Young voters move away from GOP, many voters driven by opposition to Trump: Early election takeaways

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has repeatedly encouraged voters to pretend he's on the ballot this Election Day. They appear to be taking his advice — and that's not a good thing for the Republican president or his party.

Voters are in the mood for change, according to The AP Voter Poll, which found that roughly three-quarters of voters say they feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the country today. Young voters in particular appear to have shifted dramatically away from the GOP after Trump made inroads with this group in 2024.

And among the voters who had Trump in mind when they cast their vote, about twice as many wanted to express opposition to the Republican president as those who wanted to support him.

Most also blamed the Trump administration for high costs: about 6 in 10 say higher than usual prices are “more because of Trump’s policies” rather than “more because of factors outside Trump’s control.”

Additionally, about 70% of voters want Congress to provide more checks and balances on the presidency.

Democrats are looking to win majorities in the House and Senate, which would curb Trump's power after he's faced few limits from a compliant Republican-controlled Congress. Several key governors’ offices also are up for grabs.

It could be a difficult night for Trump’s Republican Party, though the political map, not to mention a fresh round of gerrymandering, could limit Democratic gains.

Here's what we're watching Tuesday:

The Republican president is trying to defy history, which shows that in almost every modern midterm election the party in the White House has lost seats in Congress — sometimes many of them.

Democrats certainly hope that's the case this year. The party is optimistic, given Trump's dismal approval ratings and voter concerns about the war with Iran and the surging price of gas and other daily necessities.

The AP Voter Poll suggests most voters are deeply unhappy with Trump, with roughly 6 in 10 saying they disapprove of how he’s handling the presidency.

About 4 in 10 say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, while roughly 3 in 10 say the state of democracy is the top issue, according to the poll, well above the number who said the same about crime, healthcare and immigration.

Views of Trump’s priorities more broadly were also mostly negative: About 6 in 10 voters said Trump places a higher priority on his personal interests than the country’s interests.

Trump was betting that his base of white working-class voters — and an increased share of young people and voters of color — which fueled his presidential victory in 2024, could save his Republican allies if they show up in great numbers.

But things may not be going as he hoped.

The AP Voter Poll indicates a substantial shift in young people moving away from Republicans. Voters under 30 were about evenly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris two years ago. But in this election, about 7 in 10 voters in that same age nationally say they supported the Democratic House candidate in their area.

Young voters only make up about 10% of the electorate, according to the poll, which limits the impact of the shift. But it nonetheless makes it harder for the GOP to win.

We're about to learn whether other elements of the Trump coalition are still strong enough to stave off a political beatdown. The answer will have huge implications for the midterms and the next presidential cycle.

It doesn't happen often.

Since World War II, the House and Senate have flipped from one party to the other in the same midterm just three times: 1946, 1994 and 2006. The common thread when it does happen is an electorate clamoring for change or broad frustration with the sitting president.

This year has both, and Democrats are trying to capitalize on the opportunity.

Strategists in both parties believe Democrats are on track to win a majority in the House, where Republicans began the current Congress with a slim margin of 220-215.

Democrats got a big boost early in the night when Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff was declared the winner less than an hour after polls closed. Ossoff was once viewed as Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent and the only Democratic senator running in a state Trump won in 2024.

It's unclear how big of a swing there could be, however. Democrats are targeting more than 60 districts, including many where Trump won by double digits. But between redistricting and the deep partisan divide between metropolitan and rural America, there simply aren't as many competitive races as there were in some previous years when the House flipped, including 2018, when Democrats netted 40 more seats.

Early tells could be Florida's redrawn 22nd and 25th Districts, both of which were supposed to be Republican pickups after redistricting this spring; Virginia's 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democratic former Rep. Elaine Luria; and Virginia's 1st District, where Democrat Shannon Taylor, a local prosecutor, is challenging Republican Rep. Rob Wittman.

The Senate, meanwhile, is up for grabs. Republicans currently have a 53-47 advantage. To net the four seats that Democrats need to take control, they must win states that Trump won. Among their targets: Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska.

While Trump's standing has cratered in 2026, Democrats' brand as a whole isn't much to brag about. That will leave the party's major factions — the progressive left flank and the liberal-to-moderate establishment — parsing the outcomes to claim any advantage in Democrats' tug-of-war over party identity.

Overall, Democrats have at least a small advantage in their perceived handling of several major issues, The AP Voter Poll found, although a significant share of voters say neither party has the edge.

Voters are a little more likely to say Democrats would handle the economy and government corruption better than Republicans. And Democrats have a wider advantage on their handling of transgender issues and healthcare, while voters are more split on which party would better handle issues related to artificial intelligence, immigration and foreign policy.

Despite their slight advantage on some issues, the Democratic Party is not much more popular with voters than the Republicans. Just under half of voters have a “somewhat” or “strongly” favorable view of the Democratic Party, while about 4 in 10 view the GOP positively.

The Democratic Party’s identity is still very much in flux.

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is progressives' highest-profile candidate, and the movement would have a feather in its cap should he defeat Republican Mike Rogers to keep the seat in Democrats' hands. It's one thing for New Yorkers to elect Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, as mayor. It's quite another for an unabashed progressive like El-Sayed to carry a perennial battleground state that helped elect Trump twice.

On the other hand, progressives could lose leverage if their candidates are unsuccessful. Senate losses in Michigan and Minnesota — where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is defending a Democratic-held open seat against Republican Michele Tafoya — could cost Democrats control of the Senate and lead to serious finger pointing.

Still another possibility is that Democrats of all ideological stripes win, piling up Senate, House and gubernatorial victories that depend on urban, suburban and rural voters. That scenario would do little to resolve the discussion over party identity and would all but guarantee a wide-open, rollicking presidential nominating fight.

Trump set off a tempest in Texas last year when he pushed the most populous Republican-run state to redraw congressional boundaries. California Gov. Gavin Newsom answered by persuading his state's voters to respond in kind. Democratic and Republican states followed. Along the way, the U.S. Supreme Court gutted part of the Voting Rights Act, thus allowing several Southern states to redraw districts that had been majority or near-majority Black.

On paper, the results suggest a net shift of nine seats to Republicans. But the gerrymandering meant spreading conservative supporters across more districts. In Florida and Texas, especially, the Republican plan counted on getting help from Latinos and other nonwhite voters who backed Trump in 2024 — and that may not happen.

Tuesday's results will settle whether redistricting ends up being a clear Republican benefit or a reminder that the law of unintended consequences can apply in politics, too.

It’s a question not usually asked in U.S. politics.

The world is watching to see whether the president leverages the vast resources of the federal government to interfere with the election. Based on recent rhetoric, legal action and his yearslong record of promoting baseless claims of widespread voter fraud in elections he loses, there is reason to take the threat seriously.

In recent days, the Trump administration hinted at federal intervention in Alaska after a judge rejected his Justice Department’s lawsuit seeking to block certification of the Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. Trump called the situation “voter fraud at the highest level.” The administration also tried and failed to block California from counting 20,000 ballots from people the federal government has identified as “likely” noncitizens.

Trump’s Department of Justice is sending about 1,000 department staff to observe voting and ensure federal laws are being followed. Election observers are more concerned that Trump may dispatch federal immigration agents or the National Guard to intimidate voters in large Democratic precincts.

The Trump administration says it has no current plans to do so.

Still, a vast election protection effort will be on display this week featuring hundreds of Democratic groups and government watchdogs.

Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers greets people at an election eve event Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Rochester Hills, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a campaign event in San Antonio, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, left, stands on a stage for a photo with Former NBA center Enes Kanter Freedom during a campaign event in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Democratic candidate U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff shakes hands with a supporter at his final campaign event before Election Day, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Ga. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)

Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, left, speaks with President Donald Trump on stage during a campaign rally at the Five Flags Event Center, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Dubuque, Iowa. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has won reelection in Georgia as his party tries to break Republicans’ hold on power in Washington and recapture Congress.

Ossoff’s victory over Rep. Mike Collins denied Republicans a seat they had once seen as a top pickup opportunity. Polls are still open in many states across the country as voters, angry over high prices and the war in Iran and concerned about government corruption, cast their ballots in midterm elections that will serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term.

The elections could drastically shift power in Washington. Democrats were cautiously optimistic as they watched Republicans spend the campaign’s final stretch pumping tens of millions of dollars into states and districts that Trump won handily two years ago. They're betting that discontent over Trump’s failure to tackle rising costs, the Iran war, and perceptions that he's focused more on gilding the nation’s capital than their pain at the pump will depress Republican turnout and drive their own voters to the polls.

Republicans held out hope their money advantage would help stem the tide, but they were bracing to lose control of the U.S. House and fighting to hang onto the U.S. Senate — an outcome that seemed unlikely earlier this year, given a map widely seen as favoring their party.

Holding the seat in battleground Georgia has been critical to Democratic hopes of winning the Senate. Early in the campaign cycle, Ossoff was thought to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the chamber. But he outraised Collins, a two-term congressman who won Trump’s endorsement in a competitive primary, and ran an aggressive campaign that sparked speculation that Ossoff could run for president himself.

In other early results, Democratic Sen. Mark Warner was easily reelected in Virginia and Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz won a new Florida seat after switching districts in response to Republican redistricting.

Margins are tight in both chambers; one or two seats could tip the balance. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the Senate to win the majority, and most competitive races are in historically red states. In the House, they need three.

More than 59 million people had already cast ballots before Tuesday, according to an Associated Press analysis, surpassing early-voter turnout from 2022.

Trump, whose party has struggled when he's not running to turn out the low-propensity voters who've fueled his victories, has told voters to act as though he's on the ballot, even as many Republican candidates have kept their distance.

His aggressive campaign schedule had him visiting the reddest states, including Kansas, Mississippi and South Carolina, underscoring his party’s challenges.

On Tuesday, he declared in a Fox News Channel interview that “inflation is solved” — even though consumer prices rose 3.6% in September from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported last week.

“I think the results are going to be better than you think,” Trump predicted.

Voters were sour heading into Tuesday, with the midterm electorate deeply unhappy with the country’s direction and pessimistic about the future, according to The AP Voter Poll.

Most said they feel frustrated with the way things are going, with about three-quarters saying they feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the country’s current trajectory. Dissatisfaction was particularly high in blue states like California and Massachusetts, but even in red states, a majority of voters were at least “dissatisfied.”

The economy was once one of Trump's strongest issues and key to his reelection victory. But the poll found that three-quarters of voters say the economy is “not so good” or “poor." About 8 in 10 say inflation has caused a “severe” or “moderate” financial hardship for their households as higher prices have made it harder to afford basic essentials such as gas and groceries.

Government corruption was also a key issue with voters. Roughly half cited it and the cost of living as “crucial” to their vote for Congress — higher than immigration enforcement policies, the war in Iran and AI data centers.

Despite their relative advantage on issues, the Democratic Party is not much more popular with voters than the Republicans. Just under half of voters have a “somewhat” or “strongly” favorable view of the Democratic Party, while about 4 in 10 view the GOP positively.

“The American people are angry. They want change,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who said momentum was on her party’s side.

Polling sites opened early Tuesday along the East Coast, with few disruptions. In New York’s suburban Westchester County, ballots were being placed in emergency bags for later counting due to what officials said was an issue with machines accepting paper ballots. They stressed the ballots would remain secure.

In Raleigh, North Carolina, 57-year-old librarian James Moore said he voted for Democrats in response to Trump’s big tax breaks and spending cuts bill.

“I’m paying more taxes. I’m paying more for my healthcare. I’m paying more for everything,” he said. “We need more representatives in Congress that are going to stand up to Trump.”

Mark Barker of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, said Trump was top of mind as he voted, too.

“I really think he’s doing an awesome job,” said Barker, citing the president's promise to give $5,000 to every U.S. adult if Republicans retain control of Congress, his border policies and the war in the Middle East.

Trump has made false claims about voting fraud, such as insisting noncitizens are casting ballots en masse. His administration has filed lawsuits in Alaska and California. Democrats fear interference and voter intimidation as his Justice Department threatens to prosecute local election officials.

Republicans tried to buck historical precedent — a president’s party almost always loses seats during the midterms — with an aggressive redistricting effort aimed at creating a more favorable congressional map. But the plan may fall short as districts drawn in Florida and other states to be safely red may not vote that way.

Other Trump choices could prove costly. In Texas, Trump worked to oust longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in favor of scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton, setting the stage for an expensive race against Democratic nominee James Talarico, who Democrats hope may help them finally flip the state.

In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis retired after clashing with Trump. The president's chosen replacement, former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, has struggled to gain traction against the Democrats' candidate, former Gov. Roy Cooper.

“Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters, we win," said Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters.

In the Senate, Democrats have been most confident about picking up North Carolina and holding Georgia. Other key battlegrounds include Ohio, where Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted, and Alaska, where the Trump administration filed a lawsuit to block certification of Senate results if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan loses the race, citing the presence of a second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the ballot.

Republicans hope they can hold seats in Iowa, Kansas and Maine and pick up Michigan, where Mike Rogers faces progressive Abdul El-Sayed — one of a crop of left-wing candidates who prevailed in Democratic primaries. El-Sayed's former primary opponent, Haley Stevens, upended the race by endorsing Rogers, renewing focus on tensions over Israel and the party's direction.

In the House, Republicans are trying to hang on to their narrow majority, as Democrats aim to flip seats in states Trump repeatedly carried, from Florida to Texas to Iowa.

The vast majority of Republican television ad spending in the general election, 88.1%, was spent in states and districts Trump won in 2024, according to an Associated Press analysis of data from media tracking firm AdImpact. That included more than $850 million on ad reservations in states and districts Trump won by 10 percentage points or more.

Beyond Washington, 36 states are electing governors. Democrats hope to take over a majority of statehouses for the first time in two decades. Competitive races include those in heavily populated states such as Texas and Florida, plus reliably red states such as Iowa.

In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign faced backlash for an ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother, who lost custody of Acton decades ago after her husband, Acton’s stepfather, was indicted for raping Acton as a child.

The results will shape the final two years of Trump’s second term. The Republican-controlled Congress acted as a rubber stamp to much of his agenda. While Trump has proven adept at steamrolling efforts to rein him in, Democrats taking control of even one chamber would open the floodgates to investigations and possible impeachments. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and tech titan Elon Musk, a former top Trump adviser, are among possible targets.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, in line to make history as the nation’s first Black speaker of the House if his party sweeps to power, has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on lowering the cost of living and aggressively overseeing the Trump administration.

The Senate could emerge as a key backstop for Trump’s priorities if Republicans retain control or as a new power center for Democrats who could use it to halt presidential nominees and challenge the White House agenda.

An especially strong showing for Democrats would also boost potential presidential candidates, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. It could also complicate the paths of Vice President JD Vance and other Republicans who may be looking to turn their loyalty to Trump into momentum.

Associated Press journalists Linley Sanders, Aaron Kessler and Ali Swenson in Washington; Cody Jackson in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.; and Allen Breed in Raleigh, N.C., contributed.

Residents vote in the midterm elections at the Old Stone School in Hillsboro, Va., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/John McDonnell)

A Sheriff's Deputy and his dog inspect ballots at the Los Angeles County Ballot Processing Center on Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in City of Industry, Calif. (AP Photo/William Liang)

Ballots are sorted on Election Day Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in San Francisco.(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Brad Girod holds his 14-month-old daughter, Genevieve, as he votes on Election Day during the midterm election at a polling place in the National Veterans Memorial and Museum in Columbus, Ohio, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

A woman votes at the Emery Heights Community Center, Tuesday Nov. 3, 2026, during the midterm elections in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

A voting location is seen at the Greater Middle Baptist Church on Nov. 3, 2026 in Memphis, Tenn. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

People cast their ballots at the polling place at the League for People with Disabilities in Baltimore on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)

A woman votes at the Emery Heights Community Center, Tuesday Nov. 3, 2026, during the midterm elections in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Samantha Pounder, of Washington, confirms her address with a poll worker while voting with her daughters Aya, 3, left, and Sade, 6, at the Emery Heights Community Center, Tuesday Nov. 3, 2026, during the midterm elections in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

People move in line to cast their ballots at the polling place at the League for People with Disabilities in Baltimore on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)

Voters cast their ballots at Public School 321 elementary school in the Brooklyn borough of New York on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

A volunteer places a "Vote Here" sign at the Brooklyn Museum in New York on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

Voters cast their ballots at the Brooklyn Museum in New York on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

A volunteer sorts "I Voted" stickers at the Brooklyn Museum in New York on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

A person walks to the City of Arlington South Service Center ahead of the polling place opening on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Josh Turek speaks during a campaign rally, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Council Bluffs, Iowa. (AP Photo/Ellen Schmidt)

People listen to Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who is running for reelection, outside an agricultural business as she makes a campaign stop, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Van Buren, Maine. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., introduces Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed during a campaign rally at Eastern Michigan University, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Ypsilanti, Mich. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, speaks to members of the media before sign-waving with supporters at the edge of Midtown Mall, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

People wait in line to cast their ballot at a polling location open for early voting at the Curtis D. Menard Memorial Sports Center, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Wasilla, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)