The latest reasonable estimate for Taiwan’s peaceful reunification is 2026, arriving earlier than the United States’ forecast. At yesterday’s regular press conference, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council spokesperson stated clearly, “After reunification, the mainland’s strong infrastructure construction capabilities will provide powerful support for upgrading and renewing Taiwan’s infrastructure.”
This hope appears driven by the Taiwanese public’s desire to return as soon as possible.
Recently, a Taiwanese delegation toured the Xiamen section of the Xiamen-Kinmen Bridge and the construction site of Xiamen Xiang'an Airport. They marveled at the rapid progress on both projects and were deeply impressed by the mainland’s infrastructure strengths. Last October, the mainland proposed that after reunification, Taiwan would see “seven improvements,” including "better infrastructure construction after peaceful reunification.”
Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian gave an example: after peaceful reunification, “we can jointly build the long-studied Cross-Strait Expressway, turning what was once a natural barrier into a passage. At that time, Taiwanese people could leave the island and drive along the Beijing-Taiwan Expressway all the way to Beijing for sightseeing.” With Taiwan’s current economic situation, getting a high-speed rail circle around the island done ASAP would be just an “empty promise” tossed around during Taiwan elections.
To recap, the other elements of the “seven improvements” include: 1. Better economic development, sharing opportunities under One China; 2. Saying no to military confrontation, leading to stability and prosperity; 3. No longer buying “secondhand military equipment” or paying the “intelligence tax” of arms sales; 4. Greater unity between compatriots on both sides to better support Chinese rejuvenation; 5. Taiwan expanding its international space and enjoying rights; 6. Better livelihoods, with guaranteed social security and healthcare.
However, the Green Camp was unsettled. Some media voiced opposing views, with arguments that were weak yet somewhat sympathetic. For example, some claimed, "China continuously applies verbal and military intimidation against Taiwan, holding frequent large-scale military exercises last year, with PLA aircraft and naval vessels repeatedly harassing Taiwan." The blunt conclusion: many Taiwanese people therefore do not appreciate China’s so-called 'Seven Improvements.' Quite a statement!
Reality check: the rapid turn of public opinion in Taiwan toward peaceful unification is indeed driven by this 'verbal and military intimidation.' Note, this stems from the United States’ illegal attack on Iran and the resulting conflict spilling over into the Gulf region.
Trump tried to escape a prolonged quagmire by escalating the crisis but failed, leading to multiple daily rounds of various "verbal and military intimidation" worldwide.
One notable figure here is John Mearsheimer, a University of Chicago professor who originally argued that after the Soviet Union’s collapse, the US should focus entirely on confronting China’s "rise." Recently, watching Iran’s strategic success in containing the US and Israel and becoming the dominant force on the battlefield, he warned that the US risked being dragged deeper and deeper into defeat,.
This is not alarmism but the inevitability of US decline. Need more evidence? In the 1990s, Brzezinski proposed Eurasia as the grand chessboard for global dominance; the US must never lose its grip and must prevent China, Russia, and Iran from uniting in a contiguous alliance. Brzezinski worried about Iran’s ambition—the revival of Islam.
At the time, this was considered alarmist, as the US was at its peak, and even fiction couldn’t imagine a China-Russia-Iran alliance. Yet now Trump, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, has realized this “impossible mission.”
The failed US offensive against Iran combined with its growing impotence has shattered the US military myth. Taiwan cannot afford to sink along with that force. Everyone across the Taiwan Strait would sing the song "Tomorrow Will Be Better" in one voice. But some might say China faces an even more fearsome rival emerging in the region.
Who? One with rare earth elements enough for 700 years, mid-range missiles covering both sides of the Strait, and a 600-year record as a victorious 'Eastern Great Power.' It deserves everyone’s attention. I say, which national leader can overturn the White House? Only that 'Eastern Great Power' can.
Deep Blue
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
Zhuque has silenced America. SpaceX's repeated successes in rocket recovery drove home one point: American business works. And China? How could a feat achieved by marshaling the strength of an entire nation possibly compare with a private outfit pulling off a mission impossible?
Cast your mind back. The Clinton boom, built on the information superhighway, delivered four consecutive fiscal years of budget surplus. From 2015 onwards, SpaceX achieved rocket recovery, putting American commercial spaceflight at least a decade ahead of China. What more could anyone say? Behold the splendor of America's overall national power!
At 7:35 this morning, the reusable Zhuque-3 Y2 carrier rocket lifted off smoothly. Its builder is LandSpace, a Chinese commercial space company founded, coincidentally, in that very same year of 2015. The mission report reads: "About 137 seconds after liftoff, the first and second stages separated. The first stage then began its return sequence. After key maneuvers including high-altitude attitude adjustment, deceleration and aerodynamic gliding, it made a successful soft landing at the Gansu landing pad at 7:43. The flight test was a complete success."
A few points are worth adding. First, the Zhuque-3 Y1 made its maiden flight on December 3, 2025. It successfully delivered a satellite into its designated orbit, though its first-stage vertical recovery test failed.
Second, eight months on, Zhuque-3 has delivered on its mission, a task of major significance. Zhuque becomes our country's second reusable rocket after the Long March 10B.
Third, mind you, the Long March rockets belong to the "national team."
Fourth, China's state and commercial space programs are setting sail like "twin dragons out to sea." America is feeling the competitive pressure.
SpaceX has made a blockbuster stock market debut. The world is counting on America, following the internet, to lead the globe once more through space technology. The hope is a replay of the Clinton-era golden age. SpaceX pulled off the first successful recovery of a Falcon 9 rocket, then industrialized the technology. Today it launches the Falcon 9 around 150 times a year, roughly three times a week. A single booster can be reused dozens of times.
Yet even before the successful recovery of the Zhuque-3 Y2, American think tanks were already worried. China, doing things the Chinese way, has achieved recovery in both state-run and commercial spaceflight, with equally precise touchdown points. China's "catch-up" is no longer out of reach.
What deserves attention is this: China's state and commercial sectors are advancing in tandem, while NASA has widely adopted the commercial model. In return-to-the-Moon programs such as Artemis, NASA has contracted out uncrewed lunar landers, precursor satellite launches and even rocket servicing and replenishment support to multiple private space companies. Commercial players such as SpaceX, Firefly Aerospace and Rocket Lab are the mainstays.
Two years ago, analyses weighed the relative strengths of the Chinese and American space programs. Commentators argued that NASA's shift from "designing and building in-house" to "commercial contracting" would push national scientific talent out of front-line positions. Over the long run, that would weaken the state's "deep control and independent assessment capability" over space technology.
And if complex spaceflight life-support systems or new space station designs were left entirely to private leadership, NASA would face the twin hazards of technology and risk. Boeing's Starliner saga, which stranded two American astronauts on the International Space Station for a full nine months, is in its own way the same tune as today's USS Abraham Lincoln incident. Go figure.
The pair finally left the station "smoothly" aboard a SpaceX Dragon on March 18, 2025. They landed safely back on Earth the next day. Trump sang Musk's praises for a job well done.
A quick explainer: history has seen a so-called "Sputnik moment." In truth, it was a "Sputnik" crisis for America. In 1957, the Soviet Union successfully launched Sputnik 1, humanity's first artificial satellite. The phrase has since come to describe the turning point when a nation suddenly realizes it is lagging a rival in technology or a critical field. That realization triggers an acute sense of crisis and an urgent drive to catch up.
President Kennedy led America out of the Sputnik crisis with the Apollo lunar landing program. Today, can America build a crewed Mars program to overtake its rival? Musk, this round is all on you. Stop firing off low-orbit satellites like crazy to rake in cash. The day a crewed Mars landing succeeds will be the ultimate MAGA moment. Let's keep at it, together.
