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How the US-EU trade deal wards off more escalation but will raise prices and slow growth

News

How the US-EU trade deal wards off more escalation but will raise prices and slow growth
News

News

How the US-EU trade deal wards off more escalation but will raise prices and slow growth

2025-07-29 04:33 Last Updated At:04:40

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have announced a sweeping trade deal that imposes 15% tariffs on most European goods, warding off Trump's threat of a 30% rate if no deal had been reached by Aug. 1.

The tariffs, or import taxes, paid when Americans buy European products could raise prices for U.S. consumers and dent profits for European companies and their partners who bring goods into the country.

Here are some things to know about the deal:

Trump and von der Leyen's announcement, made during Trump's visit to one of his golf courses in Scotland, leaves many crucial details to be filled in.

The headline figure is a 15% tariff rate on about 70% of European goods brought into the U.S., including cars, computer chips and pharmaceuticals. It's lower than the 20% that Trump initially proposed, and lower than his threats of 50% and then 30%.

The remaining 30% of goods are still open to further decisions and negotiations.

Von der Leyen said that the two sides agreed on zero tariffs on both sides for a range of “strategic” goods: Aircraft and aircraft parts, certain chemicals, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products and some natural resources and critical raw materials. Specifics were lacking.

She said that the two sides “would keep working” to add more products to the list.

Additionally, companies in the European Union would purchase what Trump said was $750 billion (638 billion euros) worth of natural gas, oil and nuclear fuel over three years to replace Russian energy supplies that Europe is seeking to exit anyway.

Meanwhile, European companies would invest an additional $600 billion (511 billion euros) in the U.S. under a political commitment that isn't legally binding, officials said.

Brussels and Washington will shortly issue a joint statement that frames the deal but isn't yet legally binding, according to senior officials who weren't authorized to be publicly named according to European Commission policy.

The joint statement will have "some very precise commitments and others which will need to be spelled out in different ways,” a senior European Commission official said.

EU officials said that the zero tariff list could include nuts, pet food, dairy products and seafood.

Trump said that the 50% U.S. tariff on imported steel would remain. Von der Leyen said that the two sides agreed to further negotiations to fight a global steel glut, reduce tariffs and establish import quotas — that is, set amounts that can be imported, often at a lower rate or tariff-free.

Trump said that pharmaceuticals, a major import from the EU to the US, weren't included in the deal. Von der Leyen said that the pharmaceuticals issue was “on a separate sheet of paper” from Sunday's deal.

And von der Leyen said that when it came to farm products, the EU side made clear that “there were tariffs that could not be lowered,” without specifying which products.

The 15% rate removes Trump's threat of a 30% tariff. But it effectively raises the tariff on EU goods from 1.2% last year to 17% and would reduce the 27-nation bloc's gross domestic product by 0.5%, said Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief eurozone economist at Capital Economics.

Higher tariffs, or import taxes, on European goods mean sellers in the U.S. would have to either increase prices for consumers — risking loss of market share — or swallow the added cost in terms of lower profits. The higher tariffs are expected to hurt export earnings for European firms and slow the economy.

Von der Leyen said that the 15% rate was “the best we could do” and credited the deal with maintaining access to the U.S. market, and providing “stability and predictability for companies on both sides.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the deal which avoided “an unnecessary escalation in trans-Atlantic trade relations" and said that “we were able to preserve our core interests,” while adding that “I would have very much wished for further relief in trans-Atlantic trade.”

Senior French officials on Monday criticized the accord. Strategy Commissioner Clément Beaune said that the deal failed to reflect the bloc’s economic strength.

“This is an unequal and unbalanced agreement," he said. "Europe didn't wield its strength. We are the world’s leading trading power.”

While the rate is lower than threatened, "the big caveat to today’s deal is that there is nothing on paper, yet," said Carsten Brzeski, global chief of macro at ING bank.

“With this disclaimer in mind and at face value, the agreement would clearly bring an end to the uncertainty of recent months. An escalation of the U.S.-EU trade tensions would have been a severe risk for the global economy," Brzeski said.

“This risk seems to have been avoided.”

Asked if European carmakers could still profitably sell cars at 15%, von der Leyen said the rate was much lower than the current 27.5%. That has been the rate under Trump's 25% tariff on cars from all countries, plus the preexisting U.S. car tariff of 2.5%.

The impact is likely to be substantial on some companies, given that automaker Volkswagen said that it suffered a 1.3 billion-euro ($1.5 billion) hit to profits in the first half of the year from the higher tariffs.

Mercedes-Benz dealers in the U.S. have said they were holding the line on 2025 model year prices “until further notice.” The German automaker has a partial tariff shield, because it makes 35% of the Mercedes-Benz vehicles sold in the U.S. in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but the company said that it expects prices to undergo “significant increases” in coming years.

The EU also agreed to lower its tariff on cars imported from the U.S. to 2.5% from 10%.

Before Trump returned to office, the U.S. and the EU maintained generally low tariff levels in what is the largest bilateral trading relationship in the world, with around 1.7 trillion euros ($2 trillion) in annual trade.

Together the U.S. and the EU have 44% of the global economy. The U.S. rate averaged 1.47% for European goods, while the EU has averaged 1.35% for American products, according to the Bruegel think tank in Brussels.

Trump has complained about the EU’s 198 billion-euro ($232.5 billion) trade surplus in goods, which shows Americans buy more from European businesses than the other way around, and has said that the European market isn't open enough for U.S.-made cars.

However, American companies fill some of the trade gap by outselling the EU when it comes to services such as cloud computing, travel bookings and legal and financial services. And about 30% of European imports are from American-owned companies, according to the European Central Bank.

Sam McNeil reported from Brussels, and Samuel Petrequin from Paris. Thomas Adamson in Paris, and Geir Moulson in Berlin, contributed to this report.

President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shake hands after reaching a trade deal at the Trump Turnberry golf course in Turnberry, Scotland Sunday, July 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shake hands after reaching a trade deal at the Trump Turnberry golf course in Turnberry, Scotland Sunday, July 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

U.S. President Donald Trump wants to own Greenland. He has repeatedly said the United States must take control of the strategically located and mineral-rich island, which is a semiautonomous region that's part of NATO ally Denmark.

Officials from Denmark, Greenland and the United States met Thursday in Washington and will meet again next week to discuss a renewed push by the White House, which is considering a range of options, including using military force, to acquire the island.

Trump said Friday he is going to do “something on Greenland, whether they like it or not.”

If it's not done “the easy way, we're going to do it the hard way," he said without elaborating what that could entail. In an interview Thursday, he told The New York Times that he wants to own Greenland because “ownership gives you things and elements that you can’t get from just signing a document.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that an American takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO, and Greenlanders say they don't want to become part of the U.S.

This is a look at some of the ways the U.S. could take control of Greenland and the potential challenges.

Trump and his officials have indicated they want to control Greenland to enhance American security and explore business and mining deals. But Imran Bayoumi, an associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, said the sudden focus on Greenland is also the result of decades of neglect by several U.S. presidents towards Washington's position in the Arctic.

The current fixation is partly down to “the realization we need to increase our presence in the Arctic, and we don’t yet have the right strategy or vision to do so,” he said.

If the U.S. took control of Greenland by force, it would plunge NATO into a crisis, possibly an existential one.

While Greenland is the largest island in the world, it has a population of around 57,000 and doesn't have its own military. Defense is provided by Denmark, whose military is dwarfed by that of the U.S.

It's unclear how the remaining members of NATO would respond if the U.S. decided to forcibly take control of the island or if they would come to Denmark's aid.

“If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops,” Frederiksen has said.

Trump said he needs control of the island to guarantee American security, citing the threat from Russian and Chinese ships in the region, but “it's not true” said Lin Mortensgaard, an expert on the international politics of the Arctic at the Danish Institute for International Studies, or DIIS.

While there are probably Russian submarines — as there are across the Arctic region — there are no surface vessels, Mortensgaard said. China has research vessels in the Central Arctic Ocean, and while the Chinese and Russian militaries have done joint military exercises in the Arctic, they have taken place closer to Alaska, she said.

Bayoumi, of the Atlantic Council, said he doubted Trump would take control of Greenland by force because it’s unpopular with both Democratic and Republican lawmakers, and would likely “fundamentally alter” U.S. relationships with allies worldwide.

The U.S. already has access to Greenland under a 1951 defense agreement, and Denmark and Greenland would be “quite happy” to accommodate a beefed up American military presence, Mortensgaard said.

For that reason, “blowing up the NATO alliance” for something Trump has already, doesn’t make sense, said Ulrik Pram Gad, an expert on Greenland at DIIS.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a select group of U.S. lawmakers this week that it was the Republican administration’s intention to eventually purchase Greenland, as opposed to using military force. Danish and Greenlandic officials have previously said the island isn't for sale.

It's not clear how much buying the island could cost, or if the U.S. would be buying it from Denmark or Greenland.

Washington also could boost its military presence in Greenland “through cooperation and diplomacy,” without taking it over, Bayoumi said.

One option could be for the U.S. to get a veto over security decisions made by the Greenlandic government, as it has in islands in the Pacific Ocean, Gad said.

Palau, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands have a Compact of Free Association, or COFA, with the U.S.

That would give Washington the right to operate military bases and make decisions about the islands’ security in exchange for U.S. security guarantees and around $7 billion of yearly economic assistance, according to the Congressional Research Service.

It's not clear how much that would improve upon Washington's current security strategy. The U.S. already operates the remote Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland, and can bring as many troops as it wants under existing agreements.

Greenlandic politician Aaja Chemnitz told The Associated Press that Greenlanders want more rights, including independence, but don't want to become part of the U.S.

Gad suggested influence operations to persuade Greenlanders to join the U.S. would likely fail. He said that is because the community on the island is small and the language is “inaccessible.”

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen summoned the top U.S. official in Denmark in August to complain that “foreign actors” were seeking to influence the country’s future. Danish media reported that at least three people with connections to Trump carried out covert influence operations in Greenland.

Even if the U.S. managed to take control of Greenland, it would likely come with a large bill, Gad said. That’s because Greenlanders currently have Danish citizenship and access to the Danish welfare system, including free health care and schooling.

To match that, “Trump would have to build a welfare state for Greenlanders that he doesn’t want for his own citizens,” Gad said.

Since 1945, the American military presence in Greenland has decreased from thousands of soldiers over 17 bases and installations to 200 at the remote Pituffik Space Base in the northwest of the island, Rasmussen said last year. The base supports missile warning, missile defense and space surveillance operations for the U.S. and NATO.

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance told Fox News on Thursday that Denmark has neglected its missile defense obligations in Greenland, but Mortensgaard said that it makes “little sense to criticize Denmark,” because the main reason why the U.S. operates the Pituffik base in the north of the island is to provide early detection of missiles.

The best outcome for Denmark would be to update the defense agreement, which allows the U.S. to have a military presence on the island and have Trump sign it with a “gold-plated signature,” Gad said.

But he suggested that's unlikely because Greenland is “handy” to the U.S president.

When Trump wants to change the news agenda — including distracting from domestic political problems — “he can just say the word ‘Greenland' and this starts all over again," Gad said.

CORRECT THE ORDER OF SPEAKERS, FILE - Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, right, and Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen, left, speak on April 27, 2025, in Marienborg, Denmark. (Mads Claus Rasmussen/Ritzau Scanpix via AP, File)

CORRECT THE ORDER OF SPEAKERS, FILE - Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, right, and Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen, left, speak on April 27, 2025, in Marienborg, Denmark. (Mads Claus Rasmussen/Ritzau Scanpix via AP, File)

FILE - Danish military forces participate in an exercise with hundreds of troops from several European NATO members in the Arctic Ocean in Nuuk, Greenland, Sept. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi, File)

FILE - Danish military forces participate in an exercise with hundreds of troops from several European NATO members in the Arctic Ocean in Nuuk, Greenland, Sept. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi, File)

President Donald Trump listens as he was speaking with reporters while in flight on Air Force One, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, as returning to Joint Base Andrews, Md. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President Donald Trump listens as he was speaking with reporters while in flight on Air Force One, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, as returning to Joint Base Andrews, Md. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen arrives for a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, Tuesday, Jan.6, 2026. (Yoan Valat, Pool photo via AP)

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen arrives for a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, Tuesday, Jan.6, 2026. (Yoan Valat, Pool photo via AP)

FILE - A plane carrying Donald Trump Jr. lands in Nuuk, Greenland, Jan. 7, 2025. (Emil Stach/Ritzau Scanpix via AP, file)

FILE - A plane carrying Donald Trump Jr. lands in Nuuk, Greenland, Jan. 7, 2025. (Emil Stach/Ritzau Scanpix via AP, file)

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