Trump to China: The Game Isn't Over — It's Just Getting Started

After Trump was told that the price of backing Taiwan independence was losing a massive Chinese deal, you might have expected the White House to come crawling back to Beijing.
You would be wrong. When the White House team returned home, their first instinct was to double down — to place an even bigger bet against China.
 
French media earlier described this landmark summit as a "limited de-escalation" — not a genuine reconciliation. That characterisation holds. The word "limited" carries a built-in expiry date. Both Washington and Beijing recognise that sustained confrontation is nothing short of a runaway car hurtling toward a cliff edge.
 
So, both sides called a timeout. But the game is far from over. What is clear is that both sides will use this window to pursue bolder, more aggressive positioning — unless, of course, they have no desire to win.
 
On Sunday, Trump warned that Iran would be "completely wiped out" if Tehran refused to reach a deal with Washington. Axios reported that Trump will convene a meeting in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday, 19 May, to discuss military options against Iran.
 
Iran — again, Iran. What is Washington really after this time?
 
Think about it and you’ll understand. White House strategists still believe China is not truly strong. China has rare earths, but America controls oil. If China's supply lines are severed and effectively blockaded, China's strength will diminish.
 
China is currently the world's largest oil buyer. Its oil imports for January to February this year grew 15.8% year-on-year. Notably, even as domestic oil consumption has declined steadily over the past year, China continues to expand its strategic petroleum reserves. A mid-March article in The New York Times examined China's anxiety over oil. Experts quoted in that piece stated that "China is preparing for geopolitical tensions triggered by the United States."
 
The reality is that China's two major sources of cheap oil — Venezuela and Iran — have both come under successive American assault. Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was overthrown and extradited to the United States, where he is detained in a New York prison awaiting trial. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli military strike on 28 February.
 
Trump has previously stated his intention to take over Venezuela's oil industry. Should the US press its advantage and seize Iran's supply — which accounts for 13% of China's oil imports — China would find itself in a position of complete vulnerability over its energy supply.
 
The real question is whether the United States has not just the resolve, but the raw power to bring down the Iranian regime. And, China still has one more card to play: Russia.
 
Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting China. China has maintained its status as Russia's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years. Bilateral trade in the first quarter of 2026 reached US$61.2 billion, up 15% year-on-year. Energy trade remains the cornerstone of this relationship. In 2025, China imported over 100 million tonnes of Russian oil — a record high.
 
Meanwhile, Russia's natural gas exports to China have, for the first time, exceeded its gas supplies to Europe. China is now the largest export market for Russian gas.
 
The centrepiece of Putin's visit is understood to be the advancement of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project. If realised, this pipeline would fundamentally reshape the energy landscape between China and Russia.
 
In addition, the existing "Power of Siberia 1" pipeline is set to increase its capacity. As one analyst put it, these two pipelines are like two arteries, firmly binding the energy systems of China and Russia together.
 
Could Trump employ diplomatic manoeuvres — "aligning with Russia to contain China," for instance — to put pressure on Beijing? Consider this: Russia's economy is under sweeping Western sanctions, the Russia-Ukraine war is winding down, and the White House has been extending olive branches to Putin. What could Washington realistically offer that would prise Russia away from China?
 
If you ask me, I would say, “aligning with Russia against China" is a fantasy. The China-Russia relationship is a ballast stone — it absorbs pressure without shifting.
 
Beyond energy cooperation, Russia's key objective is to consolidate the bilateral settlement mechanism with China. This move is aimed squarely at de-dollarisation. Putin will push this agenda further during his visit. As a result, the US dollar and the SWIFT system will face mounting challenges.
 
Postscript: The United States is reportedly considering renaming its military operation against Iran. Should President Trump approve a new round of airstrikes or bombing, the operation — currently named "Epic Fury" — may be renamed "Operation Hammer."
 
Trump puts on a captivating performance, one act after another. Stay tuned.

Deep Blue

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

An epidemic, once it tips, is terrifying. Look at Baltimore in the mid-1990s. Drug enforcement had collapsed. Black-market forces took root, and prostitution, gambling, and drugs ignited a syphilis outbreak. 

Malcolm Gladwell, a renowned American journalist, saw a pattern: everything is contagious, with causes and effects. In 2000, he turned that insight into 'The Tipping Point.' It became an instant hit.

Europe's industrial powers are hooked on the 'China overcapacity' and 'China shock' story. They use it as a cover for discriminatory trade barriers. Now Beijing is hitting back with a mix of hard and soft tactics to steer the global conversation back to healthy growth.

Beijing is making its case. In a signed article in People's Daily, commentator Huan Yuping spells it out. The headline: 'Bidding Farewell to the Old Narrative of "China Shock" and Embracing the New Answer of "China Opportunity".' He writes: 'Over the past decade and more, China has been an important engine for world economic growth, contributing around 30% to global economic growth.' 

The article coins a new term: 'China Opportunity 2.0'. It's 'an important engine for global innovation cooperation. China has always insisted on open innovation, forging an effective path of leading industrial innovation with technological innovation and promoting technological iteration through industrial upgrading.' But the author points to a deeper problem: the West is haunted by its own demons.

"Yet some countries remain trapped in the 'China threat' narrative. They pursue decoupling under the banner of 'de-risking' and protectionism under the guise of 'fair competition.' These moves don't fix their own structural problems. Instead, they disrupt global supply chains, fuel inflation, hurt businesses and consumers, and pose long-term systemic risks to the world economy."

Germany Pokes the Bear, China Hits Back

China doesn't have to play nice. There is no obligation to chase harmony without limits—especially when others cross the line. Bloomberg reports that the German government is digging into trade flows, supply chains, and company-level data to try to find out China's economic weak spots. 

They want to see where China still depends on German and European technology, specialized components, and industrial patents. Their early assessment names Trumpf Group and Carl Zeiss.

This isn't just about trade friction. Think of it like a virus, as Gladwell does. Ideas, products, behaviors—they all spread the same way. A handful of carriers at first. Then, suddenly, a tipping point. The infection explodes overnight into a full-blown epidemic.

China is a responsible power. But it must stop a tipping point from turning into a prairie fire. If someone tries to be the detonator—smashing China's window to spark chaos—we have to act. Decisively.

China is already hitting back. Last month, it blacklisted two American companies vital to the U.S. effort to build a strong rare earth magnet supply chain. On Friday, Beijing went after European firms. The Ministry of Commerce banned further shipments of dual-use materials or products to 14 EU companies. 

The New York Times explains: these items have potential military and civilian uses. The result? These companies will struggle to procure many critical minerals needed to make rare earth magnets and semiconductors—the building blocks of cars, offshore wind turbines, robots, drones, and other advanced manufacturing.

The Cure: Fix the Broken Window

Huan Yuping put it plainly: 'Truly competitive industrial advantages are forged in open competition, not incubated behind protectionist barriers.' Gladwell's insight is just as sharp. Humans are incredibly sensitive to their environment. Correct the tiniest detail. Fix that one broken window. You can reverse an epidemic. You can crush stubborn crime rates.

You know what I mean.