Chinese airlines have refunded more than 500,000 tickets for flights to Japan within three days after Chinese government issued a travel alert for Japan-bound Chinese tourists amid heightened bilateral tensions.
On Nov. 15, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its embassy and consulates in Japan urged Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan in the near future, citing recent rising attacks targeting Chinese nationals in Japan.
More than a dozen Chinese airlines, including the three biggest companies China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China and some private carriers, have offered free refund and rescheduling options to passengers who have booked flights to Japan between Nov. 15 and Dec. 31.
Experts warn that Japan could see a 50-percent drop in visitors from China if the Japanese government fails to take action to rebuild mutual trust damaged by recent erroneous remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi over China's Taiwan.
"This (travel cancellation) actually reflect a deeper logic on two levels. The first is the restructuring of consumer psychology. A McKinsey survey shows that safety has become the top priority for Chinese outbound tourists. When diplomatic rhetoric crosses red lines, Chinese tourists quickly activate risk-avoidance mechanisms -- this is no longer mere emotional boycott," said Qiao Shanxun, executive director of the Low-altitude Economic Development Research Center of Henan Industry and Trade Vocational College.
Data released by Japan's National Tourism Organization shows that in the first nine months of this year, nearly 7.5 million tourists from the Chinese mainland visited Japan, making it the largest source of visitors to the country.
"This amounts to a hemorrhage for Japan's second-largest pillar industry. Data shows that inbound tourism spending has surged to become Japan's second-largest export sector, trailing only the automotive industry. In 2024, Chinese tourists not only arrived in large numbers but also topped the spending charts. The cancellation of around 500,000 tickets will directly translate to the evaporation of hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars in immediate spending," Qiao said.
Qiao predicted that the number of Chinese tourists to Japan will drop by 40 to 50 percent if the Japanese government does not take proper measures to repair the mutual trust between the two countries.
"For future trends, we can take the 'THAAD' crisis as a reliable historical model for assessment. In the short term -- through the end of this year -- the China-Japan civil aviation markets will enter a deep freeze, with strong inertial effects. Back then, the 'THAAD' crisis led to a nearly 50-percent drop in the number of Chinese tourists to South Korea, and full recovery took as long as 18 months. The current cancellation of 500,000 tickets represents only the initial reaction," he said.
Wave of cancellations hits Japan-bound travel from China amid diplomatic tensions
