The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Friday lowered its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 1.8 percent from the previous estimate of 2.5 percent due to higher tariffs.
In its latest trade forecast update, the WTO said recent tariff changes are expected to have an overall negative impact on the outlook for global trade.
Higher "reciprocal tariff" rates introduced by the United States on Aug 7 are expected to weigh increasingly on U.S. imports and depress exports of U.S. trading partners in the second half of 2025 and in 2026, the WTO said.
The WTO now projects world merchandise trade to grow by 0.9 percent in 2025, revising its earlier forecast of a 0.2 percent contraction made in mid-April following the U.S. announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" and a temporary 90-day pause on some of them.
The WTO noted that the revised growth outlook is largely driven by frontloading of U.S. imports, but emphasized that the forecast remains well below the pre-tariff estimate of 2.7 percent.
By region, Asian economies are projected to remain the largest positive driver of world merchandise trade growth in 2025, while North America will weigh negatively on global trade growth in both 2025 and 2026, according to the forecast.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the full impact of recent tariff measures is still unfolding.
"The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains. Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment," she said.
WTO cuts 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 1.8 pct on higher US tariffs
WTO cuts 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 1.8 pct on higher US tariffs
A former television host from Taiwan, Zhai Xuan, has made a pivotal decision to leave mainstream broadcasting in order to create content that provides a better understanding of the Chinese mainland and cross-strait relations.
Zhai, a seasoned television host with over a decade of experience in Taiwan's media landscape, recently addressed an audience at an event in Beijing, where she revealed her complete transition into independent online media.
In her remarks, she articulated her aspiration to bridge what she perceives as a significant information gap between audiences on both sides of the Strait, highlighting her commitment to fostering a deeper understanding and connection through her new endeavors.
"I was really surprised by all the fake news. There were stories saying people on the mainland can't afford tea eggs or that they live in mud houses and in Taiwan, this was the main information many people received," said Zhai.
Zhai said she initially began producing online videos to challenge such perceptions while continuing her work as a television host.
In April 2025, she travelled to the mainland with her father to fulfill her late grandfather's wish to return to his hometown. The trip, which reunited family members separated since 1949, was recorded in a video series titled "Journey to Find Our Roots", drawing attention from viewers in both Taiwan and the mainland.
"Many people in Taiwan told me that after watching, they wanted to apply for a mainland travel permit immediately and go looking for their relatives. Some had long forgotten these things, but after seeing my story, they began thinking about their hometowns and family members they had never met and decided to search for their roots," Zhai shared her story at the event.
By mid-2025, Zhai said she began to feel increasing pressure amid rising political tensions and a tightening atmosphere around cross-Strait exchanges in Taiwan.
After more than 12 years in the industry, Zhai resigned from her position, believing it was the right thing to do.
"At that moment, I felt this was a major issue，not just for me, but for Chinese people on both sides of the Strait. If I backed down then, I wouldn’t be standing on the right side," said Zhai.
Since leaving television, Zhai has broadened her online programming to encompass a range of daily-life topics, including practical guidance on applying for a mainland travel permit and using commonly employed mobile applications, in addition to content that delves into historical memory and cultural connections across the Strait.
As the debate over cross-Strait relations continues in Taiwan, Zhai said she remains committed to her current path.
Former Taiwan TV host bridges cross-Strait divide via online media
