Storm clouds are gathering. As Kim Jong Un prepares to stand alongside Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at Beijing’s September 3 military parade, the West senses an upheaval “once in a century”—and it has arrived.
This Xi’s diplomatic victory. As the BBC observed, “the Chinese leader is signalling that he may hold the geopolitical cards in this game.”
The parade, marking 80 years since victory over Japan, will spotlight China’s military might at a moment calculated to force the US to acknowledge a new reality. Washington hinted that Trump will tour Asia in October, even contemplating a summit with Xi.
Manila’s Fading Safety Net
Meanwhile, in Manila the cicadas chirp among yellowing leaves—the Philippine Navy has spotted a Chinese tug boat near Second Thomas Shoal, yet insists its grounded warship, the Madre de Dios, is untouchable. Defense Secretary Teodoro says Manila has “contingency plans” and warns that even one Filipino casualty at China’s hands would cross a “red line.” Their confidence springs from the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US, signed August 30, 1951.
But that alliance looks as aged and brittle as the Madre de Dios itself. The US uses the Philippines to contain China and control the South China Sea narrative; Manila leans on the treaty to punch above its weight. As Western influence wanes and the Global South rises, this “US–Philippines complex” is fraying.
China’s Pageant as Power Play
Xi’s parade isn’t just ceremonial pageantry—it’s a statement of epochal significance. China’s rise rejects three centuries of Western hegemony. Consider The Godfather: Michael Corleone, a decorated WWII hero, needs Mafia tutelage to execute enemies cleanly and restore his family’s honor. Likewise, the West’s vaunted combat record—soft targets bombed, coups orchestrated, all without fingerprints—reveals a gangster’s playbook masquerading as noble crusade. Only America could feign itself as the world’s shining beacon while practicing Mafia-style tradecraft.
So Manila shouldn’t overestimate its treaty safety net. The West and organized crime share one trait: exclusivity. Their inner circle is the US, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Israel — everyone else is either a squeeze or a sucker. The Philippines? It’s neither Godfather’s heir nor indispensable ally.
The Old Order’s Rusting Leaves
Western hand-wringing over China’s 80th-anniversary celebrations as an “anti-Western axis” only underscores its declining grip. As Reuters notes, the parade unites sanctioned states against a Western-led order—a tableau echoing Xu Hun’s Tang-era lament, where empire crumbles and sorrow reigns.
Autumn has come. The old order rusts, leaves turn brown, and the West’s melancholy runs wild.
Deep Blue
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
The “decapitation” hype just hit fever pitch. Here’s the bold new chatter: Japan’s defense officials told local media that if the Fujian carrier ever enters the Taiwan Strait, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces should team up with the US military and put sinking it at the top of their to-do list.
This is what some war games lay out: If China ever expands its strikes from Kyushu and Okinawa all the way down to the Nansei Islands—plus every US base along the chain—Japan would recoil into defensive mode. And then, Taiwan has no choice but to do the same, as well as the US. Suddenly Tokyo, Taipei, and Washington are all in the same foxhole. The old “defend Taiwan” story morphs into an East Asia mega-battle, where there’s zero daylight between countering threats to Taiwan and threats to Japan.
That’s why, as Taiwan commentator Lai Yi-chung pointed out back in July 2023, everyone needs ironclad, three-way security channels—whether defending Taiwan, Japan, or America.
Solid logic, the old Russian doll theory: If Taiwan’s in trouble, so is Japan, so is the US. Back under Abe, nerves in Tokyo were already frayed, serving the right wing a golden opportunity. When COVID still stalked the world in 2022, Japan mapped out a plan for 1,000 anti-ship missiles—that’s three for each of China’s 300 warships (now nearly 400, more than even America fields). Their message was clear: Chinese carriers are to be sunk before they ever manage to sail. Taiwan’s mainstream loved it. Double insurance from both the US and Japan, island stability—no need for unification nor independence. Case closed.
Then came reality—the Fujian carrier entered service, and shattered this stack of Russian dolls to dust. America sobered up first. The others? Not even worth a footnote.
Punchline to the War Game
Last weekend, China Central TV pulled back the curtain: “2 Seconds, 20+ Years—The Untold Grit Behind Fujian’s Launch.” Here’s the money quote from the expert: “Sure, our carrier jets can blast off in two seconds. But getting to that moment took more than 20 years of grit. At the start, plenty doubted. Foreign giants spent decades and still fell short. Could China pull it off? Turns out, yes we can.”
The narrative’s heart-tugging, but the real story is buried in the specs. Qiao Jia, who led the Fujian’s construction, spells it out: Unlike Liaoning or Shandong, the Fujian is China’s first homegrown, catapult-equipped aircraft carrier. And it doesn’t just use any catapult system—it’s the world’s first with a conventional-power electromagnetic catapult. Every inch of that tech pushed China’s engineers to the brink, and they didn’t blink.
Here’s the cold, hard takeaway: Don’t just stare at the Fujian in awe, or obsess over the road China traveled to get here. The killer fact is, after more than 20 years of grinding, China now owns this tech—and its world-class manufacturing machine means the next Fujian-level carrier could roll out in two years, one year, half a year, or even just two months.
No Magic, Just Muscle
Why should anyone take China at its word? Are the claims real—or just bluster? Against nonstop foreign skepticism and a wall of Western tech barricades, CCTV lays it bare: “We started from zero. No playbook. No shortcuts. Real power tech isn’t handed down or bought in a back room. Only by blazing new trails, daring to outdo the world, grinding in silence, and refusing to quit can we keep smashing ceilings—and locking core tech in Chinese hands.” In short, that “Made in China” label? It’s the one thing no rival can beat.
Let’s cut the magic act—there’s no David Copperfield here. Think Japan’s top brass wants to wait for a Trump comeback to “sink Fujian”? By all means, keep waiting. If you’ve got the nerve, then step up and show us.
