Fragile Israel-Lebanon ceasefire under mounting pressure amid regional tensions: expert

The fragile and frequently violated ceasefire in Lebanon is coming under mounting strain amid rising political and military pressures across the Middle East, according to Daniel Levy, a former senior adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak.

In an interview aired on Wednesday by China Global Television Network (CGTN), Levy said tensions remain high, with clashes continuing, despite an extension of a ceasefire, with developments on other fronts in the region likely to determine whether hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon fully resume.

"Partly, that depends on whether the U.S. allows Israel sufficient destructive freedom of operation, that if Iran conditions one deal on another, it brings the whole thing crumbling down. So, in order to uphold this ceasefire, America has imposed certain limitations on Israel's actions in Lebanon. However, first of all, the reverse probably applies. If there is a collapse and a further escalation on the Iran front, one can almost guarantee that Israel will re-escalate in Lebanon," said Levy, who is now president of the U.S./Middle East Project, which focuses on solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

A major conflict between Israel has and Hezbollah ignited in early March, with Israel sending troops into south Lebanon to battle the Iran-backed militant group which had launched rocket attacks at Israel following joint Israeli-U.S. strikes on Iran.

A 10-day ceasefire took effect on April 17 and was extended by three weeks on April 23, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the extension shortly after the two sides held their second round of ambassador-level talks in the U.S.

"There are now Israel-Lebanon negotiations taking place, hosted, sponsored, by the U.S. One of the things to look out for is the framework of that negotiation, is the content of that negotiation, designed to achieve a mutually dignified, pragmatic, sustainable deal, or are the Americans and the Israelis trying to push things into that deal equation which reality cannot sustain? So you have a Lebanese government which wants to move forward, but is being pushed into a civil war," he said.

Despite the ceasefire, the violence continues with both sides blaming each other for violations of the truce.

Lebanon's health ministry said Israeli strikes on Tuesday killed eight people, including three rescue workers, in the country's south.

Fragile Israel-Lebanon ceasefire under mounting pressure amid regional tensions: expert

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has withdrawn from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to secure its greater crude oil pricing autonomy and show its dissatisfaction with neighboring Arab states over their failure to condemn Iran's attacks on it, a Chinese expert on the Middle East said.

On Tuesday, the UAE announced it would withdraw from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1. The move removes the bloc's third-largest oil producer and further weakens its influence over global oil supplies and prices.

In an interview with China Central Television (CCTV), Wang Jin, director of the Center for Strategic Studies at Northwest University in China, noted that disagreements over global energy pricing between the UAE and other OPEC members prompted the exit, as the country seeks greater autonomy over its crude oil exports.

"There are divergent views between the UAE and members of the OPEC or the broader OPEC+ alliance regarding international energy pricing. According to Saudi Arabian assessments, a price range of 80 to 90 U.S. dollars per barrel aligns with their national interests. However, the UAE tends to believe that a price of around 50 U.S. dollars per barrel is sufficient to meet its essential economic needs. Consequently, the UAE seeks to exit these mechanisms to gain more leverage over pricing and bolster its autonomy in global oil exports," Wang said.

Beyond economic disputes, Wang noted that the decision also stems from the UAE's dissatisfaction with regional neighbors, who failed to provide sufficient support to the UAE -- the most targeted Gulf nation by Iranian strikes -- during the recent tensions in the Middle East.

"The UAE harbors deep dissatisfaction with current regional policies. After the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, the UAE has, in fact, been the most targeted Gulf nation by Iranian attacks. From the UAE's perspective, neighboring Arab states including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have failed to offer sufficient support for it or issue more vocal condemnations of Iran's actions. This lack of support has fueled the UAE's significant resentment. Furthermore, as Iran itself is a member of both OPEC and OPEC+ alliance, the UAE is inclined to use its withdrawal from these mechanisms to demonstrate dissatisfaction over the regional status quo," he said.

UAE quits OPEC for pricing autonomy amid regional tensions: Chinese expert