Analysis: Two weeks into war with Iran, Trump has been knocked back on his political heels

ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE (AP) — In the two weeks since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, President Donald Trump increasingly has been knocked on his political heels.

He's grown more agitated with news coverage and has failed to find a way to explain why he started the war — or how he will end it — that resonates with a public concerned by American deaths in the conflict, surging oil prices and dropping financial markets. Even some of his supporters are questioning his plan and his overall poll numbers are declining.

Meanwhile, Moscow is getting a boost from the war's early days after Trump eased sanctions on some Russian oil shipments. That, combined with rising oil prices, undercut the yearslong push to crimp President Vladimir Putin's ability to wage war in Ukraine.

Then there are Democrats, who were left reeling after Trump won the 2024 election. With control of Congress at stake in November's midterms, the party has come together to oppose Trump's Iran policy and point to the economic turmoil as proof that Republicans haven't kept their promises to bring down everyday costs.

“I think Democrats are well-positioned for this November and the midterms,” said Kelly Dietrich, CEO of the National Democratic Training Committee, which trains party backers to run for office and staff campaigns.

Dietrich said the past two weeks show the Trump administration has failed at long-term planning. “They’re flying by the seat of their pants, and the rest of us are paying the price,” he said.

Trump let some of his frustrations show on Air Force One as he flew back from a weekend at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, lashing out at allies and other countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil for not doing more to counter Iran and specifically name-checking British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who he said initially declined to put British aircraft carriers “into harm’s way.”

“Whether we get support or not," Trump said, “I can say this, and I said to them: We will remember.”

The president spent much of his weekend at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida. He also attended a closed-door fundraiser for his MAGA Inc. super PAC at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday night.

Last weekend, Trump played golf at another of his South Florida properties a day after witnessing the dignified transfer for six U.S. soldiers killed in the Iran war. A political action committee used a photo of the solemn event in a fundraising email, but Trump brushed off a question about whether it was appropriate, saying “there's nobody that's better to the military than me.”

Trump and his White House have increasingly complained about media coverage of the conflict. On Saturday, he cheered on his broadcast regulator for threatening to pull broadcast licenses unless they “correct course.”

He angrily told reporters flying with him on Air Force One that coverage of the war had been influenced by Iranian propaganda, which exaggerated the military and political strength of Iran's leaders and their support among the country's people.

The president — who kept allies other than Israel in the dark about his war plans for Iran — this weekend began suggesting the U.S. would need to lean on the international community to help oil tankers move through the Strait of Hormuz, where transportation has been severely disrupted, throwing global energy markets into a tailspin.

Iran has said it plans to keep up attacks on energy infrastructure and use its effective closure of the strait as leverage against the United States and Israel. A fifth of the world’s traded oil flows through the waterway.

Trump said the U.S. was talking to “about seven” countries about providing military support to help reopen the strait. But he wouldn't say which ones and gave no indication of when such a coalition might be formed.

“It's something that we don't need and these countries do need,” the president said, adding “I think it's a good thing for other countries to come in.”

Singling out allies in Europe, Trump also said, “We’re always there for NATO” and “It’d be interesting to see what country wouldn’t help us with a very small endeavor.”

“Really I'm demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory,” Trump said.

But other countries have reacted to that call only cautiously so far.

South Korea plans to “closely coordinate and carefully review” Trump's comments, while Japan is closely watching developments. Britain’s defense ministry said it was "discussing with our allies and partners a range of options to ensure the security of shipping in the region.”

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said keeping the strait “safe and stable serves the common interests of the international community” and that "as a sincere friend and strategic partner of Middle Eastern countries, China will continue to strengthen communication with relevant parties.” Trump — who is slated to visit Beijing later this month — declined to say whether China would join the effort.

Trump had pledged at the beginning of the war that U.S. naval ships would escort tankers through the waterway. But that hasn’t happened yet.

In the meantime, questions about the strait continue to undermine Trump's recent pronouncement during a Kentucky rally that, “We’ve won.”

“You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won,” he said. “We won the, in the first hour, it was over.”

The U.S. Treasury Department announced this past week a 30-day waiver on Russian sanctions, aiming to free up Russian oil cargoes stranded at sea to help ease supply shortages caused by the Iran war.

That's despite analysts saying that spiraling oil prices due to Persian Gulf production blockages are benefiting the Russian economy. Moscow relies heavily on oil revenue to finance its war on Ukraine, and sanctions were a growing handicap.

Some of Washington's key allies have decried the move as empowering Putin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called easing sanctions “not the right decision” and said it “certainly does not help peace” because it leads to a “strengthening of Russia’s position.”

With midterm races now starting to heat up, Trump was asked about the potential political impact of voters seeing gas prices jump.

“Politically, sure, everybody has concern — I have to do what's right," Trump said Sunday night. "I can't say that ‘Gee, I don’t want to have any impact on oil prices for three or four weeks, or two months, and we're going to let Iran have a nuclear weapon.'"

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said of higher energy prices on NBC’s “Meet the Press" that “Americans are feeling it right now" and would "for a few more weeks.”

Iran also has even divided Trump’s “Make America Great Again” base, between those who support the action and others who say that Trump expressly campaigned on ending wars.

The political turbulence has some Democrats predicting their party could see midterm gains rivaling 2018’s “blue wave” election during Trump’s first term.

“Democrats just have to keep reminding people that he made a promise to bring prices down, and they’re still going up,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said of Trump. “And now they’re going to go up even more because prices in gasoline can increase prices of everything else, including at the grocery store.”

President Donald Trump gesture to the media as he walks on the South Lawn upon his arrival to the White House, Sunday, March 15, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One, Sunday, March 15, 2026, en route from West Palm Beach, Fla. to Joint Base Andrews, Md. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

President Donald Trump's limousine arrives at the Trump International Golf Club West Palm Beach in West Palm Beach, Fla., Sunday, March 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

FILE - A person fuels up a vehicle at a gas station, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura, File)

An Army carry team moves a flag-draped transfer case with the remains of Sgt. Declan Coady, 20, of West Des Moines, Iowa, who was killed in a drone strike at a command center in Kuwait after the U.S. and Israel launched its military campaign against Iran, past President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump during a casualty return, Saturday, March 7, 2026, at Dover Air Force Base, Del. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before he boards Air Force One, Friday, March 13, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Md., for a trip to Florida. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to cast doubt on the effectiveness of the two-week ceasefire over Iran's continued chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, while Kuwait accused Iran and its proxies of launching drone attacks despite the ceasefire.

Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard denied launching attacks Thursday night on Persian Gulf states.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered a potential boost to ceasefire efforts in the region when he said he had approved direct talks with Lebanon. The Lebanese government has not responded as of Friday morning.

The announcement came after Israel pounded Beirut Wednesday, killing more than 300 people. The negotiations are expected next week in Washington, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Questions remained over what will happen to Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium at the heart of tensions, how and when normal traffic will resume through the Strait of Hormuz, and what happens to Iran’s ability to launch future missile attacks and support armed proxies in the region.

Talks between the United States and Iran on a resolution to the conflict are expected to start Saturday in Islamabad, with the White House saying Vice President JD Vance would lead the U.S. delegation.

Here is the latest:

Boarding Air Force Two on his way to Pakistan, the vice president said, “We’re looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s gonna be positive. We’ll, of course, see.”

He cited Trump in saying, “If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand.”

But Vance also added, “If they’re gonna try and play us, then they’re gonna find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.”

Vance also said that Trump “gave us some pretty clear guidelines” on how talks should go, but didn’t elaborate.

The vice president did not take questions from reporters traveling with him.

In the streets of downtown Jerusalem, some Israelis said they believe peace with Lebanon is not possible before a decisive victory against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group.

“I think we should finish with them. After we finished with Hezbollah, we can try and make peace with Lebanon,” said Yaniv Matsree.

A little over a month of hiding in shelters has inconvenienced the lives of many Israelis, they said, but has done little to change their views of the war with Hezbollah that has killed more than 1,850 people in Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.

For some Israelis, their country should press on to evade future threats from the militant group.

“The people of Israel want peace and seek peace, but those who want war will get war, and this war is very justified,” said Benhamo Momen, who fled from northern Israel, where the impact of the war is most severe. “Hezbollah will not disarm on their own.”

The largest monthly jump in gas prices in six decades caused a sharp spike in inflation in March, creating major challenges for the inflation-fighters at the Federal Reserve and heightening the political challenges of rising costs for the White House.

Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Friday, up sharply from just 2.4% in February. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.9% in March from February, the largest such increase in nearly four years.

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 2.6% in March from a year earlier, up from 2.5% in February. But last month, core prices rose a modest 0.2%, suggesting the gas price shock hasn’t yet spread to many other categories.

The gas price shock stemming from the Iran war has shifted inflation’s trajectory from a slow, gradual decline to a sharp increase, further away from the Fed’s 2% target. As a result, the central bank will almost certainly postpone any cut in interest rates for months.

Gas prices are also a highly visible cost that has outsize impacts on consumer confidence and political sentiment.

Vice President JD Vance is warning Tehran not to “play” the U.S. as he departs for Islamabad for negotiations aimed at ending the war with Iran.

President Donald Trump has tasked the member of his inner circle who has seemed to be the most reluctant defender of the conflict with Iran to now find a resolution to the war that began six weeks ago and stave off the U.S. president’s astonishing threat to wipe out its “whole civilization.”

Vance, who has long been skeptical of foreign military interventions and outspoken about the prospect of sending troops into open-ended conflicts, sets off Friday to lead mediated talks with Iran in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad.

It comes as a tenuous, temporary ceasefire appears to be on the precipice of collapsing. The chasm between Iran’s public demands and those from the U.S. and its partner Israel seems irreconcilable.

And in the U.S., where Vance might ask voters in two years to make him the next president, there is growing political and economic pressure to wrap it up.

In the first official statement from the militant group since Israel announced it would enter into direct negotiations with Lebanon, Hezbollah chief Naim Kassem said, “We call on (Lebanese) officials to stop offering free concessions,” but did not take a clear stance on the prospect of talks.

Kassem praised the performance of Hezbollah fighters battling Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and said Israel had been unable to make significant advances.

“We will not accept a return to the previous situation,” Kassem said, an apparent reference to the 15 months before the outbreak of the latest Israel-Hezbollah war, when a ceasefire was nominally in place but the Israeli military continued to carry out near-daily strikes in Lebanon that it said aimed to stop Hezbollah from regrouping.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer told broadcaster ITV in an interview recorded Thursday that he’s “fed up with the fact that families across the country see their bills go up and down on energy, businesses’ bills go up and down on energy because of the actions of Putin or Trump across the world.”

Starmer’s point was that Britain needs energy independence. But mentioning the Russian and U.S. presidents in the same breath is a departure for the prime minister, who usually avoids direct criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Iran war has soured relations between the two leaders, with Trump lashing out over Starmer’s reluctance to join the conflict.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer says reopening the Strait of Hormuz is vital to strengthening a “fragile” ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Speaking Friday as he left Qatar after a three-day visit to the Gulf, Starmer said leaders in the region were adamant that “there can’t be tolling or restrictions” on commercial shipping through the waterway, which has effectively been shut by Iran.

Starmer said he told U.S. President Donald Trump in a call on Thursday that ending the conflict “has to involve” Iran’s Gulf neighbors, who “have very strong views on the Strait of Hormuz.” Britain is involved with other countries in military planning to ensure security in the strait, if the ceasefire turns into a longer peace.

The World Food Program said that 874,000 people in Lebanon were already facing “acute food insecurity” before the latest escalation. Despite the risks, the WFP is continuing to send humanitarian convoys to southern Lebanon to villages on the border with Israel, which have been subject to heavy bombing, the agency said in a statement.

It says it has provided emergency food and assistance to over 440,000 people since March 2.

Some Beirut residents, desperate for any sign of the war ending, welcomed the prospect of talks between their government and Israel for the first time in decades.

“Negotiations are the only way to peace,” said Iyad al‑Kilani. “People are displaced, living on the streets. People aren’t living.”

Other residents, sleeping in tents and cars after fleeing their homes in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah is battling an Israeli ground invasion and heavy aerial bombardment, said they didn’t trust Israel’s intentions in the talks. “If we negotiate, we will be negotiating with someone who only understands force,” said Rabih Hammoud. “They (Israel) must stop the war and leave. Then we can talk.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the Israeli military will continue strikes on the Iran-backed group while the talks in Washington focus on disarming Hezbollah. In just one of many obstacles, the Lebanese government has no direct control over Hezbollah. It also insists on a ceasefire before wider discussions about the future of Hezbollah can take place.

In the Ain al-Mraisseh neighborhood along Beirut’s coastal corniche, where an Israeli strike on Wednesday wiped out the bottom floors of a multistory building, causing a partial collapse, stunned residents tried to salvage whatever furniture and personal mementos they could find in the rubble.

Although now homeless, some men at the scene expressed gratitude that they lost only their apartments, not their loved ones. The strikes killed more than 300 people and wounded over 1,800, authorities said.

“There is no substitute for family,” said Wissam Tabila, 35. “Everything else can be replaced. The house and other things can be replaced, but parents, children, or a wife, this is the most important.”

The World Health Organization said Israel forces had previously issued an evacuation order for Beirut’s Jnah area, which includes the Rafik Hariri — the main public hospital in the city — and Al Zahraa Hospital.

WHO’s top representative in Lebanon said Friday that Israel provided “assurance” after late-night talks with U.N. officials that Israeli forces would not attack the hospitals as they continue military action against Hezbollah.

Dr. Abdinasir Abubakar, speaking to reporters in Geneva, said U.N. officials “got some assurance back saying that these two hospitals will not be attacked.”

Separately, Abubakar said Israeli forces warned that “ambulances will be attacked.” An Israeli army spokesman wrote on X that Hezbollah is “deliberately using ambulances for terror purposes.” Abubakar said WHO was not able to independently confirm those claims.

A top medical official in Iran has put the death toll in the war with Israel and the United States at over 3,000 people.

The state-run IRAN daily newspaper quoted Abbas Masjedi, head of the Legal Medicine Organization, as saying “more than 3,000 people were killed in enemy attacks.” Masjedi did not elaborate on the breakdown in civilian versus military casualties. Iran’s government has not provided any definitive death toll from the weekslong war.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung shared on his X account what appeared to be a 2024 video showing Israeli soldiers throwing a body from a rooftop in the occupied West Bank, and wrote: “humanitarian law must be observed under any circumstances.”

Lee, in his posts Friday, did not make a direct comment on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East or Israel’s current war operations, but said, “Lessons marked on the painful wounds of the past must not be repeated as recurring tragedies.”

Lee said the video, which he reposted from another account, was from a “shocking” incident in September 2024 that was also investigated by Israeli authorities. Lee’s office did not immediately provide an explanation for why he posted those messages. Lee’s government earlier on Friday said it was sending senior diplomat Chung Byung-ha as a special envoy to Iran to discuss the safety of its citizens and Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said the island state will not restrict fuel exports from its refineries due to Iran war disruptions. Singapore was Australia’s largest supplier of refined petroleum products.

“We do not plan to restrict exports. We didn’t have to do so even in the darkest days of COVID, and we will not do so during this energy crisis,” Wong said at a news conference with his Australian counterpart, Anthony Albanese. “It’s hypothetical. It won’t happen,” Wong added.

Albanese said Wong had given the same assurance in their bilateral meeting. “The prime minister’s just as confident in private as he is in public,” Albanese said.

Ukrainian military personnel shot down Iranian-designed Shahed drones in multiple Middle Eastern countries during the Iran war, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, describing the operations as part of a broader effort to help partners counter the same weapons used by Russia in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy made his first public acknowledgment of the operations Wednesday in remarks to reporters that were embargoed until Friday.

Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces took part in active operations abroad using domestically produced, battle-tested interceptor drones.

Asian stocks were mostly up Friday while oil prices also rose on the fragile Iran war ceasefire and ahead of Iran-U.S. negotiations in Pakistan over the weekend.

South Korea’s Kospi was up 1.5% to 5,862.58. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.9% to 56,952.60.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.8% to 25,954.15, while the Shanghai Composite index was also 0.8% higher at 3,996.34.

Brent crude, the international standard, was 1% higher at $96.92 per barrel. Benchmark U.S. crude was up 0.8% to $98.62 a barrel.

For oil prices, “$65-70 a barrel is not coming back,” Ajay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays wrote in a recent research note, referring to the pre-Iran war oil price levels. The bank predicts that Brent crude could remain at around $85 per barrel on average for this year.

“A ceasefire is not a refund,” he wrote. “Ceasefires end wars; they don’t undo them.”

Pakistan’s capital fell unusually quiet Friday as authorities locked down Islamabad ahead of high-stakes talks between the United States and Iran aimed at securing a lasting ceasefire after weeks of war.

Roads lay nearly empty, checkpoints were set up at major arteries, and a two-day public holiday kept residents indoors.

Behind the calm, diplomatic activity intensified.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance is set to leave for Pakistan Friday, while an Iranian delegation was also expected there.

Security was tightened, with additional troops and police deployed across Islamabad.

Talks are set to begin Saturday, drawing global attention and placing Islamabad at the center of efforts to bring an end to the war.

Multiple times overnight into Friday morning, people around Iran’s capital, Tehran, and other parts of the country said they heard what sounded like air defense fire and explosions.

However, Iran’s government did not acknowledge any attack during that period.

After past exchanges of fire with Israel, similar incidents happened as troops remained on edge.

Japan said it will release an additional 20 days’ worth of oil reserves in May, in a second round address supply uncertainty over the war in the Middle East.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the planned release of the government reserves will start in early May, after an earlier release last month.

Japan started releasing about 50 days’ worth of oil reserves in March, including from those held by the state, the private sector and oil-producing Gulf nations.

As of April 6, Japan had 230 days’ worth of oil reserves, including 143 days’ worth in government stockpiles, according to the Natural Resources and Energy Agency.

Takaichi said her government is working to secure oil imports via routes that do not include the Strait of Hormuz, while Japan seeks to diversify suppliers.

Pakistan said Friday it would issue visas on arrival for those traveling to Islamabad for the Iran-U.S. talks, signaling the interest in the world’s media in the event.

A Lebanese civil defense worker, right, stands with a resident at the site of a building destroyed in an Israeli airstrike a day earlier in central Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

A Lebanese civil defense worker looks upward near the site of a building destroyed in an Israeli airstrike a day earlier in central Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

A Lebanese civil defense worker looks on as an excavator operates on the rubble of a building destroyed in an Israeli airstrike a day earlier in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

People residing in an underground shelter pack up their belongings as they prepare to leave after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Men inspect the damage to their home destroyed in an Israeli airstrike a day earlier in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

A government supporter weeps during a mourning ceremony marking the 40th day since the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the U.S. and Israel strikes in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Displaced families extend their hands while waiting for donated food beside the tents they use as shelters after fleeing Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanon, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)