Trump to China: The Game Isn't Over — It's Just Getting Started

After Trump was told that the price of backing Taiwan independence was losing a massive Chinese deal, you might have expected the White House to come crawling back to Beijing.
You would be wrong. When the White House team returned home, their first instinct was to double down — to place an even bigger bet against China.
 
French media earlier described this landmark summit as a "limited de-escalation" — not a genuine reconciliation. That characterisation holds. The word "limited" carries a built-in expiry date. Both Washington and Beijing recognise that sustained confrontation is nothing short of a runaway car hurtling toward a cliff edge.
 
So, both sides called a timeout. But the game is far from over. What is clear is that both sides will use this window to pursue bolder, more aggressive positioning — unless, of course, they have no desire to win.
 
On Sunday, Trump warned that Iran would be "completely wiped out" if Tehran refused to reach a deal with Washington. Axios reported that Trump will convene a meeting in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday, 19 May, to discuss military options against Iran.
 
Iran — again, Iran. What is Washington really after this time?
 
Think about it and you’ll understand. White House strategists still believe China is not truly strong. China has rare earths, but America controls oil. If China's supply lines are severed and effectively blockaded, China's strength will diminish.
 
China is currently the world's largest oil buyer. Its oil imports for January to February this year grew 15.8% year-on-year. Notably, even as domestic oil consumption has declined steadily over the past year, China continues to expand its strategic petroleum reserves. A mid-March article in The New York Times examined China's anxiety over oil. Experts quoted in that piece stated that "China is preparing for geopolitical tensions triggered by the United States."
 
The reality is that China's two major sources of cheap oil — Venezuela and Iran — have both come under successive American assault. Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was overthrown and extradited to the United States, where he is detained in a New York prison awaiting trial. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli military strike on 28 February.
 
Trump has previously stated his intention to take over Venezuela's oil industry. Should the US press its advantage and seize Iran's supply — which accounts for 13% of China's oil imports — China would find itself in a position of complete vulnerability over its energy supply.
 
The real question is whether the United States has not just the resolve, but the raw power to bring down the Iranian regime. And, China still has one more card to play: Russia.
 
Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting China. China has maintained its status as Russia's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years. Bilateral trade in the first quarter of 2026 reached US$61.2 billion, up 15% year-on-year. Energy trade remains the cornerstone of this relationship. In 2025, China imported over 100 million tonnes of Russian oil — a record high.
 
Meanwhile, Russia's natural gas exports to China have, for the first time, exceeded its gas supplies to Europe. China is now the largest export market for Russian gas.
 
The centrepiece of Putin's visit is understood to be the advancement of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project. If realised, this pipeline would fundamentally reshape the energy landscape between China and Russia.
 
In addition, the existing "Power of Siberia 1" pipeline is set to increase its capacity. As one analyst put it, these two pipelines are like two arteries, firmly binding the energy systems of China and Russia together.
 
Could Trump employ diplomatic manoeuvres — "aligning with Russia to contain China," for instance — to put pressure on Beijing? Consider this: Russia's economy is under sweeping Western sanctions, the Russia-Ukraine war is winding down, and the White House has been extending olive branches to Putin. What could Washington realistically offer that would prise Russia away from China?
 
If you ask me, I would say, “aligning with Russia against China" is a fantasy. The China-Russia relationship is a ballast stone — it absorbs pressure without shifting.
 
Beyond energy cooperation, Russia's key objective is to consolidate the bilateral settlement mechanism with China. This move is aimed squarely at de-dollarisation. Putin will push this agenda further during his visit. As a result, the US dollar and the SWIFT system will face mounting challenges.
 
Postscript: The United States is reportedly considering renaming its military operation against Iran. Should President Trump approve a new round of airstrikes or bombing, the operation — currently named "Epic Fury" — may be renamed "Operation Hammer."
 
Trump puts on a captivating performance, one act after another. Stay tuned.

Deep Blue

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

Zhuque has silenced America. SpaceX's repeated successes in rocket recovery drove home one point: American business works. And China? How could a feat achieved by marshaling the strength of an entire nation possibly compare with a private outfit pulling off a mission impossible?

Cast your mind back. The Clinton boom, built on the information superhighway, delivered four consecutive fiscal years of budget surplus. From 2015 onwards, SpaceX achieved rocket recovery, putting American commercial spaceflight at least a decade ahead of China. What more could anyone say? Behold the splendor of America's overall national power!

At 7:35 this morning, the reusable Zhuque-3 Y2 carrier rocket lifted off smoothly. Its builder is LandSpace, a Chinese commercial space company founded, coincidentally, in that very same year of 2015. The mission report reads: "About 137 seconds after liftoff, the first and second stages separated. The first stage then began its return sequence. After key maneuvers including high-altitude attitude adjustment, deceleration and aerodynamic gliding, it made a successful soft landing at the Gansu landing pad at 7:43. The flight test was a complete success."

A few points are worth adding. First, the Zhuque-3 Y1 made its maiden flight on December 3, 2025. It successfully delivered a satellite into its designated orbit, though its first-stage vertical recovery test failed.

Second, eight months on, Zhuque-3 has delivered on its mission, a task of major significance. Zhuque becomes our country's second reusable rocket after the Long March 10B.

Third, mind you, the Long March rockets belong to the "national team."

Fourth, China's state and commercial space programs are setting sail like "twin dragons out to sea." America is feeling the competitive pressure.

SpaceX has made a blockbuster stock market debut. The world is counting on America, following the internet, to lead the globe once more through space technology. The hope is a replay of the Clinton-era golden age. SpaceX pulled off the first successful recovery of a Falcon 9 rocket, then industrialized the technology. Today it launches the Falcon 9 around 150 times a year, roughly three times a week. A single booster can be reused dozens of times.

Yet even before the successful recovery of the Zhuque-3 Y2, American think tanks were already worried. China, doing things the Chinese way, has achieved recovery in both state-run and commercial spaceflight, with equally precise touchdown points. China's "catch-up" is no longer out of reach.

What deserves attention is this: China's state and commercial sectors are advancing in tandem, while NASA has widely adopted the commercial model. In return-to-the-Moon programs such as Artemis, NASA has contracted out uncrewed lunar landers, precursor satellite launches and even rocket servicing and replenishment support to multiple private space companies. Commercial players such as SpaceX, Firefly Aerospace and Rocket Lab are the mainstays.

Two years ago, analyses weighed the relative strengths of the Chinese and American space programs. Commentators argued that NASA's shift from "designing and building in-house" to "commercial contracting" would push national scientific talent out of front-line positions. Over the long run, that would weaken the state's "deep control and independent assessment capability" over space technology.

And if complex spaceflight life-support systems or new space station designs were left entirely to private leadership, NASA would face the twin hazards of technology and risk. Boeing's Starliner saga, which stranded two American astronauts on the International Space Station for a full nine months, is in its own way the same tune as today's USS Abraham Lincoln incident. Go figure.

The pair finally left the station "smoothly" aboard a SpaceX Dragon on March 18, 2025. They landed safely back on Earth the next day. Trump sang Musk's praises for a job well done.

A quick explainer: history has seen a so-called "Sputnik moment." In truth, it was a "Sputnik" crisis for America. In 1957, the Soviet Union successfully launched Sputnik 1, humanity's first artificial satellite. The phrase has since come to describe the turning point when a nation suddenly realizes it is lagging a rival in technology or a critical field. That realization triggers an acute sense of crisis and an urgent drive to catch up.

President Kennedy led America out of the Sputnik crisis with the Apollo lunar landing program. Today, can America build a crewed Mars program to overtake its rival? Musk, this round is all on you. Stop firing off low-orbit satellites like crazy to rake in cash. The day a crewed Mars landing succeeds will be the ultimate MAGA moment. Let's keep at it, together.