Trump to China: The Game Isn't Over — It's Just Getting Started

After Trump was told that the price of backing Taiwan independence was losing a massive Chinese deal, you might have expected the White House to come crawling back to Beijing.
You would be wrong. When the White House team returned home, their first instinct was to double down — to place an even bigger bet against China.
 
French media earlier described this landmark summit as a "limited de-escalation" — not a genuine reconciliation. That characterisation holds. The word "limited" carries a built-in expiry date. Both Washington and Beijing recognise that sustained confrontation is nothing short of a runaway car hurtling toward a cliff edge.
 
So, both sides called a timeout. But the game is far from over. What is clear is that both sides will use this window to pursue bolder, more aggressive positioning — unless, of course, they have no desire to win.
 
On Sunday, Trump warned that Iran would be "completely wiped out" if Tehran refused to reach a deal with Washington. Axios reported that Trump will convene a meeting in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday, 19 May, to discuss military options against Iran.
 
Iran — again, Iran. What is Washington really after this time?
 
Think about it and you’ll understand. White House strategists still believe China is not truly strong. China has rare earths, but America controls oil. If China's supply lines are severed and effectively blockaded, China's strength will diminish.
 
China is currently the world's largest oil buyer. Its oil imports for January to February this year grew 15.8% year-on-year. Notably, even as domestic oil consumption has declined steadily over the past year, China continues to expand its strategic petroleum reserves. A mid-March article in The New York Times examined China's anxiety over oil. Experts quoted in that piece stated that "China is preparing for geopolitical tensions triggered by the United States."
 
The reality is that China's two major sources of cheap oil — Venezuela and Iran — have both come under successive American assault. Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was overthrown and extradited to the United States, where he is detained in a New York prison awaiting trial. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli military strike on 28 February.
 
Trump has previously stated his intention to take over Venezuela's oil industry. Should the US press its advantage and seize Iran's supply — which accounts for 13% of China's oil imports — China would find itself in a position of complete vulnerability over its energy supply.
 
The real question is whether the United States has not just the resolve, but the raw power to bring down the Iranian regime. And, China still has one more card to play: Russia.
 
Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting China. China has maintained its status as Russia's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years. Bilateral trade in the first quarter of 2026 reached US$61.2 billion, up 15% year-on-year. Energy trade remains the cornerstone of this relationship. In 2025, China imported over 100 million tonnes of Russian oil — a record high.
 
Meanwhile, Russia's natural gas exports to China have, for the first time, exceeded its gas supplies to Europe. China is now the largest export market for Russian gas.
 
The centrepiece of Putin's visit is understood to be the advancement of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project. If realised, this pipeline would fundamentally reshape the energy landscape between China and Russia.
 
In addition, the existing "Power of Siberia 1" pipeline is set to increase its capacity. As one analyst put it, these two pipelines are like two arteries, firmly binding the energy systems of China and Russia together.
 
Could Trump employ diplomatic manoeuvres — "aligning with Russia to contain China," for instance — to put pressure on Beijing? Consider this: Russia's economy is under sweeping Western sanctions, the Russia-Ukraine war is winding down, and the White House has been extending olive branches to Putin. What could Washington realistically offer that would prise Russia away from China?
 
If you ask me, I would say, “aligning with Russia against China" is a fantasy. The China-Russia relationship is a ballast stone — it absorbs pressure without shifting.
 
Beyond energy cooperation, Russia's key objective is to consolidate the bilateral settlement mechanism with China. This move is aimed squarely at de-dollarisation. Putin will push this agenda further during his visit. As a result, the US dollar and the SWIFT system will face mounting challenges.
 
Postscript: The United States is reportedly considering renaming its military operation against Iran. Should President Trump approve a new round of airstrikes or bombing, the operation — currently named "Epic Fury" — may be renamed "Operation Hammer."
 
Trump puts on a captivating performance, one act after another. Stay tuned.

Deep Blue

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

In the latest international upheaval, Europe is taking the hardest hit. After 300 years of modern civilization and the churn of imperial powers, that era is gone, and a better tomorrow is nowhere in sight.

Europe has one problem: it cannot take care of itself. “No one really knows whether Europe would still be able to produce toothpaste if it weren’t for China,” the EU Chamber of Commerce said.
 
Europe doesn’t make toothpaste; it sells luxury brands. Fine — look at the latest news. Reuters reports that the U.S.-Israel-Iran war has delivered a blow to European luxury labels. Sales at Dubai’s upscale malls, packed with wealthy shoppers, have fallen 50 percent, and LVMH, France’s largest luxury group, says wealthy Middle Eastern customers have paused spending in Europe because of the conflict in the Gulf region.
 
The New York Times, in a piece headlined “Europe Is Done With Appeasing Trump”, lays out several of Europe’s current pains.
 
“The barrage of tariffs that opened the second Trump administration, aimed indiscriminately at friend and foe; the brazen demands that Denmark cede Greenland to the United States, and now the absence of any consultation with European allies before joining Israel in an attack on Iran that has affected the entire world, have erased any illusion among most Europeans that Mr. Trump is anything but an unpredictable, vindictive and uncontrollable danger,” it wrote.
 
Trump’s latest move is to impose a blockade on all Iranian ports from Monday, adding another barrier in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. president has repeatedly said, with obvious satisfaction, that America has oil and natural gas, and that oil shipping blockage cannot bring the United States to its knees. In other words, if Iran wants a war of attrition, the White House is ready to go all the way. America’s NATO allies, meanwhile, make clear they will “decline to join in.” Europe’s oil supply is already under pressure: Russian oil and gas are cut off, and Middle Eastern shipping now faces a second lock. So is Trump punishing Iran, or Europe?
 
“Last year, export controls imposed by Beijing on seven rare earth elements and the magnets made from them had especially severe consequences. China is a global leader in the production of these critical raw materials, which are widely used in electric motors, smartphones, and numerous everyday electronic devices,” Deutsche Welle reported. “The EU Chamber of Commerce said nearly one-third of its member companies indicated in a questionnaire survey at the beginning of this year that their business had been affected by China’s export control measures.”

The EU Chamber of Commerce knows perfectly well that China-EU relations have been pulled off course by the United States, and that Europe has not shaped its foreign and trade policy around its own interests. It has even had to tear out 5G networks built by Huawei and ZTE, while Chinese electric vehicles face restrictions. That has only made China-EU ties more tangled. Europe can hardly be called arrogant now. Energy supplies are unstable, and rare earth constraints have turned it into an industrial power with nothing usable to work with. So what now?
 
Although calls to “de-risk” economic ties with China have persisted for years, many European companies continue to bet on the Chinese market. Over the past year, EU figures show that 26% of companies said they were relocating their supply chains to China, “a proportion twice that of companies choosing to move their supply chains out of China or establish a second hub overseas.” The trend is clearly still going strong.
 
Europe’s major powers, including France, Italy and Germany, all feel the need to break free from the manipulation and humiliation imposed by the United States, especially the Trump team. Europe has finally woken up and is now pushing for independence and autonomy, placing its national destiny firmly in its own hands.
 
Nothing in the world is difficult if you are willing to scale the heights. Europe becoming strong again is no dream, but starting over takes patience. I would say 300 years is enough for you to turn things around.