Artificial intelligence (AI) could be both an opportunity and a risk for the world economy, according to officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
AI's contribution to global economic growth is expected to be significant, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a press briefing during the 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF, held from October 13 to 18 in Washington, D.C., US.
"Our assessment, our view at this point, is that indeed AI will contribute to growth — somewhere between 0.1 and 0.8 percent. This is significant. Remember, we are stuck at around 3 percent growth right now. And if we were to extract that kind of boost of growth, that would be very significant for the world," she said.
The risk is that we may end up in a world with increased productivity, but it is also a source of divergence within and across countries, Georgieva said, adding that this is why preparedness really matters.
The IMF pointed out in its latest World Economic Outlook that today's surging investment in artificial intelligence echoes the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. Optimism has driven up technology investment, raised stock valuations, and stimulated consumption through capital gains. However, the potential risk is that if AI fails to meet high profit expectations, the market may significantly reprice, leading to a series of adverse effects, such as eroding wealth and dampening consumption.
"We think of AI as a two-sided risk, because in the near term there's a lot of investment in AI, [and] stock markets' valuation have surged. So, in the near term, there may be a risk of some of that kind of adjusting and unwinding, and we draw the similarity with the dot-com period," said Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF's Research Department.
Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, said artificial intelligence is giving the global economy a lift but also contributing to concerns about stretched asset valuations.
"So, at this point in time, we do see that the world economy is being helped by developments in artificial intelligence, in particular, and that technology in general. At the same time, it is true, and you can see that documented in the Global Financial Stability Report, that asset valuations are stretched. That is something that leads us to be concerned with the possibility of financial disturbances," he said.
AI both opportunity, risk for world economy: IMF officials
