Increasing violence in Brazil's Bahia state challenges Lula in his election stronghold

SALVADOR, Brazil (AP) — On the day they were going to kill him, Evilásio Santos da Silveira Júnior, 33, told his sister he was going grocery shopping in the city of Salvador in northern Brazil where the line between the crossfire of rival drug gangs and police lethality has been increasingly blurred. But he never came back home.

His death and the questions surrounding it encapsulate a major hurdle for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to beat Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro in October’s national elections.

The rising violence and critiques of government response could impact Lula in his stronghold state, where he won 72% of votes in the 2022 runoff against then incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

The 80-year-old president needs to maintain a strong lead with the 11 million baianos, as the state's residents are called, to beat his predecessor’s son, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro. The former trade unionist is polling below his results four years ago in Bahia, and public security is pointed to as the key reason.

Yet the president’s campaign trusts the appeal of his flagship social programs with baianos so he can once again win big.

Born and raised in the colorful capital of Bahia, Júnior died after bleeding for hours in an abandoned favela house with a shot through his brachial artery, close to the armpit.

Bahia state police officers at the scene said he was caught in a shootout between rival factions and suspect him of involvement. His family said he had no ties to gangs and was instead randomly killed by state forces during an unprovoked surprise raid.

“My confidence today is only in God, in my prayers … I can’t say I feel protected (by police). I am sorry to say that many times, at the end of the day, they are the criminals,” said Magnólia Nascimento, Júnior’s sister, who said she hopes the next president improves public safety and stops gangs from spreading, as Lula and Sen. Bolsonaro have promised to do.

Both police officers interviewed by The Associated Press and Júnior’s family agree that their state of Bahia has never been as violent, with five out of the country’s 10 most deadly cities there, according to nonprofit group Brazilian Public Security Forum. Salvador is the nation’s deadliest state capital, with nearly 53 violent deaths for every 100,000 residents, according to the most recent data from 2024.

Some voters blame national crime gangs migrating to Bahia. Others point to Lula’s Workers’ Party, which has governed the state — and thus local police — since 2006. They say they have failed to make police less lethal or stop the flow of drugs and weapons and have not invested enough in education.

Lula has tried to beef up his security credentials with the promise to create a public security ministry and dedicate more federal resources to fighting violence should he be reelected.

Sen. Bolsonaro has campaigned on a tough-on-crime stance, including the construction of massive prisons nationwide inspired by the model of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, although he hasn't directly addressed violence in Bahia.

When asked about his stronghold’s violence crisis in a news interview on Aug. 31, one day after Júnior was killed, Lula replied: “Don’t be unfair to Bahia.”

“No governor has solved the public security situation,” Lula added.

Baianos witness tragedies like Júnior’s daily through popular news programs that are friendly to local police and show bloody crime scenes, arrests and shooting footage. Hosts and reporters often mock human rights activists, who are portrayed as lenient on crime. One is famous for playing a harmonica to celebrate police killings.

The Rio de Janeiro-based Red Command dominates Bahia’s poorest areas with “CV” graffiti for its initials in Portuguese, facing off against its main rival, Bando de Malucos, a local gang tied to Brazil’s largest syndicate, the First Command of the Capital (PCC).

The Trump administration designated these groups as terrorist organizations earlier this year — a move Lula criticized as election interference meant to boost Sen. Bolsonaro. Analysts note these gangs spent the last decade expanding into Bahia to tap into lucrative drug-exporting markets in Europe and Asia as Brazil developed more ports and airports.

“Every state that becomes a strategic trading post for traffic is torn by organized crime. So you see these states with rising violence numbers,” said Maria Isabel Couto, a data and transparency director at Fogo Cruzado, a nonprofit that monitors violence in Brazil.

“It doesn’t mean those are violent states; they are hit by those groups and also by the police’s reaction in many cases.”

Lula or his allies have won every election in the state since 2002.

In 2022, Lula drew over 6 million votes in Bahia compared to Jair Bolsonaro’s 2.3 million, a victory fueled by the memory of his social programs. That result proved vital to his narrow 2.1-million-vote national victory.

Since then, Lula has expanded welfare in Bahia, including his flagship Bolsa Família program, growing benefits from 58 billion reais ($11.3 billion) under Bolsonaro in 2022 to 87.2 billion reais ($17 billion) last year, government figures show. This week he increased benefits under the initiative by 15% in a move some critics said aims to boost his popularity before elections.

Yet rising crime has created political tension.

Physical education teacher Tiali Doria, a staunch Lula supporter, notes that poorer voters now expect clear strategies on public safety, particularly to address police violence.

“In poorer regions, police put you against the wall, don’t say good evening, don’t ask who you are and treat you like a suspect,” Doria said after a Lula rally downtown, not far from drug trafficking hot spots.

Sen. Bolsonaro, however, has barely campaigned in the city. Rather than him winning over Lula's voters, turnout may be key. Some baianos need good reasons to leave home for the first round Oct. 4 — and possibly a runoff Oct. 25 — to vote for the president again.

“I voted for Lula the last time, but I am not convinced now,” said Jane Souza, the owner of a food stall in Salvador’s historic city center, citing both violence and the economy.

“But I think Flávio Bolsonaro just wants to take his father out of jail.”

Still, many Lula supporters refuse to associate the increase in violence with the veteran leader. One of them is Júnior’s sister.

Nascimento, who receives Bolsa Familia payments of about $116 per month, took a government-sponsored course to become a nurse. She is finally getting her driver’s license through another government initiative.

“I am using the resources of my government so I can pick myself up,” Nascimento said. “I vote for Lula because I vote for Lula.”

Police search motorists during a security operation in the Lobato neighborhood on the outskirts of Salvador, Bahia state, Brazil, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

A person displays a banner of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for reelection, during a campaign rally in Salvador, Bahia state, Brazil, Friday, Aug. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

Supporters of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for reelection, hold signs asking him for improvements in health care and other public services during a campaign rally in Salvador, Bahia state, Brazil, Friday, Aug. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

A low-income residential community, left, stands in contrast to high-rise residential buildings with an elevated metro line cutting through the urban landscape in Salvador, Bahia state, Brazil, Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

Forensic workers carry the body of a person killed during clashes between rival criminal gangs as the victim's relatives follow in the Jardim Esperanca neighborhood on the outskirts of Salvador, Bahia state, Brazil, Friday, Aug. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union and the Philippines have reached substantial agreement on a new free trade deal, the latest bilateral agreement that Brussels is pursuing as it seeks to diversify its economy amid tensions with traditional trading partners including China, Russia and the United States.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted Tuesday, ″we just agreed on a free trade deal,″ but EU officials later clarified that it was a preliminary agreement, and that a full deal would take further negotiations.

The EU's top trade negotiator, Maroš Šefčovič, said he and Philippine Trade Secretary María Cristina Aldeguer-Roque have been negotiating a deal aimed at boosting the nearly 30 billion euros (around $35 billion) of annual trade between the 27-nation EU and the Southeast Asian nation of 115 million people.

Šefčovič said it would create “a modern, forward-looking partnership between the EU and the Philippines, one that will open new opportunities for our exporters and investors, strengthen our supply chains and deepen bilateral economic ties for years to come.”

He said he expects it to be finalized within a year or two. Parliaments on both sides will also need to ratify it.

EU-Philippine trade is dominated by electronics, with the EU exporting aircraft, pork and pharmaceuticals while importing semiconductors, integrated circuits and industrial machinery made in the Philippines.

The EU has sought growth and stability through new trade links from Australia to Argentina as the bloc itself is beset by a geopolitical maelstrom, including conflicts in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine that have throttled traditional sources of energy.

The Philippines has already reached deals with two other ASEAN members, Vietnam and Singapore. The European Commission is also negotiating separate deals with Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, while a broader free trade agreement between the EU and ASEAN remains a long-term goal.

Moscow, Beijing and Washington all pose their own kind of challenges to the EU: hybrid attacks that officials across the EU blame on Russia; China's gargantuan trade imbalance and a near-monopoly over critical mineral supplies; and a Trump administration critical of European policies on defense, migration, and technology regulation.

The EU deal with the Philippines roughly tracks with the “ middle powers ” strategy laid out at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, earlier this year by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Last week, he was the guest of honor in the European Parliament in Strasbourg at the annual State of the European Union speech by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

She said then that the EU would forge a new kind of “ associate membership ” for Canada.

“In this new world, we must urgently reimagine our partnerships,” von der Leyen said during her speech.

And at the same time, nations around the world have sought out the EU to weather “sudden changes very often on the fundamental principles of how trade is being done,” said Šefčovič, the trade negotiator.

“My phone was ringing all the time,” he said. “When the world goes in such turbulence and turmoil, you work closely with your friends and close partners."

FILE - European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the annual State of the European Union at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, Wednesday, Sept 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Pascal Bastien, File)