Sunday's upper house vote is expected to loom as a watershed for Japan's political map, as slumping poll numbers are threatening the country's ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, warns scholar Atsushi Koketsu.
The election campaign for Japan's House of Councilors, or the upper house of the Diet, was officially launched on July 3, and the voting is scheduled for July 20.
In last year's House of Representatives election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito failed to secure a majority of seats.
Atsushi Koketsu, emeritus professor of Yamaguchi University, believes that the Ishiba cabinet is facing challenges.
"Currently, many parties, including the media, have very high expectations for the election. The voter turnout will undoubtedly be higher than the last time or the time before that. If they go to vote this time, most of the first-time voters are expected to have a negative attitude towards the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, that is, the ruling coalition. Therefore, some reformist parties and opposition parties to the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito are believed to see significant increase on their votes this time," he said.
"I think the ruling coalition will lose more than half of the seats, and in this case, the overall result will be as most people predict. That means that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party may lose not only the House of Councilors, but also very important political strength or even the current ruling position. In this way, Japan's political situation may fall into further chaos," Koketsu continued.
Koketsu believes that, since taking office, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has achieved little success in addressing the price issue that concerns the public the most, which is the most important reason for the ruling coalition's poor election prospects.
"Japan is currently facing the problem of rising prices, and the number of people living in poverty is increasing significantly. Problems in daily life, such as rice shortages and stagnant wages, are all big problems. If we trace the root of these problems, many voters believe that the responsibility lies with the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito coalition. Although these voters supported the the ruling coalition in the past, this time they may think that it is better to pin their hopes on other political parties. That's why the support rates of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party are declining," he said.
Election of Japan's House of Councilors may affect its political landscape: expert
