Zambia faces a high-stakes clash of diplomacy and public health after the United States tied continued HIV funding to a contested minerals deal, an ultimatum that has raised fears of reversing hard-won progress.
For nearly two decades, US-funded HIV programs under the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) have supported millions of Zambians. But with that agreement expiring, the United States tabled a new deal in November 2025, that includes preferential access to Zambia's critical minerals and health data.
The deal has stalled, with Zambia insisting it seeks agreement but not at any price. The impasse has fueled fears that critical gains could slip away.
"The greatest fear is that we do not want to see ourselves getting back to where we started from. For me my fear is will I be able to continue with my treatment?" said Patricia, a person living with HIV.
Funding cuts are already reshaping frontline programs. In Northern Province, community-led monitoring was forced to halt when stipends for volunteers dried up.
"We were conducting some community led monitoring program in Northern Province. When that donor-cut came, we had to lose these CBVs (community-based volunteers) who were collecting this data because they were on stipends," said Fred Chungu, executive director of the Network of Zambian People Living with HIV and AIDS.
As part of the proposed deal, the United States is seeking preferential access to Zambia's copper, lithium and cobalt, along with the country's health data. Advocacy groups have raised alarm over the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
"Many people are asking what does this America-first approach mean for other countries? Is there room for a middle ground? Because if it's America first, then there's limited room for Zambia first. There were concerns that without the transparency this agreement could be bulldozed and result in an agreement detrimental to the Zambian people," said Josiah Kalala, executive director of Chapter One Foundation, an NGO focusing on promoting and protecting human rights, constitutionalism, social justice, and the rule of law.
The Zambian government has acknowledged the importance of continued health funding but says the proposed conditions are imbalanced and potentially unsustainable. Stakeholders say the crisis should serve as a turning point.
"With the cutting of this donor aid, it's a lesson learnt. Something that is like a wake-up call, so never to depend so much on donors. We have to start local resource mobilization," said Chungu.
Even though the April 30 deadline has passed, the Zambian government said it would continue dialogue, as millions wait anxiously to see whether life-saving treatment will remain within reach.
Zambia faces HIV funding crisis as US links aid to minerals deal
