Trump to China: The Game Isn't Over — It's Just Getting Started

After Trump was told that the price of backing Taiwan independence was losing a massive Chinese deal, you might have expected the White House to come crawling back to Beijing.
You would be wrong. When the White House team returned home, their first instinct was to double down — to place an even bigger bet against China.
 
French media earlier described this landmark summit as a "limited de-escalation" — not a genuine reconciliation. That characterisation holds. The word "limited" carries a built-in expiry date. Both Washington and Beijing recognise that sustained confrontation is nothing short of a runaway car hurtling toward a cliff edge.
 
So, both sides called a timeout. But the game is far from over. What is clear is that both sides will use this window to pursue bolder, more aggressive positioning — unless, of course, they have no desire to win.
 
On Sunday, Trump warned that Iran would be "completely wiped out" if Tehran refused to reach a deal with Washington. Axios reported that Trump will convene a meeting in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday, 19 May, to discuss military options against Iran.
 
Iran — again, Iran. What is Washington really after this time?
 
Think about it and you’ll understand. White House strategists still believe China is not truly strong. China has rare earths, but America controls oil. If China's supply lines are severed and effectively blockaded, China's strength will diminish.
 
China is currently the world's largest oil buyer. Its oil imports for January to February this year grew 15.8% year-on-year. Notably, even as domestic oil consumption has declined steadily over the past year, China continues to expand its strategic petroleum reserves. A mid-March article in The New York Times examined China's anxiety over oil. Experts quoted in that piece stated that "China is preparing for geopolitical tensions triggered by the United States."
 
The reality is that China's two major sources of cheap oil — Venezuela and Iran — have both come under successive American assault. Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was overthrown and extradited to the United States, where he is detained in a New York prison awaiting trial. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli military strike on 28 February.
 
Trump has previously stated his intention to take over Venezuela's oil industry. Should the US press its advantage and seize Iran's supply — which accounts for 13% of China's oil imports — China would find itself in a position of complete vulnerability over its energy supply.
 
The real question is whether the United States has not just the resolve, but the raw power to bring down the Iranian regime. And, China still has one more card to play: Russia.
 
Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting China. China has maintained its status as Russia's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years. Bilateral trade in the first quarter of 2026 reached US$61.2 billion, up 15% year-on-year. Energy trade remains the cornerstone of this relationship. In 2025, China imported over 100 million tonnes of Russian oil — a record high.
 
Meanwhile, Russia's natural gas exports to China have, for the first time, exceeded its gas supplies to Europe. China is now the largest export market for Russian gas.
 
The centrepiece of Putin's visit is understood to be the advancement of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project. If realised, this pipeline would fundamentally reshape the energy landscape between China and Russia.
 
In addition, the existing "Power of Siberia 1" pipeline is set to increase its capacity. As one analyst put it, these two pipelines are like two arteries, firmly binding the energy systems of China and Russia together.
 
Could Trump employ diplomatic manoeuvres — "aligning with Russia to contain China," for instance — to put pressure on Beijing? Consider this: Russia's economy is under sweeping Western sanctions, the Russia-Ukraine war is winding down, and the White House has been extending olive branches to Putin. What could Washington realistically offer that would prise Russia away from China?
 
If you ask me, I would say, “aligning with Russia against China" is a fantasy. The China-Russia relationship is a ballast stone — it absorbs pressure without shifting.
 
Beyond energy cooperation, Russia's key objective is to consolidate the bilateral settlement mechanism with China. This move is aimed squarely at de-dollarisation. Putin will push this agenda further during his visit. As a result, the US dollar and the SWIFT system will face mounting challenges.
 
Postscript: The United States is reportedly considering renaming its military operation against Iran. Should President Trump approve a new round of airstrikes or bombing, the operation — currently named "Epic Fury" — may be renamed "Operation Hammer."
 
Trump puts on a captivating performance, one act after another. Stay tuned.

Deep Blue

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

Two stories have surfaced in mainstream Western media. Both come from European state broadcasters. Both are telling.

"On June 23, imprisoned Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai officially received the Deutsche Welle Freedom of Speech Award. His daughter, Lai Choi, accepted the award on her father's behalf at DW's headquarters in Bonn and sat down for an interview with DW." — Deutsche Welle

"June 24 marked the fifth anniversary of the forced closure of Apple Daily. Yet many Hong Kong people have clearly not forgotten the once outspoken and widely read newspaper, making a special trip to Taipei to view an exhibition tracing the paper's 26-year journey." — Radio France INternationale (RFI).

Deutsche Welle hands out a "Jimmy Lai Award." RFI follows with an "Apple Daily Fifth Anniversary" commemoration. The symbolism is profound. Matters of genuine international concern. And because both outlets carry state-broadcaster status, there is all the more reason to approach all reportings on Chinese affairs with cool-headed restraint. In China, the law now speaks clearly on such matters.

On March 12, 2026, China's National People's Congress passed the Law on the Promotion of Ethnic Unity and Progress, which takes effect on July 1. The law was enacted to "forge strong sense of community for Chinese nation". It comprises seven chapters and 65 articles, covering education, language, publishing, the internet, business activities, and religion. Its reach extends to Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas Chinese communities.

The move has triggered unprecedented anxiety among foreign forces — that is, foreigners, foreign organizations, and institutions engaged in conduct hostile to China. A local Japanese councilor has warned citizens that "criticizing China's ethnic minority or religious policies while abroad, particularly openly supporting Taiwan, could be deemed a violation by Beijing." A British think tank has cautioned that "China is expanding the extraterritorial application of its laws to tighten cross-border pressure on overseas businesses, organizations, and individuals connected to Taiwan."

For those foreign forces who remain unclear about this law, let me state it plainly. Under Chinese law, Taiwan independence, Xinjiang independence, and Hong Kong independence are serious violations that split the nation and destroy ethnic unity. They will be pursued with full severity.

Consider a recent law enforcement action in Hong Kong. On June 24, the National Security Department of the Hong Kong Police Force conducted an operation, raiding the "Hunter Bookstore" in Sham Shui Po and arresting one local woman and one local man. The pair had been selling and displaying publications with seditious intent at the store, and had regularly organized talks and sharing sessions targeting young people and students. The sessions incited hatred toward the Hong Kong SAR Government, the judiciary, and law enforcement agencies. 

Take note: among the allegedly unlawful items were publications sold at the "Hunter Bookstore" — including The Jimmy Lai Biography and works by cartoonist Zunzi.

This is not a legal lecture. But it is a story worth telling. In 2021, representatives from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom used a United Nations venue to host a video conference. Reportedly attended by delegates from dozens of countries, the meeting focused on human rights issues in Xinjiang — allegations of concentration camps, forced labor, and even genocide. Yet those in attendance revealed no specific details and disclosed no investigative evidence. What was reported was simply that "various human rights issues allegedly exist in Xinjiang."

What was peculiar is that Western journalists, politicians, and academics declined to answer challenges from the "verifier": China. Instead, they demanded that China, the very party being accused, prove its own innocence. The verdict is plain: if the West were genuinely strong, this might be called audacious. If the West is merely posturing, it should be called shameless.

Western champions of human rights and democracy have long relied on fabricated material about the Chinese government's alleged suppression of ethnic minorities and so-called "democracy activists." This material is then recycled through mainstream Western media as pointed questions directed at China. The effect is an illusion where the false appears true and the true appears false. A convenient mechanism for "foreign forces" to attack China.

For years, the West has wielded the twin banners of human rights and democracy — augmented by so-called "Western press freedom" — as instruments to attack China's sovereignty without limit and undermine our national unity. This cannot be allowed to continue. Rather than engaging in endless back-and-forth, it is better to lay down clear rules and let everyone act accordingly.