The latest moves from Washington feel like déjà vu all over again – another round of "let's contain China" theater, but this time with a Russian twist. Although messy, it does sound forceful.
Trump's 50-Day Ultimatum
Trump has basically given Russia and Ukraine 50 days to sort out their mess, or else he's slapping 100% tariffs on Moscow while dragging everyone else into his economic war through "secondary sanctions." NATO's Mark Rutte has been doing the rounds in America, essentially telling China, India, and Brazil to fall in line or face the consequences.
Rutte's swagger was particularly telling: "My encouragement to these three countries, particularly, is: if you live now in Beijing, or in Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this because this might hit you very hard." The man's basically demanding these countries pick up the phone and tell Putin to behave – or else: “So please make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise, this will slam back on Brazil, on India, and on China in a massive way” Where does NATO get off making such demands?
Military Muscle-Flexing Down Under
Meanwhile, the Pentagon's been busy orchestrating its latest show of force. The Wall Street Journal couldn't contain its excitement about "Talisman Sabre" – a massive military exercise involving 40,000 troops from 19 nations kicking off in northern Australia. The message? "Hey China, look how many friends we have!"
According to the media in the west, Japan's getting particularly bold, releasing a defense white paper with even more China-bashing than last year, warning about PLA activities around Taiwan and those "grey zone" operations. The Philippines is apparently cozying up to Taiwan too. It's like watching a neighborhood gang form, except this gang has aircraft carriers.
Beijing's Strategic Patience
China's response, regardless, has been refreshingly blunt. When America dangled "tariff exemptions" as bait to get countries to ditch Chinese trade, Beijing didn't mince words: "Harming China's interests to please the Americans is like seeking a tiger's skin – China absolutely will not accept this."
The Commerce Ministry put it even more directly back in April: "appeasement does not bring peace, compromise does not lead to respect." Translation: don't even think about trading away Chinese partnerships for American promises.
The Long Game
What's fascinating is how this mirrors historical patterns. The New York Times recently marveled at China's "strategic patience," concluding that Beijing believes time is on its side. They reckon China's tech and energy investments will soon overtake America's, making all these current containment efforts "a fatal waste."
This isn't new territory for China. As the article notes, this kind of strategic discipline goes back to Mao's days at Jinggangshan. In July 1928, after breaking through the enemy's second encirclement campaign, there's even a poem commemorating the moment – "Moon over the West River: Jinggangshan."
The pattern is clear: encirclement, patience, breakthrough. Sound familiar? While Trump and his allies are busy building their new Cold War architecture, China seems content to let history be the judge. And given how the last few decades have played out, that might not be such a bad bet.
Deep Blue
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
Wang Yi just put the world on notice. "The international situation is getting more turbulent and intertwined," he said. "Unilateral bullying is intensifying. The sudden change in Venezuela has drawn high level of attention from the international community."
He then added: "We never believe that any country can play the role of world policeman, nor do we agree that any country can claim itself to be an international judge."
This isn't diplomatic chitchat. Wang Yi added that "the sovereignty and security of all countries should be fully protected under international law." It's a warning shot fired directly at Trump's so-called "New Monroe Doctrine"—and it signals China will push back hard against neo-colonialism. One story from China's past shows exactly what that means.
The Incheon Gamble
In mid-September 1950, MacArthur pulled off the audacious Incheon landing—later hailed as "the most successful gamble" in military history. He bet everything on one card: that North Korean forces would be lax defending a port with terrible geography. The bet paid off. US forces achieved total surprise, cut enemy supply lines, and reversed the early disasters of the Korean War.
The Korean Peninsula was strategically vital to both China and the Soviet Union. They planned to back North Korea. At 1:00 a.m. on October 3, Zhou Enlai urgently summoned K. M. Panikkar, India's ambassador to China. His message was blunt: "If US forces cross the 38th parallel, we cannot stand by—we will have to step in."
The CCP's official Party history records this moment and emphasizes one critical word: "管" (to intervene). The Chinese term posed a translation challenge. If the wording was too soft, the Americans might miss China's intent. So Premier Zhou asked his foreign affairs secretary, Pu Shouchang, to choose carefully. Pu used "intervene"—making China's intention crystal clear. China would step in and interfere. The message reached Washington quickly through India. Yet "the US side chose to ignore it, and US forces brazenly crossed the 38th parallel on October 7."
Crossing the Yalu
American troops didn't just cross the 38th parallel—they surged in force toward the Yalu River and raced along the China-North Korea and North Korea-Soviet borders to the Tumen River. What happened next? On October 19, 1950, the Chinese People's Volunteers crossed the Yalu River. After five successive campaigns, they drove UN forces back from the Yalu area to near the 38th parallel.
On July 27, 1953, China, North Korea, and the UN Command signed the Korean Armistice Agreement. Many believe Mao Zedong's decision to send troops delivered China a stunning victory—a weaker power defeating a stronger one. People now say China "won so hard it felt unreal."
MacArthur—that "godlike general"—couldn't let it go. After his success at Incheon, the more he thought about it, the more he wanted to expand his gains. He proposed a radical escalation to Washington: first, blockade China's coast; second, use naval and air power for unlimited bombing to completely destroy China's industrial production and infrastructure; third, bring in Nationalist (KMT) forces to "retake the mainland" and tie China down. Then fourth, MacArthur went even further with a wild proposal—drop 20 to 30 atomic bombs on China and create a radioactive "death zone" along the Yalu River between China and North Korea.
Trump's MacArthur Moment
Today's Trump thinks arresting Venezuela's president and his wife means he can bulldoze the whole world. One moment he talks about "taking over" Venezuela. The next he claims he can make personnel arrangements for that country, sending Marco Rubio to serve as a "governor." Meanwhile, US oil giants are poised to "swallow up" Venezuela's petroleum assets. Trump's ambition follows the same logic as MacArthur's back then.
MacArthur's recklessness enraged America's allies. They feared World War III. More importantly, the Soviet Union—which also possessed atomic weapons—was deeply dissatisfied with the US and warned that "bombs can be answered with bombs." President Truman faced an impossible choice: keep his war hero or keep the peace. He chose peace. On April 11, 1951, Truman fired MacArthur—ending the career of America's most celebrated general. MacArthur became one of the century's biggest cautionary tales.
The lesson is simple, direct, and brutal. Trump thinks everyone is scared of him and that he can keep throwing out ever more outrageous "deals" at will. That will invite disaster—because it crosses the tolerance threshold of the great-power balance. The major powers will have to "intervene."
How will they intervene? Great powers have many tools in their toolbox. Think of Schrödinger's cat—you open the box yourself and you'll find out the outcome. This isn't a joke. Do you dare try?
