He's the budget scorekeeper for Congress. Lately, it's been a tough job

WASHINGTON (AP) — Even for an agency accustomed to criticism, this summer’s debate over Republicans' big bill of tax breaks and spending cuts was a harsh one for the Congressional Budget Office.

“Notorious for getting it wrong,” was the judgment of Speaker Mike Johnson. “Making the same mistakes,” was the refrain from House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. President Donald Trump dismissed the CBO as “very hostile.”

For the CBO's director, Phillip Swagel, the “incoming fire,” as he calls it, is simply part of the job.

“We’re just trying to get it right and inform the Congress and the country,” he said in an interview with The Associated Press. “There’s no agenda here.”

Tasked with producing nonpartisan analysis for Congress, it’s up to Swagel and expert staffers at the CBO to assess the impact of legislation on economic growth and the nation’s finances — producing “scores,” in the parlance of Washington, that often reverberate across the dominant political debates of the day. Both major political parties often dispute the agency’s findings, particularly when their top priorities are at stake.

“Sometimes it’s noise, sometimes it’s not. But we just tune it out. Here we do our work,” Swagel said. “The thing that I do care about a lot is to make sure our work is accurate.”

It’s a low-key approach Swagel has maintained at the CBO since 2019, when congressional leaders appointed him the director after stints in both Republican and Democratic administrations. An economist by trade, Swagel brings an inquisitive and genial approach to the job, his knowledge of government forged by work at the Council of Economic Advisers in the White House, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund.

“The challenge of doing analysis now,” Swagel said, “is the changes we’re seeing in our economy are really large.”

From the Trump administration’s mass deportation plans, to the unprecedented implementation of sweeping tariffs on countries around the world, to massive tax and spending cuts passed into law this summer, assessing the trajectory of the U.S. economy has grown more difficult.

Swagel recently sat down with the AP to talk at length about analyses from his agency, the future of the nation’s entitlement programs and the pressure to remain unbiased when data itself is at risk of being politicized.

Trump's sweeping tariffs plan has posed challenges to the CBO's standard models for assessing trade.

The baseline tariffs on all countries and higher rates on Trump's “worst offenders” list are different from what "we’ve seen in more than 100 years,” Swagel said. It's a dramatic shift away from the low-tariff era that has existed since World War II. "We’re going to be looking carefully to see if those models still apply, or if tariffs that are this large, do those have effects that we just haven’t counted on?” he said.

So far, the CBO estimates the tariffs could reduce the national deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade, helping to offset the deficit increases it projects will result from the Republicans’ big bill passed this year. “It’s a huge impact,” Swagel said.

The CBO also anticipates Trump's tariffs will cause roughly two years of elevated inflation, Swagel said, causing price increases for businesses and customers. But he says those effects will be temporary.

“As the tariffs go up and the prices go up with the tariffs, inflation will be higher, but then prices will get to a higher level and be stable," he said. "And then the inflationary impact will subside."

Swagel said there are “pros and cons” when assessing how immigration affects the economy.

“Immigrants have added to our labor force, and that has meant higher GDP. It’s meant more revenue and a lower deficit,” Swagel said. “But, of course, there’s lots of issues related to immigration,” notably that “more immigrants put more fiscal pressure on state and local governments — on schools, on police, on health care systems and other things.”

“So, for the federal government, immigration is a fiscal positive," he said, "but for state and local governments, it’s the opposite.”

Trump’s tax and spending law signed in July will result in roughly 320,000 people being removed from the United States over the next 10 years, the CBO said in a recent report. It also projected the U.S. population will grow more slowly than previously expected.

That law includes roughly $150 billion to ramp up deportations over the next four years.

Swagel says it's not his place to say how immigration laws should be crafted.

“Our role is just to say what the budget impact is," he said. “It’s for the political system to figure out, ‘Well, what’s the right choices to make for the country?'"

Swagel said U.S. entitlement programs “are all part of a challenging fiscal trajectory” for the country. But the greatest obstacle to doing something about it, he said, is that “the decisions don’t need to be made right away.”

The go-broke dates for Medicare and Social Security are now 2033 and 2034, respectively. On those dates, Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund and Social Security’s trust funds. which cover old age and disability recipients, will no longer be able to pay out full benefits, according to the latest report from the programs’ trustees.

While fast approaching, the insolvency dates are a lifetime away for lawmakers always inclined to kick the can down the road on big fiscal decisions.

“We have a stable economy, an economy that’s growing," Swagel said. "We’ve seen a slowing economy in the second half of 2025, but the economy is still growing and still creating jobs. And so there’s not a crisis.”

“Difficult decisions need to be made,” he said.

The CBO has faced more aggressive attacks on its analyses during Trump's second term, often amplified by his fellow Republicans in Congress. Earlier this year, Trump called the CBO a “very hostile” organization.

Swagel downplayed the tension, saying that “our working relationship with the executive branch is smooth and routine, that when we evaluate legislation, every piece of legislation results in a phone call to some executive branch agency.”

“There is this incoming fire on the CBO,” which Swagel says is part of the political process. “I understand that sometimes that kind of criticism might be helpful in the eyes of the people making it in their political endeavors."

Unlike many other roles in government, the CBO director cannot be fired by the president — the person can be removed only by Congress.

Swagel said the work out of his office is as crucial as ever.

“It’s important for the country to have a group of analysts who don’t have an opinion — who are just saying, ‘Here’s the facts,’” he said.

“We’re not telling Congress what to do," Swagel said. "We’re not saying if something is good or bad. We’re just saying, ‘Here’s what it costs, here’s what it does.’ And that’s our role.”

Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, pauses while speaking during an interview with the Associated Press, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Police in Ohio's capital city said Wednesday that they have gathered enough evidence to link a man charged in the double homicide of his ex-wife and her husband in their Columbus home last month to the killings.

Columbus Police Chief Elaine Bryant said in an Associated Press interview that authorities now believe Michael David McKee, 39, a vascular surgeon who was living in Chicago, was the person seen walking down a dark alley near Monique and Spencer Tepe's home in video footage from the night of the murders. His vehicle has also been identified traveling near the house, and a firearm found in his Illinois residence also traced to evidence at the scene, she said.

An attorney representing McKee could not be identified through court listings.

His arrest Saturday capped off nearly two weeks of speculation surrounding the mysterious killings that attracted national attention. No obvious signs of forced entry were found at the Tepes’ home. Police also said no weapon was found there, and murder-suicide was not suspected. Further, nothing was stolen, and the couple’s two young children and their dog were left unharmed in the home.

“What we can tell you is that we have evidence linking the vehicle that he was driving to the crime scene. We also have evidence of him coming and going in that particular vehicle,” Bryant told the AP. “What I can also share with you is that there were multiple firearms taken from the property of McKee, and one of those firearms did match preliminarily from a NIBIN (ballistic) hit back to this actual homicide.”

Bryant said that the department wants the public to keep the tips coming. Investigators were able to follow up on every phone call, email and private tip shared from the community to the department and some of that information allowed them to gather enough evidence to make an arrest, she said.

That work culminated in the apprehension of McKee in Rockford, Illinois, where the hospital where he worked — OSF Saint Anthony Medical Center — has said it is cooperating with the investigation. He has been charged with premeditated aggravated murder in the shooting deaths. Monique Tepe, who divorced McKee in 2017, was 39. Her husband, a dentist whose absence from work that morning prompted the first call to police, was 37.

McKee waived his right to an extradition hearing on Monday during an appearance in the 17th Judicial Circuit Court in Winnebago County, Illinois, where he remains in jail. Bryant said officials are working out details of his return to Ohio, with no exact arrival date set. His next hearing in Winnebago County is scheduled for Jan. 23.

Columbus Mayor Andrew Ginther said Wednesday that the city doesn't prioritize high-profile cases any more than others, noting that the city's closure rate on criminal cases exceeds the national average. The city also celebrated in 2025 its lowest level of homicides and violent crime since 2007, Ginther said.

“Every case matters. Ones that receive national attention, and those that don’t,” he told the AP. “Every family deserves closure and for folks to be held accountable, and the rest of the community deserves to be safe when dangerous people are taken off the street.”

Ginther said it is vital for central Ohioans to continue to grieve with the Tepes' family, which includes two young children, and loved ones, as they cope with “such an unimaginable loss.”

“I want our community to wrap our arms around this family and these children for years to come,” he said.

This undated booking photo provided by the Winnebago County Sheriff's Office Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026, shows Michael David McKee, who was charged in the killing of his ex-wife, Monique Tepe, and her husband Spencer Tepe at their Columbus, Ohio, home on Dec. 30, 2025. (Winnebago County Sheriff's Office via AP)

Spencer and Monique Tepe's home in Columbus, Ohio, on Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Patrick Aftoora-Orsagos)

This image taken from video shows Michael David McKee walking into the courtroom on Monday, Jan. 12, 2026, in Rockford, Ill. (WIFR News/Pool Photo via AP)