Indonesia's B50 biodiesel program, which mandates a 50 percent blend of palm oil-based biofuel with fossil diesel, will help reduce dependence on imported fuel but may also exacerbate palm oil supply shortages and drive up domestic cooking oil prices, according to an Indonesian economic expert.
As the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil, Indonesia relies on it as both a key food ingredient and a core feedstock for biodiesel.
The B50 program, which will take effect on July 1, is expected to reduce fuel imports, increase domestic value-added production from palm oil, create jobs, and lower greenhouse gas emissions, supporting Indonesia's broader push toward energy independence and renewable energy adoption.
At the beginning of 2025, Indonesia implemented the B40 program, raising the biodiesel blend ratio in diesel fuel to 40 percent. Dipo Satria Ramli, a researcher at the Center for Economic Reform Indonesia, said he believes that with such a sharp increase in the blend ratio after just over a year, the market may not yet be ready.
"Transition from B40 to B50 is definitely driven by the high oil price, right? That additional 10 percent is actually a high number. And I think that's something that the market is not ready yet. There's not an additional production ready yet for domestic consumption, right? And because of that, obviously the price has increased locally on the cooking oil and some of the other products as well," Ramli said.
Industry expects the B50 program to further increase Indonesia's annual demand for palm oil used in biodiesel production. At the same time, with the country currently in a seasonal low-production period, market concerns over future supply tightness are rising.
"But the palm oil has its own risk rate. For example, it has its weather risk, the El Nino this year, it has productivity risks and so many other different kinds of risks," Ramli said.
The expert noted that if global oil prices stay high and palm oil output growth remains limited, food processors and the catering industry could face rising cost pressures, some of which will eventually be passed on to consumers. He added that balancing energy security with food prices will be a key challenge to Indonesia's policy makers going forward.
Indonesia's B50 biodiesel lowers fuel imports but raises cooking oil prices: expert
