U.S. CPI up 2.7 pct in November, below market expectations

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7 percent year on year in November, according to data released Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The figure was lower than the market expectations of 3.1 percent and slightly below the 3 percent increase recorded in September.

According to the BLS, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 2.6 percent year on year in November.

The November inflation report does not include month-on-month changes, as the October 2025 data are missing. The October CPI release was canceled due to the suspension of data collection during the recent U.S. government shutdown.

The lower-than-expected inflation figure has rekindled market hopes that inflationary pressures may be easing enough for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease monetary policy more than anticipated, local media reported Thursday.

Before the data release, markets were pricing in a 73-percent probability that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Nevertheless, economists cautioned against interpreting the report as the start of a downward trend in inflation, given the lack of October data for comparison.

Last week, the Fed lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5 to 3.75 percent after its December policy meeting, saying "uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated".

On Tuesday, the BLS reported that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent in November, the highest level since October 2021, with the number of the unemployed increasing to 7.8 million, up from 7.1 million in the same period of 2024.

The U.S. dollar increased in late trading on Thursday.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, gained 0.06 percent to 98.425 at 3 p.m. (2000 GMT).

In late New York trading, the euro decreased to 1.1725 dollars from 1.1745 dollars in the previous session, and the British pound was up to 1.3386 dollars from 1.3378 U.S. dollars in the previous session.

The U.S. dollar bought 155.52 Japanese yen, lower than 155.63 Japanese yen of the previous session. The U.S. dollar declined to 0.7940 Swiss francs from 0.7953 Swiss francs, and it fell to 1.3781 Canadian dollars from 1.3789 Canadian dollars. The U.S. dollar fell to 9.2846 Swedish kronor from 9.2984 Swedish kronor.