Bolsonaro's political influence in Brazil could endure despite his conviction

SAO PAULO (AP) — Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was not present in the room when a Supreme Court panel convicted and sentenced him to 27 years and three months in prison on charges of attempting a coup.

With Bolsonaro under house arrest and in poor health, his lawyer has said that the ex-leader was too sick to attend the final hearings. But despite frailty and his conviction, Bolsonaro's political influence will certainly endure.

Even after his sentencing, public opinion is divided on whether he committed a crime and should go to prison, a debate that exists even though experts agree the far-right politician will continue to have a significant influence on the political landscape of the Latin American giant.

“Maybe we’ll see something relatively new in Brazilian politics: a public figure who is under house arrest, who cannot formally take part in politics because of a conviction and ineligibility, but who still influences the course of politics,” said anthropologist Isabela Kalil, coordinator of the Extreme Right Observatory, a research group based in Minas Gerais state.

Four days before his conviction, tens of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters took to the streets across Brazil on Independence Day. Among them was Luiz Niemeyer, a 62-year-old businessman in Rio de Janeiro, who sees the former president as a “hero” who has built an unstoppable political movement.

“Ideals are not killed, ideals are not arrested," he said. "You can arrest Bolsonaro, you can kill Bolsonaro, but these ideals will not die.”

Opinion polls have shown that Bolsonaro remains central to Brazil’s polarized landscape. Even behind bars, he could determine who carries his coalition's flag into the 2026 election. Observers say that to become a competitive contender against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is expected to run for reelection, any opposition candidate must first secure the crucial electoral base and explicit support of far-right leader Bolsonaro.

Recent polls show Lula regaining his popularity, suggesting he will be a competitive candidate in the next election.

But a poll released Aug. 28 by AtlasIntel shows Lula in a statistical tie with Bolsonaro in a hypothetical election scenario, if elections were to be held then and with the same 2022 candidates on the ballot. In a first-round scenario, Bolsonaro would have 45.4% of the vote, while Lula would have 44.6%. The poll surveyed 6,238 voters online from Aug. 20 to 25, 2025. The margin of error is 1 percentage point.

The country is also divided over Bolsonaro’s conviction. A Datafolha poll from August found that 48% of Brazilians wanted to see Bolsonaro imprisoned, while 46% wanted him to remain free. The survey, which has a margin of error of 2 percentage points, was conducted in person with over 2,000 people across 130 municipalities.

“When people ask me if I think Bolsonaro is weakened, my answer is that it depends on perspective,” Kalil, from the Extreme Right Observatory group, said.

“If you consider that January 8 happened, that all of this happened, and yet he still has a base and continues to shape the direction of the far right and much of the right, I don’t see that as a sign of weakness,” she said referring to the 2023 episode when Bolsonaro supporters stormed public buildings in Brasilia in what the Prosecutor-General’s Office saw as part of his plan to remain in power after his defeat.

Silas Malafaia, an evangelical pastor and one of Bolsonaro’s most influential allies, echoes the belief that the former president remains a key political figure despite his legal troubles.

“No one is going to take Bolsonaro’s prominence away from him, whether he’s in prison or not," he said in late August, before preaching in front of a packed church in Rio de Janeiro. “He’s the greatest right-wing leader in Latin America.”

In fact, as a way to show their support, some Bolsonaro’s allies are fighting to push an amnesty bill through Congress that would allow the former leader to avoid time behind bars. Some are even calling for a restoration of his political rights, as he's been barred from running for office until 2030 as part of a separate process against him.

“We should push for his endgame to grant Bolsonaro amnesty and make him eligible to run as our candidate,” Sen. Ciro Nogueira, a former chief of staff under Bolsonaro, told The Associated Press in a phone interview. “Without him, we won't win the election. He is the main leader, the guiding figure.”

But in practice, Brazilian right-wing leaders have already started considering a Plan B.

Nogueira leads Progressistas, one of Brazil’s most powerful right-wing parties, and has named Sao Paulo Gov. Tarcísio de Freitas and Parana Gov. Ratinho Junior as potential pro-Bolsonaro presidential candidates, as well as Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s eldest son.

Both governors have joined street demonstrations called by Bolsonaro, defending his innocence. But Bolsonaro's sons, who remain central to his inner circle, do not necessarily trust them.

As the governor of Brazil’s richest and most populous state, de Freitas is a strong contender for the 2026 election. The former Bolsonaro minister and military officer, is widely seen as the right's favorite candidate.

Private messages released by the Supreme Court in August showed Eduardo Bolsonaro, who lives in the U.S. and has ties to the MAGA movement, privately accusing de Freitas of failing to defend his father in the Supreme Court while quietly preparing his own presidential run.

De Freitas has declined to comment on the accusation, and while he has not admitted he would run for the presidency, he said that if elected in 2026, he would immediately grant amnesty to Bolsonaro.

The governor attended the Independence Day demonstration in Sao Paulo on Sunday. Mimicking the former president's former speeches, de Freitas called out the justice who oversaw the coup case at the Supreme Court. “Nobody can stand the tyranny of a justice like Moraes anymore,” he said, referring to Alexandre de Moraes.

Following the verdict de Freitas said on X that Bolsonaro and the other officers convicted with him were “victims of an unfair sentence with disproportionate penalties.”

“Stay strong, President. We will remain by your side!" he said.

Bolsonaro’s conviction could mark a new chapter in Brazilian politics.

Esther Solano, a sociologist at the Federal University of Sao Paulo and who has tracked Bolsonaro voters and evangelicals since 2017, calls it “Bolsonarism 2.0.”

Her surveys show supporters believe Bolsonaro was crucial to launching a conservative crusade, but the movement is now strong enough to outlive him. New figures are emerging, Solano notes, including de Freitas, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, lawmaker Nikolas Ferreira and other evangelical leaders.

"Bolsonarism is moving into a new phase: consolidation, fortification and a new ecosystem of leaders who will rise stronger from Bolsonaro’s downfall,” she said.

Follow the AP’s coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean at https://apnews.com/hub/latin-america

The moon rises over the Supreme Court, a day before former President Jair Bolsonaro's trial, in Brasilia, Brazil, Monday, Sept. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

Supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro cry during a vigil in his support near his home where he is under house arrest in Brasilia, Brazil, Thursday, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

University students display an inflatable doll of Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro wearing prisoner garb in Brasilia, Brazil, Friday, Sept. 12, 2025, the morning after the Supreme Court convicted and sentenced him to prison for attempting a coup to remain in office despite his 2022 electoral defeat. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

Justices of the Brazilian Supreme Court meet for the verdict and sentencing phase of a trial for those charged in an alleged coup plot to keep Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro in office after his 2022 election defeat, in Brasilia, Brazil, Thursday, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro stands at the entrance of his home where he is under house arrest in Brasilia, Brazil, Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Luis Nova)

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to invoke an 1807 law and deploy troops to quell persistent protests against the federal officers sent to Minneapolis to enforce his administration's massive immigration crackdown.

The threat comes a day after a man was shot and wounded by an immigration officer who had been attacked with a shovel and broom handle. That shooting further heightened the fear and anger that has radiated across the city since an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent fatally shot Renee Good in the head.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act, a rarely used federal law, to deploy the U.S. military or federalize the National Guard for domestic law enforcement, over the objections of state governors.

“If the corrupt politicians of Minnesota don’t obey the law and stop the professional agitators and insurrectionists from attacking the Patriots of I.C.E., who are only trying to do their job, I will institute the INSURRECTION ACT, which many Presidents have done before me, and quickly put an end to the travesty that is taking place in that once great State,” Trump said in social media post.

Presidents have invoked the law more than two dozen times, most recently in 1992 by President George H.W. Bush to end unrest in Los Angeles. In that instance, local authorities had asked for the assistance.

Trump has repeatedly toyed with the idea of invoking the Insurrection Act, starting in his first term, but hasn't followed through. In 2020, for example, he threatened to use the act to quell protests after George Floyd was killed by Minneapolis police.

“I’m making a direct appeal to the President: Let’s turn the temperature down. Stop this campaign of retribution. This is not who we are,” Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, said on X.

Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said he would challenge any such action in court. He's already suing to try to stop the surge by the Department of Homeland Security, which says officers have arrested more than 2,500 people since Nov. 29 as part of an immigration operation in the Twin Cities called Metro Surge.

The operation grew when ICE sent 2,000 officers and agents to the area early in January. ICE is a DHS agency.

In Minneapolis, smoke filled the streets Wednesday night near the site of the latest shooting as federal officers wearing gas masks and helmets fired tear gas into a small crowd. Protesters responded by throwing rocks and shooting fireworks.

Demonstrations have become common in Minneapolis since Good was fatally shot on Jan. 7. Agents who have yanked people from their cars and homes have been confronted by angry bystanders demanding they leave.

“This is an impossible situation that our city is presently being put in and at the same time we are trying to find a way forward to keep people safe,” Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said.

The American Civil Liberties Union of Minnesota filed a class-action lawsuit on behalf of three people who said they were questioned or detained in recent days. The lawsuit says two are Somali and one is Hispanic; all three are U.S. citizens. The lawsuit seeks an end to what the ACLU describes as a practice of racial profiling and warrantless arrests. The government did not immediately comment.

Similar lawsuits have been filed in Los Angeles and Chicago and despite seeing initial success, have tended to fizzle in the face of appeal. In Chicago, for example, last year a judge ordered a senior U.S. Border Patrol official to brief her nightly following a lawsuit by news outlets and protesters who said agents used too much force during demonstrations. But three days later, an appeals court stopped the updates.

Homeland Security said in a statement that federal law enforcement officers on Wednesday stopped a driver from Venezuela who is in the U.S. illegally. The person drove off then crashed into a parked car before fleeing on foot, DHS said.

Officers caught up, then two other people arrived and the three started attacking the officer, according to DHS.

“Fearing for his life and safety as he was being ambushed by three individuals, the officer fired a defensive shot to defend his life,” DHS said. The confrontation took place about 4.5 miles (7.2 kilometers) from where Good was killed.

Police chief Brian O’Hara said the man who was shot did not have a life-threatening injury. O’Hara's account of what happened largely echoed that of Homeland Security, which later said the other two men were also in the U.S. illegally from Venezuela.

The FBI said several government vehicles were damaged and property inside was stolen when agents responded to the shooting. Photos show broken windows and insults made with paint. A reward of up to $100,000 is being offered for information. The FBI’s Minneapolis office did not immediately reply to messages seeking more details.

St. Paul Public Schools, with more than 30,000 students, said it would begin offering an online learning option for students who do not feel comfortable coming to school. Schools will be closed next week until Thursday to prepare for those accommodations.

Minneapolis Public Schools, which has a similar enrollment, is also offering temporary remote learning. The University of Minnesota will start a new term next week with different options depending on the class.

Madhani reported from Washington, D.C. and Golden reported from Seattle. Associated Press reporters Sophia Tareen in Chicago; Bill Barrow in Atlanta; Rebecca Santana in Washington; and Ed White in Detroit contributed.

Federal immigration officers confront protesters outside Bishop Henry Whipple Federal Building, Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Law enforcement officers at the scene of a reported shooting Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Adam Gray)

A woman covers her face from tear gas as federal immigration officers confront protesters outside Bishop Henry Whipple Federal Building, Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Adam Gray)

A protester throws back a tear gas canister during a protest after a shooting on Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Federal immigration officers confront protesters outside Bishop Henry Whipple Federal Building, Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Adam Gray)

Minneapolis City Council Member Jason Chavez, second from left, blows a whistle with other activists to warn people of federal immigration officers Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Tear gas surrounds federal law enforcement officers as they leave a scene after a shooting on Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/John Locher)

A child and family are escorted away after federal law enforcement deployed tear gas in a neighborhood during protests on Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Adam Gray)

A protester holds an umbrella as sparks fly from a flash bang deployed by law enforcement on Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Adam Gray)

Monica Travis shares an embrace while visiting a makeshift memorial for Renee Good, who was fatally shot by an ICE officer last week, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/John Locher)

A protester yells in front of law enforcement after a shooting on Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Tear gas surrounds federal law enforcement officers as they leave a scene after a shooting on Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Protesters shout at law enforcement officers after a shooting on Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

Law enforcement officers stand amid tear gas at the scene of a reported shooting Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Adam Gray)