OPEC faces new challenges if Venezuelan oil production rises: analyst

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OPEC faces new challenges if Venezuelan oil production rises: analyst

2026-01-11 17:27 Last Updated At：01-12 23:21

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+ , face new challenges as the rise of Venezuelan oil production may significantly impact global oil prices, said Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy, a consultancy company on energy value, on Saturday.

As U.S. President Donald Trump urged American oil companies on Friday to re-enter Venezuela to enhance oil output, OPEC+ has decided to maintain steady production levels through early 2026.

In an interview with China Global Television Network (CGTN) in Dubai, Mills emphasized that a rapid increase in Venezuelan production will influence global oil prices and challenge OPEC+'s traditional pricing role.

"Well, the politics of Venezuela are very tricky, so we'll have to see how quickly are U.S. companies actually active there, how quickly does Venezuelan production rise, sanctions are eased, withdrawn or whatever. I think there will be, in that case, an immediate boost to Venezuelan production, but not a large one, perhaps a few hundred thousand barrels per day. The question really is, over the longer term, three to four years, is there sustained investment into Venezuela, so production could rise by perhaps two million barrels per day. That would really be the challenge for OPEC. Venezuela, of course, is an OPEC country, but it's not bound by production limits right now. If Venezuelan production is rising, at some point OPEC will have to have a tough conversation about how far that goes," he said.

Mills highlighted that if Venezuelan oil output rises to over a million barrels per day in the long term, it could lead to lower global oil prices.

"Venezuelan oil, the heavy oil was particularly supplying the US. That, of course, has gone away in the spirit of sanctions. Middle eastern countries, and particularly Iraq and Saudi Arabia, have been sending their heavier oils to the U.S. instead. If Venezuelan oil comes back in a big way, then that will displace the Middle Eastern oil and that will have to go somewhere else. So there's a kind of shuffling around of barrel. That is perhaps a secondary thing. You know, the more important thing is what pressure does it put on the overall oil price? I don't think a few hundred thousand barrels per day of Venezuelan oil make much difference. But if you talk about one or two million over a period of time, then yes, definitely means a period of lower oil prices for longer," he said.

When asked about the sustainability of OPEC+'s role in stabilizing oil prices amid potential increases in Venezuela oil production and evolving demand in Asia, Mills reiterated the necessity for the organization to rethink its strategies.

"I think there always was a process of rethinking, which was coming this year and next year, which is really to say, okay, we will increase production first, then we'll have a big rethink about everybody's production targets and reset them. Some people will go up, some will come down, but there'll be a more logical set of targets for everybody. Now Venezuela somehow will have to be fitted into that depending where it's going. So OPEC's role of price management and supply management continues very much. But yes, this is an additional complication for them to think about," he said.

China's nuclear energy development makes great strides with three-step strategy: CPPCC member

Highlighting the "Future Energy" as a key direction for China's strategic emerging industries, the country's nuclear energy development, guided by its three-step strategy, has seen major strides in the past year, said a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

In a recent press briefing, Xin Feng, also deputy general manager of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), updated the media on the progresses China has achieved under the strategy.

"China's three-step strategy for nuclear energy development -- from the thermal reactor to the fast reactor and the fusion reactor -- was formulated in 1983 as a medium- and long-term plan. For the thermal reactor, over the past year, our 2.0 version of the Hualong One technology has been approved. This is a unified and fully self-owned intellectual property based third-generation nuclear power technology solution. And the Linglong One small modular reactor also successfully completed its cold-state functional test last year and is expected to be put into commercial operation this year," he said.

For the second and third steps, Chinese researchers and engineers have achieved milestones in the past year with the government support, Xin noted.

"Then for the fast reactor, last year, a closed-cycle system for an integral fast reactor successfully achieved preliminary standard design. We will continue to solve its engineering technology challenges. As for the fusion reactor, in 2025, with national support, we established the China Fusion Energy Company in Shanghai. And our Huanliu-3, a platform for conducting research and development of fusion technology, made a big stride, with an iron temperature in it achieving 117 million Celsius and an electron temperature reaching 160 million Celsius. We will continue to adhere to the development strategy and focus on technological research and engineering technology development," Xin said.

The fourth session of the 14th NPC and the fourth session of the 14th National Committee of the CPPCC kicked off in Beijing on March 5 and March 4, respectively.

The "two sessions" -- which refer to the annual meetings of China's supreme organ of state power, the National People's Congress (NPC), and its top political advisory body, the National Committee of the CPPCC -- are a key event on the country's political calendar and offer a window into the country's development direction.