Cui Jianchun, Commissioner of the MFA Office in Hong Kong, called in the US Consul General in Hong Kong on September 30 to make solemn representations regarding her actions after taking office. Commissioner Cui urged Julie Eadeh to abide by the basic principles of international relations such as non-interference in Hong Kong’s internal affairs. He spelled out clearly four “Don’ts” to her: don’t meet with people you shouldn’t, don’t collude with anti-China elements, don’t fund or incite anti-China acdtivities, and don’t meddle in Hong Kong’s national security cases.
This wasn’t Cui’s first shot across Eadeh’s bow. Just a week earlier, when Eadeh arrived, Cui had already told her to stick to her role without poking her nose into Hong Kong or China’s internal affairs. Two warnings in a week, made public and direct, are about as clear as you can get. The message? Step over the red line, and there will be consequences.
Let’s break down the Eadeh saga from a few key angles to really understand what’s at stake.
1. Breaking Promises and Playing Politics
Appointing a consul requires the host’s okay, and China gave it to Eadeh only after the US promised she wouldn’t meddle in Hong Kong’s affairs. Eadeh was no stranger—back in 2019 she was the head of the political section at the US Consulate in Hong Kong and Macau, where she was known as a “subversion expert.” China was wary and once blocked her appointment. Only after US lobbying and promises did China give the green light.
But as soon as Eadeh set foot in Hong Kong, she held receptions and renewed ties with major opposition figures like Anson Chan and Emily Lau, blatantly breaking that promise. China can’t just ignore that.
2. The U.S.-China Chessboard Has Shifted
Years ago, the US cleverly used Hong Kong’s so-called democracy movement to stir up internal conflicts and then pulled the Hong Kong issue into Sino-American talks as leverage—not to support democracy, but to gain advantages elsewhere. Back then, when relations were relatively good, this game worked in America’s favor.
But everything changed after the 2018 trade war. By 2021, when Biden came in, Chinese officials at the Anchorage meeting challenged the US, saying China now “speaks by its position of strength.” The whole Sino-American game changed, with every negotiation on the verge of collapse. If Eadeh keeps stirring the pot with old tactics, it won’t bring the US trade gains—it’ll only break ties further.
3. Trump’s Priority -- American Soybean Farmers
Right now, Trump is keen to sit down with Xi Jinping—face to face—to cut through the trade mess. To Trump, the soybean farmers are what really matters. On October 1, Trump said on social media that he’ll meet Xi at the APEC summit late October to “have a good talk” about China not buying American soybeans. And he vowed to “make soybeans and other crops great again.”
Trump’s clearly putting American interests first, leaning into isolationism. Defense News leaked that the US is prioritizing “defending the homeland and the Western Hemisphere” over Asia. Trump’s cabinet changes—from hawkish Mike Pompeo to more moderate Rubio as Secretary of State—reflect this shift.
Old Hawks Out, New Path In
Pompeo was a notorious China hawk, calling China an “oppressor” and framing the rivalry as a battle between “freedom and tyranny.” His 2020 Nixon Library speech was basically America’s Cold War 2.0 declaration. But that’s behind us now. Trump dumped Pompeo, signaling a desire to reset relations with China.
Imagine if Eadeh keeps cozying up with opposition leaders or meddles in the Jimmy Lai trial. That’s crossing the line in Beijing’s book. The blowback would hit not just Eadeh, but also State Secretary Rubio.
After the 2019 chaos, Hong Kong people fear a rerun and detest foreign meddling that destabilizes Hong Kong. Eadeh should just do her job, follow Trump’s orders, and help push US-China ties back to normal. Otherwise, China won’t just talk next time.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
In the high-stakes game of global politics, nothing is free. You give to get, and the same ironclad rule applies to US-China trade negotiations.
On September 25th, Trump was all smiles as he signed an executive order to push through the acquisition of TikTok's US operations. He made sure to emphasize that the deal would meet the national security demands of a 2024 law. Meanwhile, his Vice President, Vance, threw out a figure, valuing TikTok at $14 billion. As he signed the order, Trump couldn't resist boasting to reporters about how he single-handedly brought in shareholders for the new US version of TikTok. The media quickly named the players: Oracle and private equity firm Silver Lake, among others, would be the main investors, scooping up a 50% stake.
Trump's Hollow Victory
To hear Trump tell it, he'd scored a massive win, successfully forcing the Chinese company ByteDance to sell off a controlling stake in TikTok's American business. But Trump was only telling half the story—the half that lets him brag to his base that he's "winning bigly." While China has remained characteristically low-key about the deal, details disclosed by media in both mainland China and the US paint a completely different picture.
In fact, the real framework of the deal, as outlined by mainland China's Guancha.cn, is far more clever. TikTok’s US business isn't being sold off as a single entity. It's being split into two separate companies. The foreign-controlled joint venture that Vance mentioned is just one part of the equation, a company called the "TikTok US Data Security Joint Venture," and it certainly doesn't represent the whole of TikTok's US operations. According to earlier estimates from Bloomberg, the entire US business is worth closer to $40 billion, not a mere $14 billion.
The Two-Company Structure
Here’s the breakdown of the operational plan that China and the US actually hammered out. It involves two main companies. The primary one is the "ByteDance TikTok US Company." This entity will remain the core operating company, handling all the crucial commercial activities like e-commerce, brand advertising, global connectivity, and product support. Crucially, this main US company will remain 100% owned by ByteDance.
The company Trump and Vance keep talking about is the other entity in this dual-body structure: the "TikTok US Data Security Joint Venture." This is where things get clever. This company will be responsible for handling US user data, content moderation, and software security. ByteDance will hold a 19.9% stake, conveniently keeping it just under the 20% threshold to avoid being classified as an associate company under US law. However, ByteDance's existing global shareholders will hold another 30.1%, while new investors like Oracle will have a combined 50%. But make no mistake: as a single shareholder, ByteDance's 19.9% stake makes it the largest individual shareholder.
And what about control? The board will have seven seats. ByteDance gets one, its existing global shareholders get two, the new investors get three, and an independent director gets the last one. But here’s the real kicker: the algorithm. ByteDance retains full ownership of its intellectual property. It will simply license the relevant IP to the "TikTok US Data Security Joint Venture" and collect licensing fees in return.
Who Really Profits?
When you analyze this two-company solution, the genius of China's strategy becomes crystal clear. The wholly-owned "ByteDance TikTok US Company" keeps 100% control of the real money-makers—e-commerce and brand advertising, which are TikTok's main revenue streams. Meanwhile, the US joint venture is saddled with all the high-cost, non-profit-making operations like data and content security. Content moderation alone requires hiring a massive number of staff. It's expected that this US joint venture will end up charging the main TikTok US subsidiary for its services, making it function more like a landlord with a stable rental income than a dynamic commercial enterprise.
This setup isn't even new; it mirrors how American tech giants operate in China. Take Apple, for instance. All its operational data in China is stored with "Cloud Big Data (Guizhou)," which is a 100% Chinese state-owned enterprise in which Apple holds no stake at all. In contrast, TikTok still retains the single largest shareholding in its new "US Data Security Joint Venture."
A Strategic Play, Not a Sell-Out
Many outsiders mistakenly thought TikTok was franchising its entire operation to the US joint venture, like a Disney theme park. The reality negotiated between Trump and China is far more limited. Only the cost centers—the data and security businesses—were handed over. This also explains why a company like Oracle was so keen to get involved. Managing data and security is Oracle's bread and butter. By investing in the joint venture and then taking on that business, Oracle can easily calculate its return on investment.
So, let's call a spade a spade. After tough negotiations, China only ceded its data security business to a US-led joint venture while keeping total control over TikTok’s profitable US commercial operations. Trump gets to put on a show for the cameras, but in reality, China has walked away with a major victory.
Xi's Grand Chessboard
This isn't just my analysis. The Wall Street Journal's chief China correspondent, Lingling Wei, hit the nail on the head in a September 24th article. She pointed out that while Trump was busy grabbing the TikTok deal, Chinese President Xi Jinping was playing a much larger game of chess. The Journal believes Trump, desperate for a quick win to show off before the election, couldn't afford endless negotiations with no trophy. He needed a result, any result, to avoid looking weak.
For China, the calculus was completely different. By offering Trump a small, face-saving compromise, China secured something far more valuable: a stable future. In the next year, Trump might visit China, and President Xi might travel to the US for the G20 summit. This effectively locks in a one-year cooling-off period for US-China relations. For China, time is the ultimate prize. The Wall Street Journal concluded that President Xi got what any grand strategist values most: an entire year, all while keeping firm control of the situation.
I call this the "peach theory." China tossed Trump a small peach to execute President Xi's grand strategy. With China's incredible pace of development, one year for it is like five years for the US. By buying time to strengthen itself on all fronts, China ensures it will leave its opponent further and further behind.
Lo Wing-hung
