Inter Milan has 70% chance of Serie A title after becoming winter champion

MILAN (AP) — Inter Milan has a 70% chance of winning Serie A according to history.

In 63 of the 93 previous Serie A seasons, the team which topped the table at the midway point went on to claim the scudetto.

Inter strong-armed its way to the title of winter champion on Wednesday when Pio Esposito flexed his muscles.

“This semi title doesn’t mean anything,” Inter coach Cristian Chivu said. “What matters is getting to the end, getting to May, getting there knowing that we are competitive, staying fixed to the top of the table … because it will be a tight league campaign and a battle until the very end.”

It has been tight this season but Inter created a gap at the top of the table on Wednesday.

The 1-0 win over Lecce combined with Napoli’s goalless draw against Parma gave the Nerazzurri a six-point advantage over AC Milan and defending champion Napoli.

AC Milan, second on goal difference, could cut the gap back to three points if it wins at Como on Thursday.

Two years ago, Inter was on top at the midway point and went on to win Serie A. However, it was also the last team to be named winter champion and lose out on the trophy — in 2022, when the crown went to AC Milan.

Inter visits Udinese on Saturday, shortly after Napoli hosts Sassuolo. Milan welcomes Lecce on Sunday.

Napoli has reeled off three straight draws going into its match with struggling Sassuolo.

Antonio Conte’s team fought back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 against relegation-threatened Hellas Verona, then drew by the same scoreline in a thrilling title showdown against Inter before Wednesday’s frustration.

Sassuolo has just one win from its past nine matches and that came over a month ago.

Juventus and Roma were just a point behind Napoli and any further slip up could see them leapfrog the defending champion. Juventus visits Cagliari on Saturday, the day before Roma plays at Torino.

Bologna has slid down the table following a miserable run of results and hasn’t won since November. Coach Vincenzo Italiano will be up against his former team in the visit of relegation-threatened Fiorentina.

Pio Esposito has come from Serie B to scoring in every competition for Inter this season, as well as netting three for Italy. The 20-year-old ticked another box when he finally scored at San Siro for the first time in Serie A.

“I’ve been waiting for this goal for a long time and finally it’s here,” he said. “It was amazing to score at home in front of these fans. I’ve dreamed of it since I was a kid wearing this shirt.”

Esposito is already being touted as Italy’s next great center forward and celebrated the goal by showing his muscles before a warm embrace with Chivu.

“We have a bond that goes beyond words but there’s lots of respect and affection,” Esposito said. “We grew together, me as a player and him as a coach.”

Napoli’s frustrating evening on the same night had much to do with Parma goalkeeper Filippo Rinaldi on his Serie A debut. He was named player of the match.

Conte will again be forced to watch from the stands as the Napoli coach serves the second of a two-match suspension after he was sent off at San Siro.

Napoli will hope David Neres will make a proper return. The Brazilian came on as a second-half substitute against Parma after missing the past couple of matches with an ankle sprain but he was clearly not fully fit and was taken off shortly before fulltime.

Key Inter midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu has strained his left calf and is expected to be sidelined for three weeks.

There will be no Italy training camp in February ahead of a crucial World Cup playoff in March.

Italy coach Gennaro Gattuso hoped the Italian soccer federation and Lega Serie A could come to an agreement to amend the fixture list to give the Azzurri a few days to spend together.

But it was confirmed this week that would not be the case, as a congested fixture list and television demands made it impossible to find a window.

Italy last played on Nov. 16 and will meet up on the night of March 22, just four days before the World Cup semifinal playoff against Northern Ireland.

AP soccer: https://apnews.com/hub/soccer

AC Milan's head coach Massimiliano Allegri reacts during the Serie A soccer match between AC Milan and Genoa, in Milan, Italy, Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)

Napoli's Scott McTominay, center, and Parma's Mariano Troilo, left, in action during the Serie A soccer match between Napoli and Parma, in Naples, Italy, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026. (Alessandro Garofalo/LaPresse via AP)

Napoli's head coach Antonio Conte watches the Serie A soccer match between Inter Milan and Napoli in Milan, Italy, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

Inter Milan's head coach Cristian Chivu reacts at the end of the Serie A soccer match between Inter Milan and Lecce in Milan, Italy, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

Inter Milan's Francesco Pio Esposito celebrates after scoring his side's opening goal during the Serie A soccer match between Inter Milan and Lecce in Milan, Italy, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

HELSINGBORG, Sweden (AP) — NATO allies and defense officials expressed bewilderment Friday at U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would send 5,000 U.S. troops to Poland just weeks after ordering the same number of forces pulled out of Europe.

The apparent change of mind came after weeks of statements from Trump and his administration about reducing — not increasing — the U.S. military footprint in Europe. Trump's initial order set off a flurry of action among military commanders and left allies already doubtful about America's commitment to Europe's security to ponder what forces they might have to backfill on NATO's eastern flank with Russia and Ukraine.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration said it was reducing levels in Europe by about 5,000 troops, and U.S. officials confirmed about 4,000 service members were no longer rotating into Poland from Germany. The dispatch to Germany of U.S. personnel trained to fire long-range missiles was also halted.

But in a post on Truth Social on Thursday, Trump said he would now send "an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland,” citing his strong ties with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, whom Trump endorsed in elections last year.

“It is confusing indeed, and not always easy to navigate,” Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard told reporters Friday at a meeting she was hosting of her NATO counterparts, including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Ministers from the Netherlands and Norway were sanguine about Trump’s latest move, as was Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže, who said allies knew the U.S. troop “posture was being reconsidered, and now there is no change of posture. For now.”

U.S. defense officials also expressed confusion. “We just spent the better part of two weeks reacting to the first announcement. We don’t know what this means either,” said one of two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.

But Rubio said Washington’s allies understand that changes in the U.S. troop presence in Europe will come as the Trump administration reevaluates its force needs. “I think there’s a broad recognition that there are going to be eventually less U.S. troops in Europe than there has historically been for a variety of reasons,” he said.

The latest surprise came despite a U.S. pledge to coordinate troop deployments, including one from NATO’s top military officer, U.S. Lt. Gen. Alex Grynkewich, on Wednesday.

Trump's initial announcement that he would withdraw troops came as he fumed over remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said that the U.S. was being “humiliated” by the Iranian leadership and criticized what he called a lack of strategy in that war.

Trump told reporters that the U.S. would be cutting even more than 5,000 and also announced new tariffs on European cars. Germany is the continent’s biggest auto producer.

Rubio insisted that Trump’s decision “is not a punitive thing. It’s just something that’s ongoing.”

About 80,000 U.S. troops are stationed in Europe. The Pentagon is required to keep at least 76,000 troops and major equipment on the continent unless NATO allies are consulted and there is a determination that such a withdrawal is in U.S. interests.

The withdrawal of 5,000 troops might drop numbers below that limit.

But Trump's latest post suggests that troop numbers in Europe would not change. Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski welcomed the decision to send more forces to his country, saying it ensures that “the presence of American troops in Poland will be maintained more or less at previous levels.”

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also welcomed the move. On Thursday, before Trump took to Truth Social again, Rutte had underlined that it was important for Europe to take care of its own security. “We have a process in place. This is normal business,” he told reporters.

At NATO headquarters in Brussels, meanwhile, U.S. officials briefed the allies on the Pentagon's aims for its commitments to the NATO Force Model, which involves contingency planning for Europe’s defense in the event of serious security concerns. It was widely expected that a further reduction of U.S. forces would be coming.

Asked whether any cuts were announced, Rutte said: “I’m afraid it’s much more complicated than that.” He said the procedure “is highly classified” and declined to give details.

Rubio played down concerns about a shift in U.S. force levels in Europe, saying: "Every country has to constantly reevaluate what their needs are, what their commitments are around the world, and how to properly structure that.”

Cook reported from Brussels. Associated Press writer Emma Burrows in London contributed.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks with journalists during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Helsingborg, Sweden, Friday, May 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Pool)

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio, front second left, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, front left, speak with each other during a group photo at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Helsingborg, Sweden, Friday, May 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Pool)

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte look at each other as they deliver a statement during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Helsingborg, Sweden, Friday, May 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Pool)

Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže speaks at the doorstep of the NATO foreign ministers' meeting at Sea U in Helsingborg, Sweden, Friday, May 22, 2026. (Johan Nilsson/TT News Agency via AP)

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte deliver a statement during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Helsingborg, Sweden, Friday, May 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Pool)

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte speaks to media at the NATO Foreign Ministers' meeting in Helsingborg, Sweden, Friday, May 22, 2026. (Johan Nilsson/TT News Agency via AP)

Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrives with his wife Jeanette at Malmo Airport, Friday, May 22, 2026, in Malmo-Sturup, Sweden, ahead of a NATO foreign ministers meeting. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Pool)

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, second from left, shakes hands with Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson, as he is greeted by King Carl Gustaf of Sweden, Queen Silvia of Sweden and Minister for Foreign Affairs of Sweden Maria Malmer Stenergard, right, before a dinner at Sofiero Castle in Helsingborg, Sweden, Thursday May 21 2026. (Johan Nilsson/TT News Agency via AP)

Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard speaks to media at the NATO Foreign Ministers' meeting in Helsingborg, Sweden, Friday, May 22, 2026. (Johan Nilsson/TT News Agency via AP)