Japan's move to lift its ban on lethal arms exports risks plunging Asia into a "security dilemma" in balancing self-defense with maintaining regional stability, said an expert in Japanese foreign policy and Sino-Japanese relations.
The Japanese government on Tuesday officially revised the "three principles on transfer of defense equipment and technology" and their implementation guidelines to allow overseas sales of weapons, including those with lethal capabilities.
Assistant professor Oh Seung-hee at Republic of Korea's Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security said that increasing a nation's capacity for defense is not unique to Japan but ending the ban on the export of lethal weapons may trigger an arms race in the region.
"While these efforts should ideally serve as a deterrent to prevent conflict, they are instead manifesting as an arms race. I am concerned that we are falling into a 'security dilemma' where intensified competition actually worsens the security environment," said Oh.
"Recently, the defense industry has become a vital sector for both economic growth and military strength. We have entered a new era of warfare where advanced AI and drones merge with military power - a trend that has accelerated since the Russia-Ukraine war. Consequently, developing and exporting new weaponry has become crucial. Japan's move reflects an effort to participate actively in defense exports. Since the defense industry is also a major focus for South Korea, competition and the overall importance of the export market will only continue to intensify," she said.
Highlighting the importance of enhancing defense while sustaining peace in the new era, Oh called for constant communication among ROK, Japan and China, which she believes is necessary to ensure red lines are not crossed.
"In this new era of conflict, every nation must weigh how to strengthen defense while maintaining peace. We must discuss how to ensure that individual national actions do not threaten neighbors. Rather than acting alone, countries must meet to discuss regional stability and ensure 'red lines' are not crossed. Beyond ROK-U.S.-Japan cooperation, we need continuous ROK-China-Japan dialogue. Managing these boundaries through constant communication is essential to ensure self-defense doesn't compromise regional peace," Oh said.
Expert warns of 'security dilemma' as Japan scraps ban on lethal arms exports
