Washington is at war with Iran, and the ripple effects are already hitting Beijing. The immediate question is whether this sudden US military action will derail President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated trip to China.
The White House circled the dates weeks ago. On February 21, a spokesperson announced Trump would touch down in China from March 31 to April 2. But Beijing has kept the official schedule deliberately blank. The open secret in diplomatic circles: China wants concrete concessions on US arms sales to Taiwan before rolling out the red carpet.
The tension spilled into the open at Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s March 8 press conference. A CNN reporter lobbed a sprawling question at the veteran diplomat, asking how the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran would warp the upcoming visit. The reporter pointed out that Trump suddenly seems eager to play nice—even keeping China entirely out of his latest State of the Union address. The underlying fear in Washington is that Trump might trade away American leverage on Taiwan just to ink a headline-grabbing trade deal.
Wang brushed off the premise with a quick jab at the reporter's long-winded setup. But the real issue is how these two giants manage their collision course. Wang made it clear that a complete freeze in relations only breeds dangerous miscalculations, while outright confrontation threatens the entire global economy. Neither superpower is going to fundamentally change the other. What matters is rewriting the rules of how they coexist.
The Agenda Is Set
Personal diplomacy is doing the heavy lifting right now. Wang credited direct, top-level engagement between the two leaders as the crucial shock absorber keeping the relationship steady through relentless turbulence.
Make no mistake: 2026 is shaping up to be a defining year for US-China relations, and the playbook for high-level talks is already locked in. The challenge now is clearing the runway. China insists it is ready and open, but Washington needs to meet Beijing halfway to ensure the year ends in stable, sustainable growth rather than crisis.
Read between the lines of Wang’s carefully calibrated response. He entirely bypassed the Iran conflict, effectively signaling that Middle East violence won't torpedo the bilateral summit. By stressing that failing to engage only triggers miscalculation, Beijing is quietly confirming that Trump’s trip is still on the calendar.
The friction points are obvious. When Wang talks about an "agenda on the table" and the urgent need to "manage existing differences," he is pointing directly at Taiwan. US arms sales to the island remain the single biggest flashpoint threatening to derail the dialogue.
The summit is happening, but the optics are shifting. Early whispers suggested Trump would arrive backed by a massive entourage of American corporate heavyweights. Now, the momentum has stalled, and business leaders might stay home. This sudden downsizing of the delegation is the biggest wild card still in play.
Pragmatism Meets Pushback
Beijing is treating this summit as a containment strategy. While Washington’s bureaucratic ranks are packed with anti-China hawks, Trump operates as a transactional pragmatist. The reality is that he is a bully who backs down only when punched in the nose. Look at last year's brutal trade war: Trump jacked up tariffs to a staggering 145%, but when Beijing fired back with sweeping counter-tariffs and a chokehold on rare earth exports, the White House was forced back to the negotiating table.
Now the American president has flipped the script completely. Trump is pitching the idea of a "G2" framework—a grand bargain where the US and China effectively carve up and co-govern the globe. But Beijing wants no part of it. This tension prompted another reporter to press Wang Yi on the contentious "co-governance" concept.
Wang’s rejection was absolute. He acknowledged the massive footprint both nations have, but firmly reminded Washington that the world belongs to more than 190 sovereign states. History proves that whenever great powers try to dominate or divide the world into rival camps, catastrophe follows. China refuses to follow the tired, imperial playbook of seeking hegemony and flatly rejects the logic of a two-power monopoly.
Consider this: the chaos currently gripping the globe flows directly from Washington. The United States is actively dismantling the international order, violating laws, and retreating into isolationism. In stark contrast, China is stepping up as the builder and defender of global stability. By keeping its markets open and playing by the rules, Beijing has secured the moral high ground. It is an anchor of certainty in a fractured world—and that gives China the ultimate advantage moving forward.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
We are living inside One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest — and Washington is running the ward. The leader of the world's most powerful nation produces a fresh justification for war every single day. The lies cycle so fast that we have grown numb to them, and we begin to ask the more disturbing question: Are they mentally abnormal? Or are we?
Since the United States launched its war against Iran on 28 February, the administration has repeatedly rewritten the stated justification for a conflict it entered without legal standing. At a press conference on 2 March, Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed the US launched military strikes against Iran because Israel was about to strike first, and Washington feared Iranian retaliation on the U.S. — so it decided to pre-empt. By invoking self-defence, Rubio was attempting, however clumsily, to frame the assault as compliant with the UN Charter, forcing the argument that the US faced an "imminent threat".
Trump, however, found that version too meek. Eager to claim credit for what he called a successful campaign, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on 3 March that he personally pushed Israel to act against Iran — reasoning that if Israel did not move first, Iran would.
Within hours of Trump's remarks, Rubio reversed course entirely. His new version: Trump struck Iran after concluding that US-Iran nuclear negotiations would not succeed — and Israel's action plan had nothing to do with it.
When the Story Changes Daily
CNN put it plainly: the rotating statements from White House officials exposed a government capable only of concocting shoddy justifications for war. In fewer than ten days, the Trump administration produced at least four different explanations for how Iran constituted an "imminent threat" — two of which directly contradicted each other.
Set that American farce aside and turn the camera to China. On the eve of the annual "Two Sessions" — the plenary meetings of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) — CPPCC spokesperson Liu Jieyi addressed China's diplomatic priorities at a press conference on 3 March. He observed that the world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century at an accelerating pace, with the international situation marked by turbulence and entanglement, and global challenges growing ever more acute. Liu stated that China has always been the "most stable, most reliable, and most constructive" force in a turbulent world.
Those few words from Liu Jieyi capture the China-US contrast precisely. China's role as the world's most stabilising force is visible across three concrete dimensions.
First — The Economic Ballast
Despite the Trump administration's global trade war last year, the Chinese economy demonstrated remarkable resilience, maintaining 5% growth. China's total economic output crossed the new threshold of 140 trillion yuan, with its growth rate remaining among the highest of the world's major economies. China's 5% growth contributed 30% of global expansion, making it the single largest engine of world economic growth. The United States, by contrast, both restrained the economic growth of many nations through its tariff war and undermined itself in the process — America's growth last year is estimated at only around 2%, well below the global average of 3.2%, effectively dragging that average down.
Second — The Diplomatic Stabiliser
Since taking office, the Trump administration launched a first war against Iran in June last year in coordination with Israel — bombing targets across the country, particularly its nuclear facilities. Then, in February this year, it launched a war against Venezuela, abducting President Nicolás Maduro. At the end of February, it struck Iran again, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Make no mistake: Trump still has the audacity to set up a peace commission. The reality is that the United States not only wages outright wars, but serves as the principal behind-the-scenes instigator of multiple regional conflicts around the world.
China, by contrast, has not been involved in a single external war since 1979. Even when disputes arise with other nations, China seeks resolution through peaceful means. The Global Security Initiative put forward by China has already received the support of more than 130 countries and international or regional organisations. China's consistent stance of urging dialogue and reconciliation stands in direct contrast to America's trigger-happy resort to military force.
Third — The Engine of Openness
The United States is practising a "new Monroe Doctrine" — pursuing an isolationist path in the name of American interests, placing self-interest first, sharply hiking tariffs on other nations. This self-serving posture has drawn widespread criticism globally. Washington has even compelled several allied nations to make massive investments on American soil — a brazenly extractive form of conduct.
China, by contrast, has granted comprehensive tariff-free access to imports from the vast majority of developing nations — particularly African countries. China has also extended visa-free entry to a growing number of countries; last year, the number of foreign visitors entering China visa-free rose 75.6% year-on-year. One side is closed and extractive; the other is open and mutually beneficial — the contrast could not be more apparent.
The Counterweight the World Needs
When the world is full of madness, the voice of reason may not always command the spotlight. But if we still believe that rationality exists in this world, then everyone will ultimately find a way through this predicament — and China, as a stabilising force in a turbulent world, will become the counterweight against America's disruptive tide.
Lo Wing-hung
