El Niño's storm-killer winds and climate's warming waters in fight over future of Hurricane Isaias

A supersized El Niño’s decapitating winds and the Gulf of Mexico’s toasty, storm-fueling waters are battling over the future strength of Hurricane Isaias. And the storm’s tilt and eye show who’s winning.

All Atlantic hurricane season there has been “this battle between shear and just the overall conducive conditions,” said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

El Niño — the natural temporary warming of parts of the Pacific that warps weather worldwide — dominated. Its wind patterns smothered almost any wisp of a storm from strengthening in the Atlantic, while boosting what will soon be record high levels in the Pacific, Klotzbach said.

It's called wind shear and it pushes the tops and middle of storms around, making them lopsided and keeping them from making a complete circular eyewall, which is when storms can really power up, Klotzbach and University at Albany's Kristen Corbosiero said.

The other ingredients for a storm to turbocharge a storm are pushing back. There is plenty of fuel in warm water and moisture. The Gulf of Mexico is about 2.7 degrees (1.5 degrees Celsius) warmer than normal. The 86 degree waters (30 degrees Celsius) are 100 to 500 times more likely to be that extra hot because of climate change from the burning of coal, oil and gas, said climate scientist Kristina Dahl, vice president of the nonprofit Climate Central, which calculates the boost global warming causes to extreme weather.

“But there’s a certain point where it’s like, I don’t care how hot the waters are and how much moisture you have, if shear gets to a certain point, the shear is gonna win,” Klotzbach said.

The thunderstorm seeds of something bigger earlier in the week grew from circular winds over Central America but often were lopsided and couldn’t quite form a crucial eyewall, all because of El Niño’s high-level strong winds that pushed a would-be storm's top sideways, experts said.

Then a window of moderation opened for just a couple of days, but it was enough, Corbosiero said. It makes sense it was in the Gulf of Mexico and in October, because El Niño has less of an effect in the Gulf than it does in the main Atlantic, she said. And storms often pop up in that region in October because of more northerly storm systems that help foster the right conditions.

Wind shear wasn’t exactly low, but it was a moderate level, when other factors like unusually warm waters and heavy moisture can kick in. Isaias rapidly intensified from 40 mph to 80 mph (64 kph to 129 kph) in a day and by late Wednesday, Isaias became the latest-in-the-season first Atlantic hurricane to form since 1914, Klotzbach said.

“The warm waters and high moisture won,” Klotzbach said. Isaias is likely losing its tilt and straightening and flying right and strong.

For a few hours, the storm is forecast on Friday to flirt with 111 mph (178 kph) winds that could possibly give it major hurricane status, according to Klotzbach and the National Hurricane Center's forecast. But it'll likely be temporary.

Before Isaias comes ashore — forecast for probably somewhere from the Mississippi and Alabama coast to the Florida Panhandle late Friday night or early Saturday — the wind shear will strengthen from moderate levels of around 20 mph (32 kph) to 52 mph (84 kph) and then Isaias will start to struggle, which is good news for coastal residents, Klotzbach said.

It will probably come ashore as a strong Category 1 or weak Category 2 storm, but not a major storm, Klotzbach said. It can still do plenty of damage.

“Once it gets to the coast, we know that the storm surge is going to be deeper and farther reaching because of sea level rise caused by climate change,” Dahl said. “So in this part of the world, there’s been about six and a half inches of sea level rise over the past 100 years or so that’s attributable directly to climate change.”

The National Hurricane Center is calling the surge “life-threatening.”

A warmer atmosphere means storms hold and then dump more rain, worsening flooding, Dahl said. The hurricane center is warning about urban, river and flash flooding in the Southeast this weekend.

“There’s a little bit of a battle here going on, but I think the really important thing to remember is that climate change is like this long-term big kahuna warming everywhere, and El Niño’s like a little icing on the cake,” Dahl said.

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Residents fill up their gas tanks and generators at the Costco Wholesale Gas Station ahead of Hurricane Isaias' expected landfall along the Gulf Coast, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, in Mobile, Ala. (AP Photo/Octavio Jones)

Residents pick up sandbags for storm preparation at the James Seals Jr. Parks & Recreation Center ahead of Hurricane Isaias' expected landfall along the Gulf Coast, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, in Mobile, Ala. (AP Photo/Octavio Jones)

Boat owner Tony Rice, right, and his friend Lance Connor haul doors onto his boat to secure it as Hurricane Isaias approaches Bayou La Batre, Ala., Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

This satellite image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Isaias surging toward the U.S. Gulf Coast on Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via AP)

CHICAGO (AP) — José Ramírez homered and drove in three runs, and the Cleveland Guardians beat the Chicago White Sox 9-5 on Thursday night to send their AL Division Series to a winner-take-all Game 5.

Patrick Bailey also went deep as the Guardians won for the second consecutive day in Chicago after beginning their postseason with two straight losses at home. Jo Adell hit a two-run single to cap a six-run sixth inning for the AL Central champions.

Cleveland is looking to become the first major league team to come back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five playoff series since the 2017 New York Yankees accomplished the feat against, well, Cleveland. Teams with a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five postseason series have gone on to win 83 of 93 times.

Game 5 is back in Cleveland on Saturday night, and the winner will open the American League Championship Series at Tampa Bay next Monday.

“As we’ve battled back and forth with these guys, obviously fitting that it’s going to come down to this,” White Sox manager Will Venable said. “It’s been how the back and forth has been all year.”

Chicago's bullpen — one of its biggest strengths in a surprising season — is suddenly looking very tired. Grant Taylor was hit hard after pitching 5 1/3 scoreless innings over the first two games of the series, allowing four runs and four hits without retiring any of the six batters he faced during Cleveland's rally in the sixth.

Miguel Vargas homered late for the White Sox, who flopped in their second straight bid to clinch a postseason series at home for the first time since the 1906 World Series against the Chicago Cubs. Sam Antonacci drove in two runs.

Game 2 starter Gavin Williams got the last three outs on two days of rest for Cleveland after Vargas began the ninth with his first postseason homer. It was the first career relief appearance for Williams, who could start Game 5 as well.

The right-hander threw 18 pitches after throwing 98 on Monday. He was the seventh Guardians reliever as the teams combined to use 15 pitchers in a game that took 3 hours, 39 minutes.

Williams went 14-8 this season and led the AL with 248 strikeouts.

Cleveland trailed 2-0 before rallying in the fifth. Bailey led off with a pinch-hit homer, and Steven Kwan chased Erick Fedde with a one-out single.

Jordan Hicks came in and Ramírez drove a 99.9 mph fastball deep to right-center for just his second homer since Sept. 1, a span of 26 games. The seven-time All-Star had surgery after he broke a bone in his left hand on a swing June 13.

It was Ramírez's first postseason homer since 2024 and No. 5 overall. He also starred in Game 3, finishing with two hits and two RBIs in Cleveland's 9-3 victory.

Chicago responded with two runs in the bottom half, sending a charge through the crowd of 39,920. Antonacci was hit by a pitch from Tim Herrin with the bases loaded, and Brenton Doyle made it 4-3 with a sacrifice fly. The White Sox had the bases loaded with two down, but rookie Braden Montgomery struck out swinging against winning pitcher Erik Sabrowski.

Antonacci has been plunked 33 times this year, including a franchise-record 29 in the regular season. The rookie became the first player in postseason history to be hit by a pitch with the bases loaded multiple times in a career, after he was also plunked in the same situation in Game 3.

Losing pitcher Anthony Kay started the sixth for Chicago, but the left-hander was replaced by Taylor after Travis Bazzana's RBI double tied it at 4. Bailey greeted Taylor with a run-scoring single, and Cleveland started to pull away.

Walks by Brayan Rocchio and Kwan loaded the bases for Ramírez, who made it 6-4 with an infield single. Chase DeLauter added another run-scoring single before Adell capped the outburst with a liner to right that drove in Kwan and Ramírez.

“They’re making really good swing decisions. They’re making contact. We talked about how good a job they do of doing that," Venable said. “When you walk guys, they make you pay. We were able to get away with it a couple times the first couple games. These last two, just weren’t able to.”

Adell hit a three-run triple during Cleveland's Game 3 victory. He has four hits, three walks and six RBIs in the series.

See AP’s full MLB coverage here

Chicago White Sox players watch from the dugout during the ninth inning in Game 4 of baseball's American League Division Series against the Cleveland Guardians, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Huh)

Chicago White Sox's Miguel Vargas watches his solo home run during the ninth inning in Game 4 of baseball's American League Division Series against the Cleveland Guardians, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Melissa Tamez)

Cleveland Guardians relief pitcher Gavin Williams delivers during the ninth inning in Game 4 of baseball's American League Division Series against the Chicago White Sox, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Huh)

Cleveland Guardians' Jose Ramirez celebrates after hitting a 2-run home run during the fifth inning in Game 4 of baseball's American League Division Series against the Chicago White Sox, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Melissa Tamez)

Cleveland Guardians' Jose Ramirez hits a 2-run home run during the fifth inning in Game 4 of baseball's American League Division Series against the Chicago White Sox, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Melissa Tamez)