Trump was once wary of ordering regime change in Iran. Here's what made him change his mind

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — With Saturday's military operation against Iran, President Donald Trump demonstrated a dramatic evolution in risk tolerance, adjusting in just a matter of months how far he was willing to go in using American military might to confront Tehran's clerical rule.

Guardrails were tossed aside, as Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered up a battle plan that included targeted strikes on Iran’s leadership, including the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei whose death Trump triumphantly announced in a social media post hours after launching the military operation.

For Trump, it was a far cry from where he stood just eight months ago. At Israel's urging during its 12-day war with Iran last June, he agreed to deployB-2 bombers to pummel three key Iranian nuclear sites — but drew a bright red line when Israelis presented his administration with a plan for killing Khamenei.

The president peppered the supreme leader with thinly veiled threats back in June that he could have killed him if he wanted to. But he rejected the Israeli plan out of concern that it would destabilize the region.

That caution was set aside on Saturday with Trump announcing Khamenei had been killed, while the Israeli military announced it had taken out Iran’s defense minister and the commander of its Revolutionary Guard. Iranian state media early Sunday reported the 86-year-old Supreme Leader's death, without elaborating on a cause.

Khamenei “was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems and, working closely with Israel, there was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do,” Trump said. “This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country.”

Trump had pursued talks with Iran for months. Administration officials told reporters that they offered Iran many ways to have a peaceful nuclear program that could be used for civilian purposes, including an offer of free nuclear fuel in perpetuity.

But the officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said it was clear to them that Iran wanted enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. One of them said that Iran has met their offers with “games, tricks, stall tactics.”

The order to launch strikes came just two days after Trump dispatched his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, for another round of talks with Iranian officials. Middle East and European allies were urging the U.S. administration to give negotiations more time as Trump signaled he was running out of patience.

“The consequences are likely to be as far-reaching as they are uncertain: Within the system that has held power for nearly five decades, between the government and a dissatisfied populace, and between Iran and its adversaries,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. "And although the regime is weakened, a sense that this showdown is an all-or-nothing struggle for its very survival could lead it to respond with every tool still at its disposal.”

Saturday's strikes came after a series of past provocative actions against Iran that resulted in limited blowback, which seemed to inform Trump's risk calculation, said Aaron David Miller, who served as an adviser on Middle East issues to Democratic and Republican administrations over two decades.

Trump in 2018 pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Democratic President Barack Obama's administration. In 2020, Trump ordered a drone strike killing top Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

At the time, the killing of Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, was arguably the most provocative U.S. military action in the Middle East since President George W. Bush launched the 2003 Iraq War to topple Saddam Hussein.

And then Trump this past June ordered the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, which he claimed had "obliterated" their program.

“He did all of these things without cost or consequence to him,” said Miller, who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “He's been risk-ready. That's the nature of his personality.”

Trump administration officials had publicly urged Tehran to give up its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs and end its backing of regional armed proxies. But administration officials said that Tehran would not engage on the missile and proxy concerns.

Iran's rigidity, at a moment when its economy is in shambles weighed by decades of sanctions and its military battered by last year's war, astounded Trump.

Even before the latest round of talks ended on Thursday, there were signs Trump was leaning toward military action.

On Tuesday, Trump in his State of the Union speech claimed that Iran has been building ballistic missiles that could reach the U.S. homeland — a justification that he repeated again on Saturday as he announced the bombardment of Iran was underway.

Iran hasn't acknowledged it is building or seeking to build intercontinental ballistic missiles. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, however, said in an unclassified report last year that Iran could develop a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile by 2035 “should Tehran decide to pursue the capability.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Wednesday that Iran's refusal to speak to its ballistic missile program was a “big problem.” Rubio declined to address the DIA finding that Iran was still years away from developing a missile that could reach the United States.

And Vice President JD Vance, a former U.S. Marine who served in Iraq and has been skeptical of U.S. interventions, on Thursday told The Washington Post that Trump hadn't decided whether to strike Iran. But he offered assurances that military action would not result in the United States becoming involved in a drawn-out conflict.

“The idea that we’re going to be in a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight — there is no chance that will happen,” Vance said.

By Friday, Trump was venting anew about Iran's approach.

“ I’m not happy with the fact that they’re not willing to give us what we have to have,” Trump said. “I’m not thrilled with that. We’ll see what happens."

Senior U.S. lawmakers were told early Saturday that the strikes were coming. Trump monitored the operation from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, with members of his national security team.

Trump’s success with the U.S. military operation earlier his year to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and whisk him and his wife to New York City to face federal drug conspiracy charges also may have emboldened the president, said Jonathan Schanzer, a former Treasury Department official who is now executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank.

Trump had threatened military action last month, but held off, as Iran carried out a deadly crackdown on protests. The demonstrations were spurred by economic grievances but morphed into a nationwide, anti-government push against the ruling clerics.

As human rights groups reported that thousands were killed in the Iranian crackdown, Trump told protesters that help was on its way, but it did not immediately come and the protests petered out.

Schanzer said that Trump's decision not to follow through last month gave his team more time to assemble the now massive presence of fighter jets and warships in the region — as he had done in the Caribbean ahead of the Venezuela operation.

It was leverage, Trump hoped, that would get Khamenei to blink. But the Supreme Leader would not capitulate.

“The way this unfolded was inevitable, because there was no way that the Ayatollah was going to show flexibility," Schanzer said.

Madhani reported from Washington.

People who support the U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran, rally near the White House, Saturday Feb. 28, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

FILE - Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, center, leaves an event titled "International Conference in Support of Palestinian Intifada," in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 21, 2017. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi, File)

President Donald Trump holds up a fist after disembarking Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Fla., Friday, Feb. 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The United States and Israel clashed with Iran at an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Saturday where the U.N. chief and many countries urged a halt to their attacks and a return to negotiations to prevent the conflict from spreading further into the region and beyond.

Secretary-General António Guterres told the council that everything must be done to prevent an escalation. “The alternative,” he warned, “is a potential wider conflict with grave consequences for civilians and regional stability.”

Guterres said the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes violated international law, including the U.N. Charter. He also condemned Iran’s retaliatory attacks for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, insisted the U.S. military action was lawful.

“Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," he told the council. “That principle is not a matter of politics. It’s a matter of global security. And to that end, the United States is taking lawful actions.”

Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon defended the airstrikes as necessary to stop an existential threat.

“We are stopping extremism before it becomes unstoppable,” he said. “We will ensure that no radical regime armed with nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles can threaten our people or the entire world.”

Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran's ambassador to the U.N., told the council that the airstrikes have killed and injured hundreds of Iranian civilians, which he called a war crime and a crime against humanity.

He blasted the U.N. and the Security Council, its most powerful body, for not heeding Tehran’s warnings about the “warmongering statements" by the U.S. in recent weeks and urged the council to act now.

“The issue before the council is straightforward: whether any member state may, including a permanent member of this council, through the use of force, coercion or aggression, determine the political future or system of another state or impose control over its affairs,” Iravani said.

During his speech, the Iranian diplomat did not mention or comment on President Donald Trump's statement that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes, although Iranian state media later confirmed his death. The assassination of the second leader of the Islamic Republic, who had no designated successor, raised the prospects of a protracted conflict given Iranian threats of retaliation.

In a rare exchange, the U.S. and Iranian ambassadors traded warnings and direct rebuffs toward the end of the emergency session as military aggression between their countries risked spilling into a regional war.

After Waltz responded to Iranian claims that the U.S. had violated international law, Iravani asked to speak again to issue a warning: “I advise to the representative of the United States to be polite. It will be better for yourself and the country you represent.”

Waltz responded immediately, saying, “This representative sits here, in this body, representing a regime that has killed tens of thousands of its own people, and imprisoned many more, simply for wanting freedom from your entire tyranny.”

Russia's ambassador condemned the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, while China's ambassador was more measured in his criticism.

“We demand that the United States and Israel immediately cease their aggressive actions,” Russian U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said. “We insist on the immediate resumption of political and diplomatic settlement efforts … based on international law, mutual respect and a balance of interests.”

China’s U.N. Ambassador Fu Cong said China was very concerned by “the sudden escalation of regional tensions” and supported Russia’s call for a return to diplomatic negotiations.

The permanent observer of the 22-nation Arab League, Maged Abdelaziz, suggested Israel was being hypocritical in justifying its military attack by saying it was intended to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Abdelaziz, a former Egyptian ambassador to the U.N., noted that Israel has refused to subject its own nuclear facilities to inspection by the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

The emergency meeting was called by five council members: Bahrain, which is the Arab representative on the council, France, Russia, China and Colombia,.

In a joint statement, the leaders of Britain and France — both veto-wielding members of the council — along with Germany’s chancellor called for a resumption of U.S.-Iranian talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. The three countries, part of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, have led efforts to reach a negotiated solution. Trump pulled the U.S. out of the deal in 2018.

The three European leaders strongly condemned Iranian airstrikes in the region — not the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes — and urged Iran’s leaders to seek a negotiated solution, saying: “Ultimately, the Iranian people must be allowed to determine their future.”

The Security Council meeting is taking place on the last day of the United Kingdom’s presidency and a day before the United States takes over the rotating presidency for the month of March.

Amiri reported from Atlanta.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres attends the opening of the 61st session of the United Nations Human Rights Council at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026. (Valentin Flauraud/Keystone via AP)