The saying “a promise is worth a thousand pieces of gold” comes from the story of Ji Bu in the Records of the Grand Historian, where people said, "a single promise from Ji Bu is better than a hundred catties of gold." But President Trump? His promises worth not a single penny —nobody trusts him anymore.
Trade War Flames Ignite
The US-China trade war has burst back into the spotlight with Trump threatening a brutal 100% tariff on Chinese goods, but his statements keep flip-flopping. On October 10, just hours after losing out on the Nobel Peace Prize, Trump launched a near-thousand-word tirade against China. He called China “suddenly hostile” due to export controls on rare earths, even suggesting that there’s no reason to continue his plan to meet with President Xi Jinping during the APEC summit in Korea. Then, he threatened to slap a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1.
Right after the post, US stocks plummeted. The seven tech giants lost about US$770 billion in a single day. Trump looked rattled. When asked later if he’d cancel meeting Xi, he responded hesitantly: “I may still meet with Xi Jinping, but I don’t know... things could change by then.” Then the next day, he softened, saying on social media, “Don’t worry about China... President Xi’s just in a bad mood. He doesn’t want his country in recession — and neither do I.”
First, who struck first? Trump makes it sound like China surprised everyone with hostile export controls, but China’s Ministry of Commerce laid out that it’s the US imposing escalating restrictions since the recent Madrid talks—adding thousands of firms to various embargo lists and hitting multiple sectors with sanctions. Is Trump genuinely clueless or just playing the victim card?
Who’s Really Mad? Hint: It’s Not Xi
Trump claims President Xi is just “in a bad mood.” Truth is, China doesn’t make emotion-driven moves — the US does. Trump never admits defeat. Losing the Nobel Prize wound him badly with nowhere to lash out but a thousand-word screed threatening tariffs.
Trump says he wants “to help China, not hurt China,” and that Xi doesn’t want his country in recession. Flip that around: it’s Trump terrified of a Wall Street meltdown and US recession.
China controls rare earth supplies crucial for semiconductors, while the US has no backup plan. If the trade war escalates, China’s economy might slow down, but the US could stall outright. The Wall Street Journal called China’s rare-earth controls an “economic nuclear bomb” that threatens US AI industries and could drag the US economy into recession.
The Market’s Bet: Trump Always Backs Off
With Trump constantly softening his stance, traders call it the “TACO trade”—Trump Always Chickens Out. His tariff threats are seen as bluffs that will fade away quietly. Who would’ve thought a US President’s word could be worth nothing?
Meanwhile, China’s playing a serious game.
Previous US-China talks hit rough waters. The US only wanted China to concede by purchasing soybeans, while itself stubbornly refusing to lift the 20% fentanyl tariff, all the while pushing for a leaders’ summit.
China then played its big card: breaking free from the small-scale negotiation framework altogether — demanding a comprehensive showdown where tariffs and the many US bans on China be discussed all together, or there would be no talks at all.
The US wasn’t prepared for this breakdown, having no backup plans for rare earths and superhard materials. It had simply bet China wouldn’t make this bold move, but China did. After Trump’s outburst fueled by anger, he now had to respond calmly—hence the softer tone and attempts to re-engage in talks.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
Cui Jianchun, Commissioner of the MFA Office in Hong Kong, called in the US Consul General in Hong Kong on September 30 to make solemn representations regarding her actions after taking office. Commissioner Cui urged Julie Eadeh to abide by the basic principles of international relations such as non-interference in Hong Kong’s internal affairs. He spelled out clearly four “Don’ts” to her: don’t meet with people you shouldn’t, don’t collude with anti-China elements, don’t fund or incite anti-China acdtivities, and don’t meddle in Hong Kong’s national security cases.
This wasn’t Cui’s first shot across Eadeh’s bow. Just a week earlier, when Eadeh arrived, Cui had already told her to stick to her role without poking her nose into Hong Kong or China’s internal affairs. Two warnings in a week, made public and direct, are about as clear as you can get. The message? Step over the red line, and there will be consequences.
Let’s break down the Eadeh saga from a few key angles to really understand what’s at stake.
1. Breaking Promises and Playing Politics
Appointing a consul requires the host’s okay, and China gave it to Eadeh only after the US promised she wouldn’t meddle in Hong Kong’s affairs. Eadeh was no stranger—back in 2019 she was the head of the political section at the US Consulate in Hong Kong and Macau, where she was known as a “subversion expert.” China was wary and once blocked her appointment. Only after US lobbying and promises did China give the green light.
But as soon as Eadeh set foot in Hong Kong, she held receptions and renewed ties with major opposition figures like Anson Chan and Emily Lau, blatantly breaking that promise. China can’t just ignore that.
2. The U.S.-China Chessboard Has Shifted
Years ago, the US cleverly used Hong Kong’s so-called democracy movement to stir up internal conflicts and then pulled the Hong Kong issue into Sino-American talks as leverage—not to support democracy, but to gain advantages elsewhere. Back then, when relations were relatively good, this game worked in America’s favor.
But everything changed after the 2018 trade war. By 2021, when Biden came in, Chinese officials at the Anchorage meeting challenged the US, saying China now “speaks by its position of strength.” The whole Sino-American game changed, with every negotiation on the verge of collapse. If Eadeh keeps stirring the pot with old tactics, it won’t bring the US trade gains—it’ll only break ties further.
3. Trump’s Priority -- American Soybean Farmers
Right now, Trump is keen to sit down with Xi Jinping—face to face—to cut through the trade mess. To Trump, the soybean farmers are what really matters. On October 1, Trump said on social media that he’ll meet Xi at the APEC summit late October to “have a good talk” about China not buying American soybeans. And he vowed to “make soybeans and other crops great again.”
Trump’s clearly putting American interests first, leaning into isolationism. Defense News leaked that the US is prioritizing “defending the homeland and the Western Hemisphere” over Asia. Trump’s cabinet changes—from hawkish Mike Pompeo to more moderate Rubio as Secretary of State—reflect this shift.
Old Hawks Out, New Path In
Pompeo was a notorious China hawk, calling China an “oppressor” and framing the rivalry as a battle between “freedom and tyranny.” His 2020 Nixon Library speech was basically America’s Cold War 2.0 declaration. But that’s behind us now. Trump dumped Pompeo, signaling a desire to reset relations with China.
Imagine if Eadeh keeps cozying up with opposition leaders or meddles in the Jimmy Lai trial. That’s crossing the line in Beijing’s book. The blowback would hit not just Eadeh, but also State Secretary Rubio.
After the 2019 chaos, Hong Kong people fear a rerun and detest foreign meddling that destabilizes Hong Kong. Eadeh should just do her job, follow Trump’s orders, and help push US-China ties back to normal. Otherwise, China won’t just talk next time.
Lo Wing-hung
