A tense election in Serbia will decide if a student movement can topple populist leader Vucic

BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — Serbia is holding an early parliamentary election this weekend with a grassroots student-led movement trying to end the 14-year rule of the Balkan country's powerful leader Aleksandar Vucic and his right-wing populist party.

The authoritarian former President Vucic wants to return as prime minister after the vote on Sunday. But his Serbian Progressive Party, or SNS, faces a serious threat from the newly-formed Students' List — a movement born out of almost two years of student protests triggered by a train station tragedy in 2024.

The election is closely watched in the European Union, which has criticized democratic backsliding under Vucic in Serbia, a candidate nation for EU membership. It also comes as student and youth protests shake France and several other EU countries.

Even though Serbia's 6.4 million voters can choose from multiple parties, the vote is shaping up to be a referendum between Vucic and his SNS party on one side, and the Students' List on the other.

Observers expect a high turnout, predicting that most smaller parties could end up below the 3% threshold needed to make it into the 250-member Parliament.

International election monitors and the EU already have expressed concern about the safety and fairness of the ballot that has been marred by pre-election detentions, near-total government control over the media and reports of surveillance and cyber attacks against activists.

The previous election, in 2023, was followed by opposition protests claiming fraud as international observers reported a number of irregularities.

This week, the Serbian Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability monitoring group cited “narrowing of freedoms and deepening of inequality” among election participants and voters. The report by the group noted over 100 violent incidents during the campaign.

Vucic has campaigned fiercely in round-the-clock live coverage on pro-government media. He has attacked his opponents as foreign mercenaries pushing a color revolution and chaos against his plans to build prosperity, new roads and hospitals.

Ditching his proclaimed pro-EU position that helped his populist party come to power in 2012, Vucic repeatedly boasted of an endorsement from Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

Putin, he told the state RTS television this week, knows that “there won’t be any sanctions” against Russia only if the populists win.

“It is no coincidence that Vladimir Putin said he hopes that I will be the prime minister,” Vucic said.

Last month, Vucic also defied the EU by allowing a hero’s funeral in Belgrade for Ratko Mladic, the former Bosnian Serb army commander convicted of genocide by a U.N. court in the Netherlands. The SNS party next joined forces with Vucic's former hard-right Serbian Radical Party, whose leader Vojislav Seselj is also a convicted war criminal from the Yugoslav conflicts in the 1990s.

Critics accuse Vucic of choking the country with rampant corruption, ties to organized crime and a crackdown on democratic freedoms, particularly the media, which he has denied. Suspicions of graft in state railway projects triggered student-led protests after a collapsed canopy at a train station in Serbia's northern city of Novi Sad killed 16 people in November 2024.

The students' call for accountability and justice over the tragedy in Novi Sad has attracted voters who had been disillusioned with mainstream politicians.

The students' final campaign rally on Thursday evening in Belgrade gathered huge crowds of boisterous supporters chanting “Victory.”

"Not everything is going to be great after Sunday, but it will be much, much better,” said Lidija Miladinovic, a supporter of the student bloc.

The students have campaigned under “Students win” and “Serbia or mafia” slogans in a mixture of hope and urgency in their message. The leaderless youth movement has focused its struggle on restoring justice and the rule of law in the country they say is ravaged by corruption.

Vilified in the pro-government media, the students have marched and cycled through the country to reach voters in rural areas, which are traditionally Vucic’s strongholds.

Opinion polls ahead of the vote have published varied results while both camps say they are ahead. Aleksandra Krstic from Belgrade's Faculty of Political Sciences said what happens on election night is hard to predict.

“I do not see a possibility that he (Vucic) would concede defeat,” Krstic said. Vucic, she added, holds “extraordinary power, huge influence and a (political) machinery that has been perfected.”

Scores of students have been arrested and accused of anti-state activities in the past two years. Violent incidents during protests often involved Vucic’s loyalists who have been camping in a park in central Belgrade for over a year.

“Serbia’s autocratic and authoritarian regime has had nothing to do with democratic values for a long time now,” Krstic said.

People shine the lights of their mobile phones and light flares during the final "Student List – Students Win" rally ahead of a parliamentary election in Belgrade, Serbia, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Armin Durgut)

People gather for the final "Student List – Students Win" rally ahead of a parliamentary election in Belgrade, Serbia, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Armin Durgut)

Serbia's populist leader Aleksandar Vucic, center, listens to the Serbian national anthem with supporters during a pre-election rally of his ruling Serbian Progressive Party ahead of the early parliamentary election scheduled for Oct. 25, in Belgrade, Serbia, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026. (AP Photo)

Serbia's populist leader Aleksandar Vucic gestures during a pre-election rally of his ruling Serbian Progressive Party ahead of the early parliamentary election scheduled for Oct. 25, in Belgrade, Serbia, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026. (AP Photo)

A young man holds a Serbian flag as people gather for the final "Student List – Students Win" rally ahead of a parliamentary election in Belgrade, Serbia, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Marko Drobnjakovic)

SOFIA, Bulgaria (AP) — Bulgarians will vote for a new president on Sunday following an election campaign that was focused mainly on Russia’s war in Ukraine and the widening hostilities in the Black Sea, on Bulgaria's doorstep, including deadly drone attacks on commercial vessels.

Candidates are also addressing public fears about the steep rise in energy prices and surging inflation, with many Bulgarians in rural areas struggling to make ends meet.

Bulgaria’s presidency is primarily ceremonial. Although the head of state has no executive powers, and all major policies must be approved by Parliament, direct election gives the president greater political authority. The president leads the armed forces and can veto legislation, signs international treaties and appoints ambassadors.

Presidents in Bulgaria are elected directly for a five-year term and can serve no more than two terms.

Analysts expect none of the 27 candidates to win outright on Sunday. Turnout must be above 50% of 6.6 million registered voters and the winner needs a majority of the votes. Sunday’s turnout is expected to be less than 40%, which means a runoff on Nov. 1.

Incumbent Iliana Yotova, a 62-year-old journalist and former member of the European Parliament, is a front-runner. She previously served as vice president under Rumen Radev, the current prime minister, during his two terms as head of state. She took over the presidency in January 2026, when Radev stepped down to run for parliament, and is seeking her own mandate.

Radev's center-left Progressive Bulgaria party won a landslide victory in April’s general election. Yotova is running as an independent, but also has the official backing of Progressive Bulgaria and the Socialist Party, where her career began.

Her main challenger is economist Andrei Gyurov, a former deputy governor of the central bank and caretaker prime minister who led the country in the early months of 2026. He is supported by the pro-Western reformist opposition. Observers believe his best chance of winning would come in a runoff.

Yotova's victory would keep the presidency in the hands of the ruling majority, a departure from the country's post-communist history.

The Balkan country joined NATO in 2004 and the European Union in 2007, and while there is a broad consensus among the parties in Parliament on the country's pro-Western path, widespread pro-Russian sentiments based on traditional historical and cultural ties with Russia have divided society, particularly since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine.

Radev has often stated that he would keep Bulgaria on its European path but at the same time he has called for improved relations with Russia and the lifting of sanctions. Analysts expect Yotova to continue Radev’s policy.

Dobromir Zhivkov, managing director of Market Links polling agency, said that Yotova belongs to the political class that advocates a more neutral position for Bulgaria.

“They call for an end to aid for Ukraine and a halt to arms deliveries to Ukraine; we often hear them use Kremlin rhetoric and terminology borrowed directly from Kremlin propaganda” he told The Associated Press.

Addressing supporters at a rally this week, Yotova said that one of the main points of divergence from her opponents was the war in Ukraine. She said she advocated for peace through negotiations, rather than force.

“Do we want the Black Sea to become a closed military zone? We will categorically not agree to such a decision. I will not accept this warmongering,” she said.

A string of drone attacks on at least seven cargo vessels in the Black Sea this month, off the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, has raised concerns over Russia's intentions to escalate the conflict. The attacks in the two countries’ exclusive economic zones threaten a global shipping route and have left three people dead with at least 28 missing. They also run the risk of drawing other countries directly into the war for Ukraine.

A poll conducted Oct. 13-19 by Market Links gave Yotova 47.3% versus Gyurov's 30.6%. The poll was conducted among 1,006 Bulgarians and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

If she wins, Yotova would become Bulgaria's first elected female president.

Posters featuring independent presidential candidate Andrey Gyurov and his vice-presidential running mate, Georgi Kandev are displayed on screens during their campaign's closing event in Plovdiv, Bulgaria, on Oct. 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Valentina Petrova)

Independent presidential candidate Andrey Gyurov speaks during campaign's closing event in Plovdiv, Bulgaria, on Oct. 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Valentina Petrova)

Poster of incumbent President and presidential candidate Iliana Yotova is seen in Sofia, Bulgaria, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026, before presidential elections on Sunday, Oct. 25. (AP Photo/Valentina Petrova)

Incumbent President and presidential candidate Iliana Yotova attends pre-election campaign event in Sofia, Bulgaria, on Oct. 20, 2026. (AP Photo/Valentina Petrova)