Nebraska Democrats clash in US House primary for the state's 'blue dot' district

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — The fate of Nebraska's “blue dot” — a small, but significant factor in presidential politics — will take center stage Tuesday as Democratic voters select a congressional nominee in the state's high-profile 2nd District.

The Omaha-area district, where Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon is retiring, is one of the Democratic Party's biggest targets this midterm season. It's also a national focus every four years in presidential contests because Nebraska is one of just two states that splits its electoral votes. The 2nd District has gone to Democratic presidential candidates three out of five times since 2008 — a “blue dot” in an otherwise sea of red.

Three Democrats are seen as the top contenders in Tuesday's primary: state Sen. John Cavanaugh, political activist Denise Powell and district court clerk Crystal Rhoades. Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member endorsed by President Donald Trump, is running unopposed on the GOP side.

Cavanaugh, more than anyone else on Tuesday's ballot, has been under attack from both parties.

Some Democratic opponents argue that a primary victory for Cavanaugh would jeopardize the district's “blue dot” status because he'd be leaving his valuable state legislative seat, making it easier for Republicans in the Nebraska Legislature to change the law that allows the state to split its electoral votes.

The issue has defined the primary contest perhaps more than any other.

The Democratic argument against Cavanaugh has little to do with his politics or policies.

His opponents and groups backing them have flooded mailboxes, airwaves and social media warning that if he wins the congressional primary, Nebraska's Republican governor would appoint a conservative Republican to replace him in the Legislature.

That move, they say, could give state Republicans enough votes to enact a conservative wish list that includes stricter limitations on abortion and transgender rights.

It could also empower Republicans to enact midcycle redistricting or change the state's unusual system of splitting presidential electoral votes, some Democrats argue. Republicans failed in 2024 to pass a bill that would have made Nebraska the 49th state to award its Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis.

“Our Blue Dot. We fought hard for it. But if John Cavanaugh goes to Congress, it could all fall down,” cautions one TV ad by the super PAC New Democrat Majority.

EMILY’s List, a national group that supports women running for office, has put its reach and money behind Powell, calling Cavanaugh’s candidacy “a gift to MAGA Republicans.”

Republican groups have sent out mailers and social media posts claiming Cavanaugh “is in agreement with President Donald Trump” and showing a photo of Cavanaugh overlaid on a photo of the president, making it appear as if the two are standing together.

“Clearly, the Republicans know that I’m the strongest general election candidate,” Cavanaugh said. “And so they’re trying to hurt me.”

The attacks on Cavanaugh show Democrats and Republicans believe he has the best chance of winning the general election, said Paul Landow, a former Nebraska Democratic Party executive director.

He called the “blue dot” attacks disingenuous, noting Republicans already have a filibuster-proof majority in the Legislature but have still failed to pass key elements of their agenda because it is unpopular even among GOP lawmakers. The argument that a Cavanaugh win could weaken the state’s “blue dot” also assumes Democrats won’t pick up additional legislative seats this year, he said.

“There’s so many things that have to fall into place for this alleged danger to the ‘blue dot,’” Landow said. “It’s just wild speculation.”

While all the Democratic contenders cite affordability and opposition to Trump administration policies — from immigration and healthcare to military actions — the top three contenders began attacking one another more aggressively in the days leading up to the primary.

Candidates and allied groups have spent more than $2.6 million on TV and digital advertising since Jan. 1, according to the advertising tracking company AdImpact. Nearly all of that has been by or on behalf of Cavanaugh and Powell.

Cavanaugh has spent about $375,000. Powell's campaign has spent almost as much — $345,000 — but with the help of groups backing her, campaign advertising has been overwhelmingly pro-Powell.

Powell co-founded Women Who Run Nebraska, a political action committee that supports progressive female candidates, and she has a decade of Democratic political activism. She's never held office but said her deep connections have helped her with independents and third-party voters who make up nearly 30% of the district's electorate.

“My name recognition has increased dramatically,” Powell said, adding that "people are really connecting with my message.”

Rhoades carries her own name recognition after 20 years in public service and running a slew of successful local Democratic elections — including that of Omaha Mayor John Ewing, who unseated a longtime Republican last year. Rhoades has raised a fraction of what Cavanaugh and Powell have amassed, but said she's intentionally eschewing campaign ads and instead blanketing the city with door-knocking and personal contact with voters.

Both Powell and Rhoades have leaned heavily into the concern that Democrats' influence in the district will erode if Cavanaugh is elected to Congress.

The winner of Tuesday's primary will head to a highly competitive general election. Trump won the district in 2016, and the retiring Bacon, who has clashed with Trump, has held the House seat for five terms.

Also on Tuesday's ballot is the race for U.S. Senate, where Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts is seeking a full term, following his 2023 appointment and 2024 special election victory to replace Republican Ben Sasse.

Ricketts faces four Republican primary challengers, but he’s already looking ahead to an expected general election contest against independent candidate Dan Osborn, an industrial mechanic and military veteran who came within 7 points of defeating Republican U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer in her 2024 reelection bid. Running in the Democratic primary are William Forbes and Cindy Burbank.

In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Pillen faces five primary challengers, while former state Sen. Lynne Walz and frequent candidate Larry Marvin compete for the Democratic nomination. Marvin previously ran for U.S. Senate four times since 2012.

Peoples reported from New York.

District county clerk Crystal Rhoades speaks at a fundraising event Thursday, April 16, 2026, in Omaha, Neb. (AP Photo/Margery A. Beck)

Political activist Denise Powell speaks at a fundraising event Thursday, April 16, 2026, in Omaha, Neb. (AP Photo/Margery A. Beck)

State Sen. John Cavanaugh speaks at an office in Lincoln, Neb., Friday, April 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Margery A. Beck)

Missouri's top court is hearing an important legal challenge Tuesday to one of President Donald Trump's earliest redistricting successes while lawmakers in Louisiana and South Carolina weigh whether to become the most recent Republican states to redraw U.S. House districts ahead of the midterm elections.

Rather than waning, a national redistricting battle that began 10 months ago has intensified as the November elections draw nearer — inflamed by a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that weakened the federal Voting Rights Act and provided grounds for states to try to eliminate voting districts with large minority populations.

Missouri was the second Republican state after Texas to heed Trump's call last year to redraw congressional districts to help the GOP win additional seats in the midterms. At issue before the Missouri Supreme Court is whether the new districts violate a state constitutional requirement to be compact, and whether they can remain in place for this year's elections despite an initiative petition seeking to force a public referendum.

In South Carolina, the issue facing Republican lawmakers is whether redrawing the state's lone Democratic-held seat could open the door to a clean sweep for Republicans or backfire with additional losses by making more districts competitive for Democrats. State senators must decide whether to allow consideration of a redistricting plan put forth in the House after the legislature's regular work ends Thursday.

Congressional redistricting also is under consideration in Louisiana, where the Supreme Court's recent ruling invalidated a majority-Black district as an illegal racial gerrymander. The state's May 16 congressional primaries already have been postponed. What remains undecided is how many seats Republicans will try to pick up while redrawing the districts.

Alabama also is poised to switch its congressional districts for this year's elections, after the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday overturned an order for it to use a map with two largely Black districts.

Republicans think they could gain as many as 14 seats from new House maps enacted so far in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Tennessee. Democrats, meanwhile, think they could gain six seats from new maps in California and Utah. The Virginia Supreme Court last week struck down a redistricting effort that could have yielded four more winnable seats for Democrats.

A South Carolina House committee is to consider Tuesday whether to send a congressional redistricting plan to the full chamber for debate. The House also appears poised to pass legislation that could delay the June 9 congressional primaries until August to allow time for new districts to be enacted. That comes even as some absentee and overseas military ballots already have been cast.

But any redistricting effort also must clear the Senate, where support is less certain. Two-thirds of senators have to agree before the regular General Assembly session ends Thursday to let the legislature take up redistricting later.

Trump said on social media Monday that he was closely watching the redistricting vote, urging South Carolina senators to “be bold and courageous" and to delay the House primaries so new districts can be drawn.

Although Republicans have a supermajority in the chamber, several senators aren’t sure the proposed map guarantees the GOP will win seat held by long-serving Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn. And they think enough Democratic voters could be pushed into other districts that the plan could backfire, resulting in a 5-2 or even a 4-3 Republican split.

Some also question whether it is fair for Republicans to get all the seats in a state where the Democratic presidential candidate has gotten at least 40% of the vote every election this century, even if Trump is asking for the new map.

State Sen. Caleb Kleinpeter, a Republican who oversees the Louisiana Senate committee tasked with redistricting, said his panel plans to vote Tuesday on a U.S. House map, with a full Senate vote expected Thursday.

The committee has several options, including versions that would leave Democrats favored in only one district or none. Kleinpeter said a map eliminating all majority-Black districts would be difficult to hold up in court.

Last Friday, dozens of people urged lawmakers to retain two majority-Black districts during a grueling nine-hour hearing that featured civil rights activists and the only four Black congressmen elected to represent the state since the end of the Reconstruction era.

Missouri currently is represented in the U.S. House by six Republicans and two Democrats under a map passed by the Republican-led legislature after the 2020 census. But with Trump's backing, Republican state officials adopted a new map last September that improves their chances of winning an additional seat by targeting a Kansas City district held by longtime Democratic U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, who previously was the city's first Black mayor.

The new House map places portions of Kansas City in neighboring Republican districts and stretches the remainder of Cleaver's 5th District far eastward into Republican-heavy rural areas. A state judge in March rejected an assertion that the map violates a constitutional compactness requirement, finding that the new districts on average are more compact — even if the 5th District is not. That was appealed to the state Supreme Court.

A separate case also being argued Tuesday at the state Supreme Court contends the new districts should have been automatically suspended in December when opponents submitted more than 300,000 petition signatures seeking to force a statewide referendum.

But Republican Attorney General Catherine Hanaway and Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins contend the new districts can be suspended only if — and after — Hoskins determines the petition meets constitutional requirements and has enough valid signatures. Hoskins has until Aug. 4, the day of Missouri's primary elections, to make that determination.

A state judge in March agreed with the Republicans' position while also ruling that the plaintiffs lacked grounds to sue and had done so too soon.

Brook reported from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Collins from Columbia, South Carolina, and Lieb from Jefferson City, Missouri.

The Missouri Capitol is seen Monday, Feb. 9, 2026, in Jefferson City, Mo. (AP Photo/David A. Lieb)

Republican South Carolina Rep. Jackie Terribile looks at a proposed map of new U.S. House districts for South Carolina on Thursday, May 7, 2026, in Columbia, S.C. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Collins)