Middle East tensions trigger largest oil supply disruption in history: IEA

The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have triggered the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, according to a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday.

With shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz plummeting from approximately 20 million barrels per day before the conflict to near standstill now, coupled with limited rerouting capacity and rising inventories, oil production in Gulf nations has decreased by at least 10 million barrels per day. If shipping cannot resume swiftly, supply losses may expand further, said the report.

The IEA projects global oil supply will decline by approximately 8 million barrels per day in March. Although some of the Middle East's production cuts have been offset by increased output from non-OPEC+ members, the market remains subject to significant uncertainty.

The report said that the Middle East situation has also severely impacted the petroleum products market.

Over three million barrels per day of refining capacity has been shut down due to the attacks and export disruptions, according to the report.

On Wednesday, the IEA issued a statement, announcing that its 32 members had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves to address the global oil supply strain caused by the tensions in the Middle East.

IEA members hold emergency stockpiles of over 1.2 billion barrels, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.

The release represents the largest-scale deployment of oil reserves in history. Market analysts remain cautiously optimistic about its impact, with attention still focused on the progress of military operations by the United States, Israel and Iran, and the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz.

As the market has already priced in the information regarding the release of strategic oil reserves by the IEA members, investors continue to focus on shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, driving international oil prices higher amid volatility.

Following the opening of the next trading session on Wednesday evening U.S. Eastern Time, May-delivery Brent crude futures in London briefly climbed back above 100 U.S. dollars per barrel during intraday trading.

At the close of trading on Wednesday, April-delivery light crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.80 U.S. dollars to settle at 87.25 U.S. dollars per barrel, a gain of 4.55 percent. May-delivery London Brent crude futures climbed 4.18 U.S. dollars to settle at 91.98 U.S. dollars per barrel, a 4.76-percent increase.

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at UK-based AJ Bell, an investment platform, said that while the release may temporarily ease market concerns, fully dispelling doubts requires either a complete end to hostilities or at least a clear path toward de-escalation of the tensions.

UK consultancy Wood Mackenzie analyzed that the current sharp decline in Gulf oil exports means that reserve releases and alternative sources cannot fully bridge the existing supply gap.

Simon Flowers, chairman and chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie, anticipates that international oil prices will continue to rise as the conflict drags on.

Sasha Foss, energy analyst at UK-based Marex, a global financial services platform, said that releasing oil reserves does buy time for the market, but the key factors remain the duration of the conflict and the status of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States and Israel launched joint military strikes against Iran on Feb. 28. As the U.S.-Israeli-Iran conflict is dragging on, U.S. and Israeli officials have indicated that more strikes on Iran are planned, while Iran has vowed to continue retaliatory attacks, despite international pushes for de-escalation of the situation.

Middle East tensions trigger largest oil supply disruption in history: IEA

China will strive to further reduce the number of heavy pollution days and improve water quality in rural areas during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu said on Thursday.

While meeting the press following the closing meeting of the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC), Huang outlined the main tasks of pollution control during the 2026-2030 period.

Although the national average proportion of heavy pollution days has dropped to less than one percent last year, said Huang, during autumn and winter seasons, such weather events still occasionally occur in certain regions, including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surround areas, as well as urban clusters in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.

Therefore, reducing the number of heavy pollution days will continue to be a major task for relevant authorities, he said.

"An important goal of pollution prevention and control during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is to continue reducing the number of heavy pollution days. We are quite confident in achieving this. We will adhere to the approaches of systematic and source-based management, addressing both symptoms and root causes, with a focus on the latter. In particular, we will seize the favorable opportunities brought by advancing the goal of peaking carbon emissions during the 15th Five-Year Plan period and the promulgation of the Ecological and Environmental Code today to promote green and low-carbon development of our industrial, energy, and transportation structures, as well as the development of new quality productive forces. Our fundamental solution is to reduce pollutant emissions at the source," he said.

Water quality improvement is another major task, according to Huang.

Over the years, China has seen significant progress in managing the water quality in major rivers and lakes, but in rural areas and urban-rural fringe areas, pollution problems, like black and odorous waters, remain quite prominent in small and micro water bodies, he said, adding that these pollution sources near people's homes may seem minor, they are actually directly related to the well-being of the people.

"This year, we will introduce relevant documents to deepen water pollution control, shifting our focus and efforts further towards rural areas, urban-rural fringe areas, and counties. At the same time, we'll set up over 200 national-level monitoring sites and a number of monitoring sites at the provincial level, in order to help local authorities to better manage small and micro water bodies," said Huang.

China will strive to further improve air, water quality in following five years: minister