Democrats see a path to win the Senate. It's narrow and has little room for error

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Democratic leaders believe they have a path to winning the majority in November, though it's one with very little wiggle room.

The party got a new burst of confidence when former Rep. Mary Peltola announced Monday she'll run for the Senate in Alaska. Her bid gives Democrats a critical fourth candidate with statewide recognition in states where Republican senators are seeking reelection this year. Nationally, Democrats must net four seats to edge Republicans out of the majority.

That possibility looked all but impossible at the start of last year. And while the outlook has somewhat improved as 2026 begins, Democrats still almost certainly must sweep those four seats. First they must settle some contentious primaries, the mark of a party still struggling with its way forward after Republicans took full control of Washington in 2024. Importantly, they must also beat back challenges to incumbents in some of the most competitive states on the map.

And though some of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's top Democratic Senate recruits were lauded for their statewide success in pivotal states, some are nearly 70 or older, hardly the key to a lasting Democratic transformation.

Republicans doubt the chances Democrats can pull off such a task, considering most of the 2026 contests are in states that Donald Trump easily won in 2024.

Still, independent voters have drifted in Democrats' direction over the past year, according to a new Gallup poll, a slight breeze at Democrats' back they didn't expect a year ago when there was little path at all.

“I say it’s a much wider path than the skeptics think, and a much wider path than it was three months ago and certainly a year ago,” Schumer told The Associated Press Tuesday.

Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while the Democratic caucus has 47 members, including two independents.

Schumer argues that Peltola, elected twice statewide to Alaska's at-large House seat, puts the typically Republican-leaning state in play as a potential pickup for Democrats.

It's a development similar to other states where Schumer believes Democrats have recruited strong candidates: former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina and two-term Gov. Janet Mills in Maine.

But they hardly represent a quartet of guarantees. Brown, a longtime pro-labor progressive in increasingly GOP-leaning Ohio, and Peltola, who was elected during a special election in 2022, both lost reelection in 2024. Mills, finishing her second term as governor, faces a competitive primary challenge from progressive veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner.

None of the four had runaway popularity with voters in their states in 2024. Right around half of voters had somewhat or very favorable views of all of them, with Cooper slightly higher and Brown slightly lower, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of the electorate.

Age remains another issue. After President Joe Biden, in his early 80s, withdrew from the 2024 race amid concerns he was too old to serve, Democratic Senate leadership hasn't changed course. Schumer, 75, has recruited candidates who are older, with several top recruits – including Mills and Brown – well into their 70s.

“Voters sent a very clear message in 2024 that they’re sick of the gerontocracy. They’re sick of Democrats putting up old candidates and that they want some new blood,” said Lis Smith, a national Democratic strategist. “And some of the recruits, like in Maine, seem to completely ignore the message that voters sent in 2024.”

Schumer said winning back the Senate is paramount over all else.

“It's not young versus old. It's not left versus center. It's who can best win in the states,” he said. “So, these are all really good candidates, and I don't think you look at them through one narrow prism. You look at who can win.”

Before Democrats can test their general-election appeal, they must navigate some primaries that highlight lingering divisions within the party.

Platner, who has been endorsed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, has demonstrated formidable fundraising for his Maine contest, despite controversies surrounding past social media posts and a tattoo linked to Nazi imagery. Some Democrats worry his insurgent appeal could be a liability in November if he is the nominee.

In Michigan, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters' retirement has opened a seat in a state Trump carried narrowly. Republicans have unified behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, while Democrats face a crowded August primary after failing to recruit Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Crowded or contentious primaries are also playing out in Minnesota, Texas and Iowa, forcing Democrats to devote resources even in states not central to their path to a majority.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen is part of an informal group of Democratic senators known as Fight Club that has been openly critical of party leadership’s approach to the midterms. Van Hollen said the group has objected to what it sees as the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm — controlled by Schumer — “wading into certain Democratic primaries.”

“So, yes, we’re taking a look at all of them,” Van Hollen said of endorsing more progressive candidates.

Betsy Ankney, political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2020, acknowledged Democrats’ desire to make the case for competitiveness but characterized Trump’s presidential victories in Alaska and Ohio in 2024 — by 13 and 11 percentage point margins, respectively — as enormous hurdles.

She said Republicans are “rightly focused, on real tangible targets in Georgia, in Michigan," calling them “very real pickup opportunities.”

Democrats’ shot at the majority almost certainly depends on Sen. Jon Ossoff winning reelection in Georgia, where Trump won in 2024 by 2.2 percentage points, and holding Michigan, where Peters' retirement creates an open seat in a state Trump carried by 1.4 percentage points.

"It’s not just about where the Democrats can play. It’s about where we can play, too,” Ankney said.

Despite the challenges, Democrats see reasons for optimism in the broader political climate.

A new Gallup survey found 47% of U.S. adults now identify with or lean toward the Democrats, while 42% are Republicans or lean Republican. That gives Democrats the advantage in party affiliation for the first time since Trump’s first term.

But the data strongly suggests that independents are moving toward Democrats because of their souring attitude toward Trump, rather than greater goodwill toward Democrats. The Democratic Party’s favorability is still low, and Gallup’s analysis found that, as more Americans identify as independents, they tend to gravitate toward the party that is out of political power — whether it’s the Democrats or the Republicans.

Still, that appears to be a dynamic in Democrats' favor, as economic unease creeps into the election year with little time before the feelings lock into voters' political thinking, veteran Republican pollster Ed Goeas said.

“That creates an environment that will affect these Senate races,” Goeas said, predicting House Republicans could lose their majority. He said Republicans are assuming the economy and the political environment are going to be better.

“I think they are going to end up getting frustrated going into the summer because, first of all, the economy is not on all levels improving. It’s going to be a target-rich environment for Democrats," he said.

“It’s going to be close.”

Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa. Associated Press writer Amelia Thomson DeVeaux in Washington contributed to this report.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks during the Senate Democrat policy luncheon news conference at the Capitol, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.)

FILE - Rep.-elect Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, is interviewed on Capitol Hill in Washington, Sept. 12, 2022. (AP Photo/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades, File)

Iran's top judge hinted at fast trials and executions for those who were detained in nationwide protests against the country's theocracy, even as activists said Wednesday that the death toll rose to levels unseen in decades, with at least 2,571 people killed so far.

Iran’s judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, made the comments about trials and executions in a video Tuesday, despite a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump that he would “take very strong action” if executions take place.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said the number of dead climbed to at least 2,571 early Wednesday. The figure dwarfs the death toll from any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades and recalls the chaos surrounding the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

After Trump was informed of the number of deaths, he warned Iran's leaders that he was terminating any negotiations and would “act accordingly.”

Details of the crackdown began emerging Tuesday as Iranians made phone calls abroad for the first time in days after authorities severed communications countrywide when the protests broke out.

Here is the latest:

Tens of thousands of mourners thronged the streets near Tehran University for a mass funeral of security forces and civilians on Wednesday.

After Iranian state television reported that 300 coffins would be on display at Tehran University, Associated Press reporters there saw around 100. It wasn’t clear why there was a discrepancy.

Many held Iranian flags and identical photos of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and their relatives. The caskets, covered in Iranian flags, were stacked at least three high in the backs of trucks and covered with red and white roses and framed photographs of people who were killed. The crowd chanted and beat their chests in response to an emcee speaking from a stage.

One man in the crowd held up a photo of U.S. President Donald Trump during the Pennsylvania assassination attempt, emblazoned with: “The arrow doesn’t always miss!”

The presenter, his voice booming across the crowd, blamed the U.S. for the unrest. “All of our problems are because of America, today’s economic problems are because of American sanctions. Death to America!” he yelled, prompting the same chant from the tens of thousands of people, dressed mostly in black.

India's Embassy in Tehran urged Wednesday all Indian nationals to leave Iran, citing what it called an “evolving situation” in the Islamic Republic.

The statement, posted on X, also advised Indian citizens to remain highly vigilant and avoid areas where protests are taking place.

German police said Wednesday the two climbed over a fence into embassy grounds and tore down an Iranian flag. Both wanted to hoist two pre-Islamic Republic flags but failed, German news agency dpa reported.

They left the grounds when guards used pepper spray and were detained on the sidewalk outside.

The incident happened late Tuesday.

Major Middle East governments were discouraging the Trump administration from waging a war with Iran, fearing “unprecedented consequences” in the volatile region, an Arab Gulf diplomat said Wednesday.

The Cairo-based diplomat, who was given anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to the media, said major governments in the region, including Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, have been “in constant contact” with the U.S. administration over a potential American strike on Iran that could explode into a “full-blown war.”

Such a war will “certainly” have dire repercussions “not only on the Middle East but also on the global economy," he said.

Iranian state television said Wednesday’s mass funeral in Tehran would include 300 bodies of security force members and civilians. The funeral is expected to take place at Tehran University under heavy security.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said the crackdown killed at least 2,571 people. It said 2,403 of the dead were protesters and 147 were government-affiliated. Twelve children were killed, along with nine civilians it said were not taking part in protests. More than 18,100 people have been detained, the group said.

Gauging the demonstrations and the death toll from abroad has grown more difficult. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the toll, given the communications being disrupted in the country.

Melanie Lidman contributed from Jerusalem.

Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on countries that trade with Iran could impact India, an expert said, as New Delhi already faces existing 50% U.S. trade levies due to its purchases of Russian oil.

Abhijit Mukhopadhyay, a senior economist at the Chintan Research Foundation in New Delhi, said the bigger risk is not India-Iran trade, but India’s access to the U.S. market, as its exports to Iran are modest.

India mainly exports rice, tea, sugar, pharmaceuticals and electrical machinery to Iran, while importing dry fruits and chemical products. Textiles and garments, gems and jewelry and engineering goods are likely to be the most vulnerable sectors, he said.

Trump’s latest move also could affect India’s investments in Iran, including the strategically important Chabahar port, which gives India a trade route to Afghanistan, Central Asia and Europe while bypassing Pakistan, Mukhopadhyay said.

Iran’s judiciary chief signals fast trials and executions for those detained in nationwide protests.

Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei made the comment in a video shared by Iranian state television on Wednesday.

He emphasized the need for swift action, saying delays would lessen the impact.

His remarks challenge Trump, who warned Iran about executions in an interview aired Tuesday.

Trump stated the U.S. would take strong action if Iran proceeded with executions. The situation highlights escalating tensions between the two countries over the handling of the protests.

Dozens of Pakistani students studying in Iran have returned home through a remote southwestern border crossing, a Pakistani immigration official said Wednesday.

Federal Investigation Agency spokesperson in Quetta city, Samina Raisani, said about 60 students crossed into Pakistan on Tuesday through Gabd border in Balochistan province with valid travel documents.

More students were expected to return through the same crossing later Wednesday, she said.

Mudassir Tipu, Pakistan’s ambassador to Iran, said Tuesday that Iranian universities had rescheduled exams and permitted international students to leave the country.

The satellite internet provider Starlink now offers free service to people in Iran who have access to the company's receivers, activists said Wednesday.

Mehdi Yahyanejad, a Los Angeles-based activist who helped get the units into Iran, told The Associated Press that the free service had started. Other activists also confirmed in messages online that the service was free.

Starlink has been the only way for Iranians to communicate with the outside world since authorities shut down the internet Thursday night as nationwide protests swelled and they began a bloody crackdown against demonstrators.

Starlink did not immediately acknowledge the decision.

This frame grab from videos taken between Jan. 9 and Jan. 11, 2026, and circulating on social media purportedly shows images from a morgue with dozens of bodies and mourners after crackdown on the outskirts of Iran's capital, in Kahrizak, Tehran Province. (UGC via AP)