El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Friday.
The WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates that El Nino is expected to develop rapidly into a strong event during the July-September 2026 period.
Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centers point to consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal average sea-surface temperatures expected to exceed 2 degrees Celsius above the long-term average in key monitoring regions.
"The impacts of El Nino will be felt in different regions until the end of the year and beyond, also during 2027. And this is an important thing to have in mind, this impact in terms of the shifting rainfall patterns. But El Nino will also give an extra boost to global temperatures. We know that during El Nino years, the global temperatures normally reach record levels," said Alvaro Silva, a scientist with the WMO.
Forecast models show remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook. El Nino is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is forecast to remain generally warmer than average.
In terms of temperature, the latest update predicts a high likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60 degrees South and 60 degrees North, covering nearly all densely populated regions outside the polar areas.
For precipitation, the July-September 2026 outlook reflects a pattern consistent with a strengthening El Nino. Above-normal rainfall is more likely over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while below-normal rainfall is expected over parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.
According to the WMO, El Nino events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and 12 months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures in the year following their onset.
The WMO said it is stepping up efforts to mobilize information and support services to help countries anticipate and mitigate the impacts of El Nino.
Extreme weather more likely in the coming months: WMO
