Pro Picks: Texans will upset the Colts to tighten the race in the AFC South

Suddenly the AFC South is a three-team race.

With the Colts (8-3) losing two of three, the door is open for the Jaguars (7-4) and the Texans (6-5).

Indianapolis will play both division rivals twice over the final six games, starting with a home game Sunday against Houston.

It's the biggest matchup in the NFL's Week 13 schedule outside of the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games.

A stifling defense has helped the Texans get back over .500 after an 0-3 start. Backup QB Davis Mills has played well, going 3-0 for C.J. Stroud, who has been dealing with a concussion. Stroud is expected to return this week, though he was still in concussion protocol on Wednesday.

The Colts needed overtime to beat the Falcons two weeks ago in their only win over the past three games and blew a 20-9 lead in the fourth quarter at Kansas City.

Daniel Jones couldn’t make a play when coach Shane Steichen put the ball in his hands instead of giving it to Jonathan Taylor on three, three-and-outs in the fourth quarter.

The Colts are 4 1/2-point favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook. Pro Picks likes the upset.

The NFL saw three underdogs win on Thanksgiving: The Packers beat the Lions 31-24; the Cowboys defeated the Chiefs 31-28; the Bengals stunned the Ravens 32-14.

UPSET SPECIAL: TEXANS, 19-17

Line: Rams minus 10

Matthew Stafford has thrown 27 touchdowns since his most recent interception in Week 3. A suffocating defense that’s No. 1 in scoring has helped the Rams take over the No. 1 spot in the NFC. The Panthers had a chance to move into first place in the NFC South but Bryce Young and the offense couldn’t do anything against San Francisco despite three picks by the defense in the first half. The Rams are 8-3 ATS, including 4-1 on the road.

BEST BET: RAMS: 31-16

Line: Eagles minus 7

The Bears have won eight of nine, including six games by a margin of five points or fewer. The reigning Super Bowl champions collapsed in Dallas, wasting a 21-0 lead, adding more drama in a season where they’ve been winning despite a mediocre offense. Jalen Hurts is 30-4 overall at home as a favorite. Chicago isn’t getting much respect from oddsmakers.

EAGLES: 27-17

Line: Jaguars minus 6 1/2

The Jaguars needed overtime to beat the struggling Cardinals on the road a week after dominating the Chargers. They can’t afford a letdown against the woeful Titans in the first of two meetings between the division foes. Only wins matter but Tennessee stayed close against Seattle and is 5-6 ATS this season.

JAGUARS: 23-18

Line: 49ers minus 5

Brock Purdy threw three interceptions and the 49ers still held Carolina to only nine points on Monday night. San Francisco is 1-6 ATS after a win this season. Shedeur Sanders showed promise in his first NFL start for the Browns and Myles Garrett is on pace to shatter the single-season sacks record.

49ERS: 20-16

Line: Dolphins minus 6

The rebuilding Saints aren’t doing much right except stopping the opposition’s passing attack. The Dolphins have won two in a row, three of four and are coming off a bye. They’re still playing to save coach Mike McDaniel’s job.

DOLPHINS: 20-16

Line: Falcons minus 2 1/2

Kirk Cousins led the Falcons to victory in New Orleans and Atlanta suddenly has a chance in the NFC South with the Buccaneers losing three in a row. The rebuilding Jets contained Derrick Henry and now face Bijan Robinson. But their defense has one takeaway this season and Tyrod Taylor couldn’t get the offense going.

FALCONS: 22-16

Line: Buccaneers minus 2 1/2

The Cardinals somehow managed to lose a game in overtime in which they had four takeaways and no turnovers. Jacoby Brissett could have success against a poor Buccaneers defense. Tampa Bay needs Baker Mayfield to play through a shoulder injury to have a chance because an injury-riddled offense is going to have to outscore teams to overcome a leaky defense.

BUCCANEERS: 27-20

Line: Seahawks minus 10 1/2

It’s the Sam Darnold Bowl. Darnold thrived under Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell last season but was allowed to leave in free agency to pave the way for J.J. McCarthy, who has struggled and is in concussion protocol. Undrafted rookie Max Brosmer would start if McCarthy can’t play. Darnold has Seattle battling for first place in the NFC West.

SEAHAWKS: 27-13

Line: Bills minus 4

Josh Allen and the Bills are coming off a frustrating loss to Houston after the reigning NFL MVP had a six-TD performance against Tampa Bay. Buffalo added veteran receiver Brandin Cooks to bolster a mediocre group. The Steelers are reeling, having lost four of six to allow the Ravens to catch up. Aaron Rodgers is expected to return for Pittsburgh after sitting out a loss at Chicago because of a broken left wrist.

BILLS: 23-20

Line: Chargers minus 9 1/2

The Raiders would’ve been better off with part-owner Tom Brady in a dual role of quarterback and offensive coordinator than going with Chip Kelly and Geno Smith. Kelly was fired after the latest dismal loss. The Chargers had a week off to reflect on a lopsided loss to the Jaguars. A depleted offensive line has been problematic for Justin Herbert and Los Angeles’ run game. The Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their past seven games vs. AFC West opponents.

CHARGERS: 30-13

Line: Broncos minus 5 1/2

Two teams coming off a bye heading in opposite directions. The Broncos have won eight in a row. The Commanders have lost six straight. Unless a week off slowed Denver’s momentum, the Broncos shouldn’t have any trouble. Jayden Daniels returned to practice but isn’t expected to be cleared to play. Broncos QB Bo Nix is 7-1 overall vs. the NFC.

BRONCOS: 23-16

Line: Patriots minus 7 1/2

The Giants blew another lead in the fourth quarter, fired their defensive coordinator and can’t start the offseason soon enough. A nine-game winning streak has the Patriots leading the AFC. Drake Maye gets to make his case for NFL MVP in front of a national audience on Monday night.

PATRIOTS: 30-20

Last week: Straight up: 12-2. Against spread: 5-6-3.

Overall: Straight up: 130-47-1. Against spread: 89-83-6.

Prime time: Straight up: 25-15-1. Against spread: 17-24.

Best Bet: Straight up: 10-2. Against spread: 7-4-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 9-3. Against spread: 9-3.

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) is tackled by Kansas City Chiefs safety Bryan Cook (6) after picking up a first down during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) celebrates after Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen (17) was sacked in the second half of an NFL football game Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

Houston Texans linebacker Henry To'oTo'o celebrates after sacking Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen in the second half of an NFL football game Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) runs for a first down against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court is taking up one of the term’s most consequential cases, President Donald Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship declaring that children born to parents who are in the United States illegally or temporarily are not American citizens, and he was in the courtroom on Wednesday for some of the arguments.

The justices are hearing Trump’s appeal of a lower-court ruling from New Hampshire that struck down the citizenship restrictions, one of several courts that have blocked them. They have not taken effect anywhere in the country.

Trump is the first sitting president to attend oral arguments at the nation’s highest court. He spent just over an hour inside the courtroom, hearing arguments by the government’s lawyer, Solicitor General D. John Sauer. He left shortly after Sauer wrapped up and the plaintiff was invited to present her case.

The case frames another test of Trump's assertions of executive power that defy long-standing precedent for a court that has largely ruled in the president's favor — but with some notable exceptions that Trump has responded to with starkly personal criticisms of the justices. A definitive ruling is expected by early summer.

The birthright citizenship order, which Trump signed the first day of his second term, is part of his Republican administration’s broad immigration crackdown.

Birthright citizenship is the first Trump immigration-related policy to reach the court for a final ruling. The justices previously struck down global tariffs Trump had imposed under an emergency powers law that had never been used that way.

Trump reacted furiously to the late February tariffs decision, saying he was ashamed of the justices who ruled against him and calling them unpatriotic.

He issued a preemptive broadside against the court on Sunday on his Truth Social platform. “Birthright Citizenship is not about rich people from China, and the rest of the World, who want their children, and hundreds of thousands more, FOR PAY, to ridiculously become citizens of the United States of America. It is about the BABIES OF SLAVES!,” the president wrote. “Dumb Judges and Justices will not a great Country make!”

Trump's order would upend the long-standing view that the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, ratified in 1868, and federal law since 1940 confer citizenship on everyone born on American soil, with narrow exceptions for the children of foreign diplomats and those born to a foreign occupying force.

The 14th Amendment was intended to ensure that Black people, including former slaves, had citizenship, though the Citizenship Clause is written more broadly. “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside,” it reads.

In a series of decisions, lower courts have struck down the executive order as illegal, or likely so, under the Constitution and federal law. The decisions have invoked the high court's 1898 ruling in Wong Kim Ark, which held that the U.S.-born child of Chinese nationals was a citizen.

The Trump administration argues that the common view of citizenship is wrong, asserting that children of noncitizens are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States and therefore are not entitled to citizenship.

The court should use the case to set straight “long-enduring misconceptions about the Constitution’s meaning,” wrote Sauer, the solicitor general.

No court has accepted that argument, and lawyers for pregnant women whose children would be affected by the order said the Supreme Court should not be the first to do so.

“We have the president of the United States trying to radically reinterpret the definition of American citizenship,” said Cecillia Wang, the American Civil Liberties Union legal director who is facing off against Sauer at the Supreme Court.

More than one-quarter of a million babies born in the U.S. each year would be affected by the executive order, according to research by the Migration Policy Institute and Pennsylvania State University’s Population Research Institute.

While Trump has largely focused on illegal immigration in his rhetoric and actions, the birthright restrictions also would apply to people who are legally in the United States, including students and applicants for green cards, or permanent resident status.

Associated Press writer Darlene Superville contributed to this report.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the U.S. Supreme Court at https://apnews.com/hub/us-supreme-court.

Pro and anti-Trump demonstrators rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court, before justices hear oral arguments on whether President Donald Trump can deny citizenship to children born to parents who are in the United States illegally or temporarily, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

President Donald Trump leaves the U.S. Supreme Court, Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

President Donald Trump's motorcade arrives at the U.S. Supreme Court, Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Tom Brenner)

Pro and anti-Trump demonstrators rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court, before justices hear oral arguments on whether President Donald Trump can deny citizenship to children born to parents who are in the United States illegally or temporarily, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

President Donald Trump's motorcade arrives at the U.S. Supreme Court, Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Tom Brenner)

Demonstrators holding opposing views verbally engage ahead of President Donald Trump's arrival at the U.S. Supreme Court, Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Tom Brenner)

President Donald Trump's limo exits the White House en route to the Supreme Court, Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

President Donald Trump's motorcade arrives at the U.S. Supreme Court, Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Tom Brenner)

Pro and anti-Trump demonstrators rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court, before justices hear oral arguments on whether President Donald Trump can deny citizenship to children born to parents who are in the United States illegally or temporarily, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

People arrive to walk inside the U.S. Supreme Court, on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. The Supreme Court justices will hear oral arguments today on whether President Donald Trump can deny citizenship to children born to parents who are in the United States illegally or temporarily. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

People arrive to walk inside the U.S. Supreme Court, on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. The Supreme Court justices will hear oral arguments today on whether President Donald Trump can deny citizenship to children born to parents who are in the United States illegally or temporarily. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

President Donald Trump answers questions from reporters after signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Washington, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick listens. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

The U.S. Supreme Court is seen as the moon rises Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)