By 2031, Hong Kong will be a different city. According to the Chief Executive’s 2026 Policy Address and Hong Kong’s first Five-Year Plan, the next five years will see the Northern Metropolis move from plans to reality, with doubled innovation investment, a strong push to improve substandard housing, and a smarter, greener urban environment. For ordinary residents, the plan isn’t just a government document; it’s a roadmap for how daily life could improve.
Hong Kong does not start from zero. It begins from a position of genuine strength in finance, aviation, trade, shipping, innovation, technology, and culture and arts. The five-year plan’s framing concept is to build on these foundations that are already world-class, with explicit ambitions to be among the Global Elite.
The most noticeable change will be in the Northern Metropolis. Bordering Shenzhen, this large area is designed to become a hub of innovation and technology. By 2031, the first residents and tech companies are expected to move in. The plan aims to build 70,000 new housing units there—a six fold increase from before. Three university towns in San Tin, Hung Shui Kiu, and Ta Kwu Ling will connect education, research, and industry. A smart, green mass transit system in Hung Shui Kiu will begin operation and test autonomous driving. At the same time, Kwu Tung Station on the East Rail Line and Hung Shui Kiu Station on the Tuen Ma Line will improve connectivity.
The economy will also change. The government plans to nearly double innovation spending to 3% of GDP, up from 1.63% in 2024. Focus areas include artificial intelligence, health technology, new energy, and advanced manufacturing. The aim is to create more high-quality, high-income jobs, supported by policies to attract more global companies. In housing, the waiting time for public rental housing is expected to drop below four years by 2030-31, and the government aims to eliminate substandard cubicle apartments by 2030. In healthcare, the First Hospital Development Plan will increase public hospital beds to around 35,000 and operating theatres to about 360. At the same time, the doctor-to-population ratio will rise from 2.25 to 2.43 per 1,000 people. Universities will become more international, with a target of 100,000 full-time non-local post-secondary students by 2029/30, up from 79,000. An “AI City Brain” is under study to connect departmental data for smarter city management.
That is the vision. But how accountable is it? The plan includes 22 key indicators, divided into five binding targets and 17 anticipatory goals. The binding targets include: 900 hectares of “spade-ready” land in the Northern Metropolis over five years; a 32.5% cumulative reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 compared to 2024; zero-carbon energy increasing to 30% of electricity generation; PM2.5 levels dropping below 14 micrograms per cubic metre; and surface water quality exceeding 90% compliance.
Four of the five binding indicators are environmental, with one related to land supply. They were selected because government action is the main factor. As the CE explained, binding indicators involve fewer external variables outside government control. Anticipatory goals—such as GDP growth, market access, and universities—are heavily influenced by the geopolitical situation and the global market; it is prudent not to set aspirational or stretch targets. It is necessary to note that all targets, whether binding or anticipatory, carry reporting obligations. The CE must report progress annually to the Central Government during official visits, compare performance, and suggest improvements. This is where the CE and the government are held accountable, alongside Legco’s checks and balances.
As a first Five-Year Plan, areas for improvement are expected—first, livelihood indicators require more specific, measurable sub-targets. Phrases like “maintaining a global leading position” or an “upward trend” in health expenditure are understandable but difficult to monitor. Second, the mid-term review mechanism needs stronger authority. The plan mentions dynamic monitoring and mid-term evaluation, but it remains unclear who will conduct these and what actions will be taken if targets are missed. A strategic adjustment mechanism with semi-annual reviews chaired by the CE would be beneficial. Third, each Policy Address should include a dedicated chapter reporting on Five-Year Plan KPIs, linking annual governance to the multi-year strategy. Fourth, the government must translate the 105 indicators into plain language for the general public: what does this mean for families, jobs, neighbourhoods?
To advance, the government should publish annual progress reports on all 22 major indicators, not just the binding ones. A public dashboard tracking the 105 indicators would transform the plan into a living document. The mid-term review at two and a half years should be presented to the Legislative Council and the public. The 2027 leadership transition offers an opportunity to embed the plan into the next administration’s governance framework, ensuring continuity beyond a single term.
By 2031, Hong Kong could be a city where economic growth enhances quality of life: more jobs, affordable housing, better healthcare, and a healthier, greener environment. But a plan is not a guarantee; it is a starting point. The first Five-Year Plan marks a learning curve for Hong Kong, shifting from annual, reactive policymaking to a multi-year strategy. Its success hinges on government implementation and public participation. If both sides work together, 2031 will be more than a date in a document; it will be the year residents feel the positive difference in their daily lives.
SD Advocates
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