Wisdom of Singapore's Lee Dynasty: Foretelling the Inevitable Future of the America

The Art of Diplomatic Shade

How many countries around the world are genuinely fed up with Trump's America but can actually say so out loud? Well, Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong is definitely one of them. Brilliant political insight seems to run in the family – over a decade ago, his father Lee Kuan Yew stood right in front of American officials and basically predicted that if America doesn't get its act together, it's heading for trouble. And here we are.

At a recent economics society dinner, Lee Hsien Loong threw some serious shade at America's April 2nd "Liberation Day" announcement of reciprocal tariffs. He coined a rather clever term for America: "the world, temporarily minus one" – essentially saying the global economic framework carries on just fine, thank you very much, with America sitting in the corner having a tantrum. Though let's be honest, "temporarily minus one" is a bit of a mouthful. The Financial Times wasn't messing about and just went with "call to boycott America" as their headline. Straight to the point, no diplomatic niceties.

Walking the Tightrope

Now, Singapore hosts US military bases and has been riding high for nearly 70 years, thanks to its strategic position controlling East-West shipping routes. So Lee Hsien Loong has to be incredibly careful with his words – he can't afford to completely burn bridges with Washington. If he came out swinging too hard, he'd basically be the villain calling for a global boycott of America, wouldn't he?

So he wraps it up nicely: "America − it still has to do business with the world – you still need rare earths, you still need all sorts of things from the rest, from the other countries. Temporarily, meaning maybe at some point you can come back and participate again in a more open and constructive way."

But here's where Lee Hsien Loong delivered the killer blow: "You can fail to follow economic principles, but you cannot repeal an economic law. Whether you follow it or not, the economic law exists. That is just the way the world works; that is just the way human societies work" It's like saying – look, you might think you're tough enough to ignore reality, but economic laws don't care about your feelings. The world keeps spinning regardless.

The Father's Prophetic Warning

Lee Hsien Loong's comments were already pretty pointed, but his father Lee Kuan Yew was even more direct back in 2009. During a US visit as Minister Mentor, right after witnessing the "too big to fail" financial meltdown, he started diplomatically enough. He acknowledged that China would need at least 100 years to match America's living standards and tech levels, and India would take even longer due to its diversity challenges.

But then came the sucker punch. Lee Kuan Yew laid it out plain and simple: America couldn't maintain global leadership without holding its Pacific position, and maintaining that position was impossible if the deficit kept spiraling and the dollar kept weakening. And just about everyone knows America has zero ability to manage its absolutely astronomical national debt.

The Inevitable Decline

Lee Kuan Yew didn't stop there. He basically predicted America's downfall: Once America's deficit and dollar weakness continue spiraling, and global financial players – bankers, hedge funds – see it as an unsolvable mess, they'll move their assets elsewhere. And then? Game over.

He was essentially forecasting the irreversible decline of American hegemony, but did Americans listen? Nope. They just got more reckless, and now we have Trump acting like the rest of the world doesn't exist.

You know what this reminds me of? Those classic Andy Lau lines: "I speak out loud, but you don't listen; you listen, but you don't understand; you understand, but you don't take action; you take action, but you do it wrong; you're wrong, but you don't admit it; you admit it, but you don't change; you change, but you're not convinced – so what do you want?"

Honestly, those lines probably won't be out of date for the next century. Some things never change, especially when it comes to American exceptionalism meeting economic reality.

Deep Blue

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Here we go again. China's economy is chugging along nicely, thank you very much, but somehow the Western media machine just can't seem to get its story straight. One minute they're telling us China's doomed, the next they're warning us about its unstoppable rise. It's like watching someone have an argument with themselves in the mirror.

Western Media's Bipolar China Coverage

Bloomberg's latest gem tells us that US-China trade tensions have spooked American investors. Apparently, fewer than half of companies surveyed between March and May plan to invest in China in 2025, down from 80% last year. That's the lowest level since they started asking these questions back in 2006. Sounds pretty dire, right?

But wait – there's more! AFP simultaneously drops a survey saying American companies find it "difficult to abandon the Chinese market" despite all the trade drama and tariff chaos. The head of the US-China Business Council put it bluntly: "We must stay in this highly competitive Chinese market."

So which is it? Are companies fleeing China or desperately clinging on? The information coming out of Western newsrooms is about as coherent as Trump's Twitter feed – and just as subject to dramatic mood swings between breakfast and lunch.

GDP Growth That Doesn't Fit the Narrative

When China's National Bureau of Statistics announced on July 15 that second-quarter GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year – with the first half hitting 5.3% and comfortably beating the 5% target set back in March – you'd think that might be cause for some balanced reporting. Think again.

Reuters immediately jumped in with the classic "but don't be optimistic" routine. Sure, China hit its targets, but that was only because of government policy support and factories rushing to export during the US-China trade truce, they claimed. The "export rush" might have inflated the numbers by borrowing from future overseas demand.

Some economists are already warning that Beijing will need more stimulus in the second half of the year because of weak domestic demand. In other words, even when China exceeds expectations, it's somehow still not good enough for the commentariat.

From "China Shock" to "China Shock 2.0"

What's fascinating is how we've gone from the "China collapse" narrative to the "China threat" narrative – sometimes within the same news cycle. It's like living in a parallel universe where China is simultaneously too weak to matter and too strong to be allowed.

Remember "China Shock 1.0" between 1999 and 2007? Chinese manufacturing imports supposedly caused 25% of US manufacturing workers to lose their jobs. Now we're supposedly facing "China Shock 2.0" – but this time, China's not just competing on cheap labour.

The New York Times recently laid out the stark reality: China is "aggressively advancing" into innovation fields that the US has long monopolised: aviation, artificial intelligence, communications, chips, robotics, nuclear and fusion energy, quantum computing, biomedicine, solar energy, battery technology. Between 2003 and 2007, the US led China in 60 out of 64 frontier technologies, while China led in only 3. Fast forward to 2019-2023, and the situation has completely flipped: China now leads in 57 out of 64 key technologies, while the US leads in just 7.

The Reality Check

Here's the thing Trump and his cheerleaders don't want to admit: US tariffs might have shut China out of the American market, but Chinese factories are simply shipping their toys, cars, and shoes to other countries instead. This year alone, China's trade surplus with the world is approaching $500 billion – up more than 40% from the same period last year.

So who really cares about "China's rise"? Clearly, the West doesn't dare believe it's actually happening, even when the evidence is staring them in the face. There's a phrase that perfectly captures this cognitive dissonance: China collapses daily, Gordon Chang lives to 100.

Speaking of Gordon Chang – the man who wrote "The Coming Collapse of China" back in 2001 – he turned 74 this past July 5th. Here's to hoping he stays healthy long enough to see just how wrong his predictions continue to be.