Erie County in Pennsylvania, a former manufacturing hub now grappling with economic decline, has emerged as a bellwether for U.S. election outcomes, with both the Democratic and Republican parties closely eying the region's critical vote.
The U.S. presidential election is set to unfold in a tense atmosphere over the coming weeks, particularly in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—collectively known as "The Blue Wall", which historically favored Democrats until its collapse in 2016 when Donald Trump swept all three states.
Erie, a city steeped in manufacturing history, once thrived in the 1950s but has since faced significant economic decline, losing around 30,000 manufacturing jobs as factories shuttered.
Phil Kerner, a toolmaker in Erie following in the footsteps of his grandfather and father, reflected on the city's industrial legacy. While he still works in the field, he has also launched a YouTube channel dedicated to toolmaking.
Kerner recalled Erie once had so much industry that nobody got laid off.
"[But] it was just like a 15-year period there was just, like bad news almost every week. It wasn't like watching a rocket ship crash. It was like a slow-motion car crash," he said.
Now, Erie County finds itself at the epicenter of a crucial political battle.
Pennsylvania, a key swing state, flipped from Democrat Barack Obama to then Republican nominee Donald Trump in 2016, then back to the Democrats and Joe Biden in 2020. Erie County mirrored this pattern, making it a battleground within a battleground.
No Democrat has won the presidency without Pennsylvania since 1948, and as Erie County goes, so often goes the state.
"Erie County is a county that holds a really special place in Pennsylvania politics. It has voted for the winner in nearly every statewide election since 2008, so in some senses, it's a bellwether county. It is hard to imagine a path to victory for Democrats that doesn't come through the state of Pennsylvania," said Prof. Joe Morris, Chair, Political Science Department, Mercyhurst University.
Winning Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes—the most of any battleground state—will be crucial in the upcoming election. As twists and turns await in this race, residents of Erie could play a significant role in determining the next president, a reality not lost on either party.
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have campaigned in Erie County recently, with the Democratic Party opening three offices in the area.
"As soon as President Biden decided he wasn't going to run, and we found out that it was Kamala Harris. It just woke the beast. As we want to say, in Erie, people are so excited. They are coming out of the walls to help," said Marie Troyer, Erie Democratic Party campaigner.
Meanwhile, Republican voter Melissa Labritz, encountered outside the local Republican Party office, offers a different perspective.
"Come here, I see a lot of Democrats. I'm here to spread the word that Republican is the way to go," said Melissa Labritz, Erie County Republican voter.
While most manufacturing jobs may never return to Erie, the community is pivoting to new industries. Kerner remains hopeful for the future but recognizes the shift in labor dynamics.
"My dad was a tool maker, my uncles are tool makers. My grandfather was a tool maker. My brother was a tool maker. I was a tool maker, but my kids won't be tool makers. So, that kind of tells you everything, right?" said Kerner.
As Erie, part of the Rust Belt, works to forge a new future, it holds the potential to wield significant influence over America's political landscape in the process.
Erie County in Pennsylvania emerges as bellwether for pivotal 2024 presidential race
