The potential for a lasting peace agreement in the Middle East could remain elusive due to decades of accumulated mistrust and unresolved regional conflicts, according to a Chinese scholar and expert on the region, as the U.S. and Iran gear up for crucial negotiations amid their current two-week ceasefire.
Niu Xinchun, executive director of the China-Arab Research Institute of Ningxia University in northwest China, shared his analysis of the current situation and also highlighted the role China can play in pushing for a sustainable solution.
After more than a month of deadly clashes, the United States and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire less than two hours before a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, and have agreed to commence talks in Pakistan's Islamabad on Friday.
According to Niu, one of the immediate challenges lies in the narrow scope of the current ceasefire discussions. He also pointed to the complications brought by Israel's continued bombing campaign on Lebanon, which Iran had insisted was included in the current temporary ceasefire.
"The issue of Lebanon is indeed a major one, because the ceasefire does not include Lebanon, making it a point of contention from the outset," he said.
Niu further emphasized that the exclusion of Lebanon from the ceasefire framework not only creates a geographic gap in de-escalation but also introduces a variable that could easily reignite broader tensions.
Beyond the immediate geographic challenges, Niu also pointed to the deeper structural obstacles that have prevented any long-term resolution in previous talks between the U.S. and Iran.
"To reach a permanent ceasefire agreement, the contradictions accumulated between Iran and the United States over the past 40 years must be resolved. Because the United States and Iran are highly hostile and distrustful, and there have been no direct negotiations between the two sides to date, a mediator is indispensable for a ceasefire and negotiations," he said.
While acknowledging that certain third parties could play a facilitating role, Niu expressed skepticism about their ability to exert real pressure, and though Pakistan has emerged as the host for these crunch talks, he says it may find it hard to influence the direction if discussions.
"While Pakistan is a credible interlocutor, its leverage over either side is limited," he said.
Against the fraught backdrop of deep mistrust, Niu outlined China's approach to the crisis, stressing that China's interests in the region are fundamentally different from those of other major power competitors.
"China pursues no narrow self-interest; our sole objective is the stability and prosperity of the region. Therefore, it is in our interest to maintain stability, peace, and economic prosperity in the Middle East," he said.
Two-week ceasefire window fraught with challenges as core conflicts remain unresolved: expert
