AP mapping shows France's poorest regions backing Le Pen's party as support for Macron wanes

PARIS (AP) — The date was May 7, 2017. Addressing cheering supporters, the newly elected leader of France, Emmanuel Macron, made a promise that now, in his waning 18 months as president, lies in tatters.

The rival that Macron defeated that day, Marine Le Pen, had secured 10,638,475 votes. They were nowhere near enough for the far-right leader to win. But they were too numerous for Macron to ignore, a best-ever watershed at the ballot box for Le Pen’s once-ostracized National Front party that she inherited from her Holocaust-denying father.

Gazing out over a sea of French flags, Macron acknowledged “anger” and “distress” that he said motivated Le Pen voters. He pledged to do everything to win them over, “so they no longer have any reason to vote for the extremes.”

But since then, Le Pen's us-against-them nativist politics targeting immigrants, Muslims and the European Union have made millions more converts. Her National Rally party, rebranded in 2018 to broaden its appeal and shed its sulfurous links to her dad, Jean-Marie Le Pen, has become the largest in parliament and has never appeared closer to power, with the next presidential and legislative elections scheduled in 2027.

Many factors explain why Le Pen has gone from strength to strength. Some are intrinsic: The 57-year-old cat-loving mother of three is more polished and popular than her gruff ex-paratrooper father who had multiple convictions for inciting racial hatred and for downplaying Nazi atrocities in World War II. He died in January.

Others are external and include voter disgruntlement over wealth inequality that has worsened significantly under Macron.

An additional 1.2 million people have fallen below the poverty threshold in the world’s seventh-largest economy since the 2017 election and 2022 reelection of France's pro-business president.

The former investment banker slashed business taxes and watered down a wealth tax to boost France's allure for investment. Left-wing critics labeled Macron "president of the rich.”

The poverty rate was 13.8% when Macron took power and had barely shifted during the previous presidency of François Hollande, a Socialist.

By 2023, into Macron's second term and the most recent year with official data from the French national statistics agency, the poverty rate had ballooned to 15.4%, which is its highest level in nearly 30 years of measurements.

The following year, National Rally triumphed in French voting for the European Parliament. So heavy was the defeat for his centrist camp that Macron stunned France by then dissolving the National Assembly.

Again, National Rally surged in the ensuing legislative election. It didn't come close to winning a majority — no party did. But with 123 of the 577 lawmakers, National Rally vaulted past all other parties and surpassed its previous best of 89 legislators elected in 2022.

Put bluntly: the worse off France becomes, the better National Rally seems to fare.

Mapping by The Associated Press both of poverty in France and of the Le Pen vote in the four French legislative elections since she took over her father's party in 2011 show how both have grown.

The maps show particularly evident progress by National Rally in some of France’s poorest regions, especially in what have become National Rally strongholds: the deindustrialized northeast of France and along its Mediterranean coast.

Region-by-region poverty rates were mapped through 2021, beyond which the national statistics agency INSEE doesn't have data for all 96 of mainland France's regions. The AP mapped support for the National Front and then National Rally by using the party's showing in the first rounds of voting in legislative elections in 2012, 2017, 2022 and 2024.

“We clearly see that the National Rally vote is very strongly correlated with issues of poverty, of difficulties with social mobility" and with voters “who are most pessimistic about the future of their children or their personal situation,” said Luc Rouban, a senior researcher at Paris' elite Sciences Po school of political sciences who studies the party.

François Ouzilleau, who stood for Macron's party in the 2022 legislative election and lost to a National Rally winner in his district in Normandy west of Paris, puts it more simply.

“It feeds off anger and people's problems," he said.

But poverty is only part of the Le Pen success story and her appeal isn't limited to voters who struggle to make ends meet. Combating immigration, the party's bread and butter since its foundation, remains a central plank of Le Pen-ism.

Rouban sees National Rally similarities with the playbook of U.S. President Donald Trump.

“They're doing Trump-ism à la française,” he said. “They say, ‘We’re wary of the justice system,' like Trump. ‘We’re taking back control of our national borders,' like Trump."

The party says that its proposals to slash France's spending on migrants and on the EU and to redirect money to people's pockets by reducing the costs of energy and other necessities appeal to voters in financial need.

“The French have clearly understood that the ones defending the purchasing power of the working and middle classes are the National Rally," Laure Lavalette, a parliamentary spokesperson for the party, told the AP.

Lavalette represents the southern Var region, one of National Rally's new strongholds as Macron's popularity has plummeted.

In legislative elections that followed his election in 2017, Le Pen's party failed to win any seats in Var. But after Macron's reelection in 2022, National Rally grabbed seven of Var's eight seats and repeated that feat in 2024.

Poverty rates in the Var have long surpassed the national average, the AP's mapping shows.

Lavalette says that making ends meet is “crazy difficult" for some of her constituents and that “some tell me that they have to chose between eating or heating."

The 2024 legislative election produced a fractured parliament with fragile minority governments collapsing one after the other. To untangle that knot, Macron could have dissolved the National Assembly again this year, triggering a new election.

That is what National Rally wanted, buoyed by polls suggesting it could perhaps win enough seats to form its first government.

Mindful that such an outcome could saddle him with a National Rally prime minister for the remainder of his presidency, Macron held his fire.

And for now at least, enough lawmakers have rallied around Macron’s prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, to keep him afloat, mindful of the risk of losing their seats if Macron called voters back to the ballot boxes.

“There's a sword of Damocles hanging over us, it's called the National Rally,” said Ouzilleau, who serves as mayor in the Normandy town of Vernon and is a long-time friend of Lecornu.

He says voters have increasingly been telling him that they are ready to test-drive National Rally, breaking decades of uninterrupted rule by mainstream parties.

"It's been two or three years that we've been hearing this: 'We've tried everything except the National Rally, so what is the risk?'" he said.

William Jarrett reported from London.

FILE - French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, center, greets people as she campaigns in a market in Pertuis, southern France, Friday, April 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Daniel Cole, File)

FILE - Supporters of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen leave after a campaign rally in Perpignan, southern France, Thursday, April 7, 2022. (AP Photo/Joan Mateu Parra, File)

FILE - A woman goes home with a meal distributed by 'Laissez Les Servir' (Let Them Serve) in the Fauvettes projects, Pierrefitte-sur-Seine, north of Paris, Thursday, April 29, 2021. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus, File)

FILE - Residents line up during a distribution to collect soap, vegetables, fruits and other staples distributed by volunteers from community organizations of ACLEFEU in Clichy-sous-Bois, north suburb of Paris, Wednesday, April 22, 2020 as a nationwide confinement continues to counter the COVID-19. (AP Photo/Francois Mori, File)

FILE - French far-right leader Marine Le Pen reacts as she meets supporters and journalists after the release of projections based on the actual vote count in select constituencies , Sunday, June 30, 2024 in Henin-Beaumont, northern France. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus, File)

BETHLEHEM, West Bank (AP) — Mohamad Al-Assi ran beneath the concrete wall as the sun rose over Bethlehem. His Nikes pounded the gravel, his breath fogging the air as graffiti and paint splatter blurred past with each stride.

The road along the barrier separating Israel from the occupied West Bank makes up a stretch of a marathon route that Al-Assi and thousands of others ran on Friday. The event is open to people in other parts of the world running in solidarity with the Palestinians and another, shorter race was happening in Gaza.

The race, known as the Palestine Marathon, was held for the first time in three years and was among the first big international events in the West Bank since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. Festivals, conferences and holiday festivities that once drew thousands have been scaled back or canceled because of the war in Gaza and heightened Israeli restrictions.

It marked a turning point for Al-Assi, 27, who was released from Israeli detention six months ago. Video from that day shows him gaunt-faced and hollow-eyed, his once muscular legs weakened after more than two and a half years of prison.

He began training in December, gradually upping his mileage every month since. He ran 62 miles (100 kilometers) that first month, and in April reached 135 miles (217 kilometers), according to his account on the tracking app Strava.

He jogs in the morning after his mother wakes him up in their home in Dheisheh, a Palestinian refugee camp made up of graffiti-covered cinderblock homes in tangled alleyways.

“The main difficulties we face are the cars on the roads and the presence of Israeli security forces along the route where I train,” Al-Assi said.

He had to suspend his training several times because of military operations in the camp.

“I would return home feeling hopeless because I couldn't do what I had intended to do,” Al-Assi said.

In the West Bank, runners cannot complete a 26.2-mile (42.2-kilometer) course without hitting a checkpoint or military gate, which is why Friday's marathon route looped around the same circuit twice.

They ran up through the narrow streets of two Palestinian refugee camps and down to a farming town next to Bethlehem where fields are divided by the concrete wall, barbed wire and cameras. The course hooked back to finish at Bethlehem’s Manger Square.

Organizers say the race highlights restrictions facing Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, where checkpoints can disrupt even routine commutes and where open land for hiking, biking and running is increasingly taken by Israeli settlements and outposts.

“Marathon runners anywhere may ‘hit a wall’ under the physical and emotional strain of completing the 42-kilometer race course," they said on the marathon's website.

But in the West Bank, they added, "runners literally hit the Wall.”

At a time when the West Bank’s economy is struggling and in the shadow of Gaza's fragile ceasefire and stalled rebuilding efforts, the atmosphere in Bethlehem was celebratory. Crowds gathered near the Church of the Nativity to cheer runners at the race's early morning start and finish. Bagpipes blared and drummers pounded out traditional rhythms through streets along the route.

On a beachside road in Nuseirat in central Gaza — which is roughly the length of a marathon — 15 disabled people, including amputees, ran a 2K, and a couple thousand of people ran a 5K. Thirteen years after the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, known as UNRWA, canceled a 2013 marathon because Hamas forbade women from participating, the women were back.

Haya Alnaji, a 22-year-old woman who ran in the 5K, said the number of people taking part reflected that Palestinians in Gaza were determined to live and persevere despite the devastation wrought by more than two years of war.

“All of Gaza loves sports,” she said.

Al-Assi was arrested in April 2023, and imprisoned under administrative detention, which allows Israel to hold detainees for months without charge. Between 3,000 and 4,000 Palestinians are being held under that system, according to Israeli rights groups and the Palestinian Prisoners Society.

In October 2023, Al-Assi was sentenced for transferring money to suspicious entities, a charge he denies. Israel closely monitors money transfers — particularly to Gaza — for fear that funds could end up in the hands of militants. Palestinians, however, say donations and charitable contributions are often swept up in the dragnet. Israel’s military, Shin Bet and Prison Service did not answer questions about Al-Assi's charges.

In Israeli prisons — where detainees routinely complain of inadequate diets — Al-Assi said nearly everyone goes hungry. The weight he lost eroded the endurance built through 10 years of training.

“I have more muscle mass than fat, so when I lost weight, the loss came from my muscles rather than fat,” he said. “This had a major impact on my physical fitness.”

He also had to regain the mental fortitude to run a marathon.

“I was emotionally shattered after spending such a long period in prison,” he said.

On Friday, he collapsed to his knees, bowing and thanking God after finishing second overall, as supporters and journalists encircled him. He dedicated his run to Palestinians still in Israeli detention.

“After 32 months in prison, Mohamad Al-Assi is first in his class!” he shouted through tears, raising his hands and looking up to the sky.

__ Imad Isseid contributed from Bethlehem, West Bank and Abdel Kareem Hana from Nuseirat, Gaza Strip.

A Palestinian amputee runner takes part in the 2-kilometer Palestine Marathon along the coastal road near Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, Friday, May 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Palestinian runners take part in the 5-kilometer Palestine Marathon along the coastal road near Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, Friday, May 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Runners participate in the Palestine Marathon in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Friday, May 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)

Runners pass by Israel's separation wall as they compete in the Palestine Marathon in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Friday, May 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)

Palestinian Mohamad Al-Assi, who was released from Israeli detention six months ago, runs past Israel's separation wall as he trains ahead of the Palestine Marathon in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Thursday, May 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Sam Metz)