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What to watch in Tuesday's primaries as Democrats try to defend California and make inroads in Iowa

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What to watch in Tuesday's primaries as Democrats try to defend California and make inroads in Iowa
News

News

What to watch in Tuesday's primaries as Democrats try to defend California and make inroads in Iowa

2026-06-02 12:01 Last Updated At:12:11

WASHINGTON (AP) — For a state that's home to Hollywood, there isn't much star power in California's governor race. It's a somewhat different story in Los Angeles, where a reality television personality is running for mayor as the city prepares to host the Olympics.

More primaries are being held on Tuesday as well. Democrats are banking on a rare chance to regain ground in Iowa, a rural state that has repeatedly eluded them in recent years. Republicans, meanwhile, are grappling with a New Jersey congressman whose unexplained absence could put their already slim majority at risk.

Here are some things to watch as voters in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota cast ballots.

Ronald Reagan. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Jerry Brown. Gavin Newsom.

The governor's office in California typically attracts some of the highest-wattage names in politics, but not this year.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla took a pass on the race. And with Newsom barred from seeking a third term, the campaign to succeed him turned into a sprawling, often messy contest.

In the final stretch, much of the attention has focused on Democrats Xavier Becerra, the former congressman and state attorney general who was also health secretary under President Joe Biden, and Tom Steyer, a billionaire known for his climate activism. Republican Steve Hilton is campaigning with President Donald Trump's endorsement.

Under California's primary system, all candidates appear on a single ballot and the top two finishers advance to the November general election, regardless of party. The absence of a front-runner incentivized virtually anyone with political ambition and a modicum of organization to join the race, leaving Democrats worried that their candidates would divide the vote and ultimately be shut out of the fall campaign. But those fears have eased in the primary's closing weeks, with the party now expecting to secure at least one slot on the November ballot.

The results could offer insight about how voters are feeling in a state where Democrats have dominated statewide elections for two decades.

In a city still recovering from the most destructive wildfire in its history, Mayor Karen Bass is in a tough fight for reelection.

The mayor, who is a frequent target of Trump's criticism, was in Ghana as part of a presidential delegation when the blaze began. She has acknowledged mistakes but has centered her campaign around a message of recovery and progress.

Bass is facing a spirited challenge from reality television personality Spencer Pratt, who has blamed Bass for presiding over destruction that claimed his own home. Pratt, who rose to fame on “The Hills,” has shared videos created by artificial intelligence that show him taking on a superhero persona to battle street criminals and Democratic politicians.

The race is officially nonpartisan, but Bass is a Democrat, as is progressive city council member Nithya Raman, who made a last-minute decision to challenge her one-time ally. Pratt is a registered Republican who has received a nod of approval — if not an outright endorsement — from Trump.

Unless a candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary, the top two will advance to a general election in November.

Los Angeles hasn't elected a Republican mayor since Richard Riordan won his second term in 1997, and the results will be closely watched for signs of dissatisfaction with liberal urban governance. The winner will emerge as a national and global figure as the city prepares to host the Olympics in 2028.

Iowa wasn't always a Republican stronghold.

Before Trump reshaped American politics, this was the state the lifted the political career of Barack Obama and sent Tom Harkin to the Senate for five terms.

The party is particularly excited about Rob Sand, who is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination for governor. A native of Decorah, Iowa, he has the rural roots that have become rare among Democrats. Perhaps most importantly, he's a proven winner in a Republican-leaning state, having been elected twice as auditor.

Republicans head into the primary with five candidates. Trump jumped in last week to endorse Rep. Randy Feenstra.

This is the first open contest for the governor's seat since 2006. Democrats are hoping that a combination of the economic fallout from Trump's tariff policies, rising gas prices stemming from the Iran war and the lack of a Republican incumbent could give them their best opportunity in years. Sand also has a fundraising advantage over the Republicans, including Feenstra.

State Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls are competing in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by incumbent Republican Joni Ernst. The race has divided in part along questions of who should lead the party in Washington, with Wahls openly criticizing Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer. Republicans have largely coalesced behind U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson as their candidate for the Senate seat.

In the final frenzied days before an election, voters can sometimes grow tired of hearing from candidates so much. But in New Jersey's 7th congressional district, they're not hearing from one candidate at all.

Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is running unopposed in Tuesday's primary. But he's facing growing scrutiny for an unexplained medical absence that has stretched for three months, causing him to miss more than 100 votes in Congress.

That's not an ideal statistic for any lawmaker, but it's especially problematic for someone running in one of the few genuinely competitive congressional districts. While gerrymandering has yielded most U.S. House seats reliably Democratic or Republican, Kean's district has flipped between the parties in each of the last two midterm elections. Republican Leonard Lance lost to Democrat Tom Malinowski in 2018. Malinowski lost to Kean in 2022.

As they cling to a narrow majority in the House, Republicans can't afford to lose a district like Kean's. Several Democrats vying to take on Kean in the fall have made his absence — and the lack of clarity surrounding it — a central part of their message.

New Jersey was one of the first places that voter pushback to Trump became apparent last year when Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the governor's race by more than 14 percentage points. The turnout in the 7th district on Tuesday could provide clues about whether that Democratic enthusiasm remains in place.

Democrats are hopeful they can mount a serious challenge against Republican Senate candidates in deep-red South Dakota and Montana this fall. But their best hope may not be the Democrats featured on Tuesday’s primary ballot.

Both states feature higher-profile independent candidates, who, because they’re not running to represent a political party, do not have to compete in primary elections.

In Montana, there are five Democrats competing for the party’s Senate nomination. But independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, has raised more money than all of them combined. He’s even significantly out-raised Trump-backed Republican candidate Kurt Alme.

In South Dakota, three-term incumbent Republican Mike Rounds is expected to cruise to his party’s nomination on Tuesday. He’ll face Democrat Julian Beaudion, a former highway patrol trooper and small business owner, on the November ballot. But it’s a former Democrat now running as an independent, Brian Bengs, a military veteran, who may be the tougher challenger.

California Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton speaks during a campaign event on Sunday, May 31, 2026, in Santa Monica, Calif. (AP Photo/Benjamin Hanson)

California Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton speaks during a campaign event on Sunday, May 31, 2026, in Santa Monica, Calif. (AP Photo/Benjamin Hanson)

California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra shakes hands with supporters during a campaign event in West Hollywood, Calif., Thursday, May 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra shakes hands with supporters during a campaign event in West Hollywood, Calif., Thursday, May 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Iowa Democrats on Tuesday will settle one of the party's last competitive U.S. Senate primaries, choosing between two state lawmakers who each say he is better poised to flip a retiring Republican’s seat.

Either Josh Turek or Zach Wahls will go up against a full-throttled Republican defense of two-term Sen. Joni Ernst’s seat, which the GOP considers pivotal to keeping its Senate majority. It’s one of many competitive races in Iowa attracting national interest, including from the White House. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have both touched down in the state this year to shore up Republican enthusiasm.

U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson is seeking the GOP nomination and has the backing of Trump and Ernst. She is running against former state Sen. Jim Carlin.

Democrats feel hopeful that high prices, lost manufacturing jobs, shuttered healthcare facilities and a struggling agricultural economy will help the party dismantle the all-GOP federal delegation and Republican statehouse trifecta. Leading the ticket is State Auditor Rob Sand, the candidate for governor and the lone Democrat currently holding statewide office. Unopposed in his primary and absent a clear Republican opponent, Sand has had a long runway to hone his moderate message, remind voters of his rural upbringing and amass an $18 million campaign fund.

Republicans, meanwhile, must close the door on a five-way primary Tuesday for the nominee to replace outgoing Gov. Kim Reynolds.

As Democrats look to reclaim Senate control, Iowa is one of the last states on the map where candidates are still fighting to be the party's nominee. The GOP Senate campaign arm has committed $29 million to help the party's nominee.

The Democratic Party’s ongoing debate over the party's direction and strategy to win back disaffected voters is playing out in Iowa, albeit with different dynamics than it did in Maine or Texas.

Turek and Wahls are aligned on many Democratic positions, including a public health insurance option, higher minimum wage and more labor bargaining rights. They both talk about corruption in politics benefiting corporate interests and hurting working-class people.

But they campaigned on different visions for how to win statewide in November — and attracted distinct lines of attack from their Republican opponents.

Turek is a relative newcomer to elected office. He played professional wheelchair basketball in Europe, and he competed for the U.S. in four Paralympics, including as recently as 2021. He won his state House seat in 2022.

Wahls rose to national fame in 2011 as a 19-year-old who defended his two moms to lawmakers considering a resolution against same-sex marriage. He addressed the Democratic National Convention the following year. He won his first state Senate term in 2018 and was Senate Democrats’ leader for nearly three years.

Wahls said at the time that his “vision for change” was what led his Senate colleagues to oust him as minority leader. He emphasized in a debate last month that “we desperately need a new vision for small town and rural Iowa” and said his message is resonating with working-class voters frustrated with both parties.

Wahls' opposition to U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer as party leader has been a defining tenet of his campaign. He has criticized a coastal playbook that doesn’t work in Iowa.

Turek referred to himself as an underdog when he launched last August, but a flood of outside support has boosted him in the final stretch. Democratic political operation VoteVets has spent $10 million to blanket the airwaves, social media and mailboxes in support of Turek. Political organizations affiliated with Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, who chairs the Democratic Senate campaign arm, have both recently contributed to Turek's campaign committee.

Responding to Wahls’ criticism of the cash, Turek has said he’s not a “D.C. insider.” He has argued his success in a Trump-won district can translate statewide.

Five Republicans are in the primary to replace Reynolds, who opted out of a third bid. The nominee will face a well-funded Sand.

The candidates are U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, state Rep. Eddie Andrews, businessman and former conservative political director Zach Lahn, former state Rep. Brad Sherman and former director of the state Department of Administrative Services Adam Steen.

Trump endorsed Feenstra on Friday, saying on social media that “Randy is MAGA all the way!"

If no candidate earns at least 35% of Republican primary voters, the nominee would be selected at a contested state party convention scheduled for June 13.

Iowa Republicans have not had a competitive primary for governor since former Gov. Terry Branstad won the nomination in 2010. Reynolds became governor in 2017 when Branstad was appointed U.S. ambassador to China.

While Republicans celebrate years of progress under Reynolds, the primary has unearthed sticking points over economic development, tax policy and property rights, as well as the relationship between the state’s water quality, farm conservation practices and rising cancer rates.

Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, endorsed by Trump, again faces a 1st District challenge from businessman David Pautsch, who earned 44% of votes against the incumbent congresswoman in the 2024 primary. Three-time Democratic candidate Christina Bohannan, who came about 800 votes shy of unseating Miller-Meeks in the last election, has the Democratic congressional committee's support but must first fend off her primary opponent, first-time candidate Travis Terrell.

In northeastern Iowa, former state Rep. Joe Mitchell, endorsed by Trump, and state Sen. Charlie McClintock are Republicans seeking Hinson’s open 2nd District seat. Three Democrats want the nomination: state Rep. Lindsay James, former nonprofit leader Clint Twedt-Ball and Kathy Dolter, a former dean of nursing at an Iowa community college.

Republican incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott are both unopposed on the primary ballot in the competitive 3rd Congressional District.

Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, talks with Dave, left, and Lynnae Lathrop while canvassing, Sunday, May 31, 2026, in Waukee, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, talks with Dave, left, and Lynnae Lathrop while canvassing, Sunday, May 31, 2026, in Waukee, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks to supporters before a canvassing event, Sunday, May 31, 2026, in Waukee, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks to supporters before a canvassing event, Sunday, May 31, 2026, in Waukee, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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