Japan's record defense budget plan harms economy, threatens regional security: expert

Japan's record defense budget plan has shown that its government has deviated from its exclusively defense-oriented policy and turned to dramatically accelerate military buildup, thus posing a threat to the country's economy and regional security.

Japan's draft defense budget was set at a record 9.04 trillion yen (about 58 billion U.S. dollars) for fiscal 2026, local media reported Friday.

The figure exceeds the then record initial budget of 8.7 trillion yen for the current fiscal 2025 starting in April and is in line with Japan's defense buildup plan to allot about 43 trillion yen to defense outlays from fiscal 2023 through 2027.

Meanwhile, an 18.3 trillion yen supplementary budget enacted on Dec 16 for the current fiscal year included 1.7 trillion yen for security and diplomacy, allowing Japan to bring defense-related spending to its target of 2 percent of gross domestic product within fiscal 2025.

These moves indicate that Japan's defense spending has reached the military expenditure standards of NATO countries, and its Self-Defense Forces are accelerating their transformation into an army with extensive combat capabilities.

In an interview with China Central Television (CCTV), Professor Liu Jiangyong at the Department of International Relations, Tsinghua University analyzed the specific uses of Japan's defense spending.

"First, Japan aims to acquire medium-to-long-range missiles capable of striking so-called enemy missile bases and command centers. Specifically, this involves extending and changing the range of existing missile models, such as increasing their reach to over 1,000 kilometers. Japan has already allocated budgets for at least over 1,000 such missiles. Additionally, Japan is jointly developing with the United States hypersonic gliding missiles capable of speeds five times the speed of sound. These projects are already underway, with some of those almost ready for combat. Furthermore, Japan plans to produce deep-sea submarines and space weapons -- an all-around military equipment and unmanned combat capabilities. These are actually the key part of its military buildup, requiring significant investment in research, development, production, and exports," he said.

The expert expressed concern over the resurgence of Japanese militarism, highlighting the potential risks it poses to its Asian neighbors.

"Therefore, from an overall perspective, Japan has in effect abandoned the so-called exclusively defense-oriented policy, adopting instead an offensive strategic posture aimed at exerting military pressure on China. Consequently, I believe this poses a potential threat to China's national security and the peace of the entire East Asian region," said Liu.

Since the new Japanese government came to power, it has significantly accelerated the pace of strengthening the military and expanding its armed forces. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has attempted to revise the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology, further relax restrictions on weapons exports, advance the revision of three national security documents, and hint at the revision of three non-nuclear principles. An official from the Prime Minister's Office have made shocking remarks that "Japan should possess nuclear weapons."

All these moves indicate that Japan is advancing its rearmament at an unprecedented speed, according to Liu.

"Japan is rampantly pursuing military expansion, strengthening its combat-ready military deployments targeting China and disrupting cross-Taiwan Strait reunification. It has, in fact, positioned itself as the 'pacesetter' and 'frontline.' Such an extreme government has already drawn criticism from the Japanese public and some opposition parties. The further it advances down this path, the greater the negative impact it will have on Japan's economy and the livelihoods of its citizens, while also sounding an alarm for the world," said Liu.

Japan's record defense budget plan harms economy, threatens regional security: expert

Farmers across the U.S. Midwest, a major agricultural hub with over 200 million acres of cropland, are facing unprecedented challenges as the cost of essential agricultural inputs, particularly diesel and fertilizer, has surged in recent weeks.

This sharp increase is largely attributed to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which began in late February, and its ripple effects on global markets. The rising expenses are casting a shadow over the upcoming planting season, threatening to erode profitability for many.

At a farm in southern Illinois, preparations for planting season are underway, a process that critically relies on the application of fertilizer. However, the cost of this vital resource has escalated dramatically.

Brian Duncan, a farmer in Illinois, highlighted the global nature of the impact.

"The Strait of Hormuz is very important for transit of fuel and fertilizer, and it's a global market. So even if the shipments that were coming here are not impacted, what we will see is a global rise in price because of that insecurity, and it will impact us here," he said.

With many U.S. farmers locking in fertilizer prices last year, the full impact on farmers is only likely to be felt later in the year, if the conflict continues and fertilizer prices remain high.

Robb Ewoldt, a farmer in the neighboring state of Iowa, echoed these concerns. He noted that while farmers have faced high costs before, the current situation is compounded by depressed commodity prices for crops like soybeans and corn, meaning farmers face the prospect of producing at a loss this year.

"We have higher cost, and that's the biggest thing. We have had our costs be higher in the past, but right now, our commodity prices are a little bit depressed, and so it's making it very challenging to be profitable and make a positive cash flow for the year," said Ewoldt.

As fertilizer prices skyrocket, concerns are growing for many farmers. In the longer term, if input costs including fertilizer remain high, the consequences for farmers could be dire.

"The sentiment is, you know, when I go to meetings, we think, well, there's going to be, some of us aren't going to be here next year because we're not going to be in business," said Ewoldt.

"I'd say it's a time of concern, perhaps a time of survival mode, where we're looking to cut costs, not make any new expenditures, and try to hang on for either a better marketplace dynamic or a significant lowering of our input costs," said Duncan.

As the planting season commences, the inherent optimism of farmers will be put to the test against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

Soaring diesel, fertilizer costs hit US farmers