Seasonal models are predicting an El Nino climate pattern that could be the strongest on record, bringing with it more extreme weather.
“I think we’re going to see weather events that we’ve never seen in modern history before,” WFLA-TV Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist Jeff Berardelli, in Tampa, Florida, said Friday.
An El Nino event is expected to develop from the middle of this year, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization. While the models indicate that this may be a strong event, the WMO cautioned that the models also have a harder time making accurate forecasts in the spring.
El Nino is a cyclical and natural warming of patches of the equatorial Pacific that then alters the world’s weather patterns. Its counterpart, La Nina, is marked by waters that are cooler than average.
Berardelli said an El Nino event essentially redistributes heat on Earth. Currently, the subsurface heat in the Pacific is moving east across the ocean and ascending to the surface from the deep waters, the initial stages of El Nino.
The WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update showed that sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly. There is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months to follow, according to Wilfran Moufouma Okia, chief of climate prediction at WMO.
El Nino typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months, WMO said.
It looks like the predictive models are onto something, said California Institute for Water Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain. That is because the volume and the intensity of the subsurface warm water anomalies — or pulses of unusually warm water that are a key part of El Nino physics— are about as large as we’ve seen in the historical record, he added.
The very strongest events are called “super El Ninos.”
“One of the key building blocks to make it fully materialize is, in fact, occurring,” Swain said Friday. “We still don't know exactly what's going to happen. It's not guaranteed it'll be a super El Nino. But the potential is there for something genuinely remarkable.”
If the Pacific releases a lot of heat, it supercharges the climate system and wreaks havoc weather-wise, Berardelli said. With more heat, there will be stronger heat waves, worsening drought in some areas, but also more moisture in the air that leads to more intense floods, he said.
El Nino also subdues the hurricane season in the Atlantic because there is so much heat in the Pacific that outcompetes the Atlantic, Berardelli added. Places like the Caribbean will be extra dry this summer and likely have fewer tropical systems, he said.
El Nino has global impacts. Across the United States, it looks like this summer will be hotter than normal, with significant heat waves, Berardelli said. While the specifics are hard to pinpoint this far out, Berardelli is also expecting to see more frequent daily thunderstorms in the Southwest U.S.
Forest degradation, driven by wildfires, logging and drought, affects about 40% of the Amazon. This could be exacerbated in 2026 with a strong El Nino.
The excess heat brought to the surface by El Nino, combined with the planet's warming due to climate change, will lead to record-breaking global warmth, Swain said. He expects to see record global warm temperatures later this year, next year or both.
“All indicators are, at this point, that the next year is going to be a pretty wild year from a global climate perspective,” Swain said.
Michael Mann, a University of Pennsylvania climate scientist, said that while El Nino boosts global temperatures a bit for a year or two, it’s basically a “zero-sum game." It typically oscillates back toward La Nina, which in turn lowers global temperatures for a year or two, he added. The thing to worry about is the longer-term, steady warming trend that will continue as long as people continue to burn fossil fuels, Mann said Friday.
Associated Press News Director Peter Prengaman contributed to this report.
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.
FILE - People walk through a part of the Amazon River that shows signs of drought in Santa Sofia, on the outskirts of Leticia, Colombia, Oct. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Ivan Valencia, File)
FILE - A firefighter battles the Canyon Fire on Aug. 7, 2025, in Hasley Canyon, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez, File)
FILE - Grace Chyuwei pours water on Joe Chyuwei to help with the heat Aug. 3, 2025, in Death Valley National Park, Calif. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
BETHLEHEM, West Bank (AP) — Mohamad Al-Assi ran beneath the concrete wall as the sun rose over Bethlehem. His Nikes pounded the gravel, his breath fogging the air as graffiti and paint splatter blurred past with each stride.
The road along the barrier separating Israel from the occupied West Bank makes up a stretch of a marathon route that Al-Assi and thousands of others ran on Friday. The event is open to people in other parts of the world running in solidarity with the Palestinians and another, shorter race was happening in Gaza.
The race, known as the Palestine Marathon, was held for the first time in three years and was among the first big international events in the West Bank since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. Festivals, conferences and holiday festivities that once drew thousands have been scaled back or canceled because of the war in Gaza and heightened Israeli restrictions.
It marked a turning point for Al-Assi, 27, who was released from Israeli detention six months ago. Video from that day shows him gaunt-faced and hollow-eyed, his once muscular legs weakened after more than two and a half years of prison.
He began training in December, gradually upping his mileage every month since. He ran 62 miles (100 kilometers) that first month, and in April reached 135 miles (217 kilometers), according to his account on the tracking app Strava.
He jogs in the morning after his mother wakes him up in their home in Dheisheh, a Palestinian refugee camp made up of graffiti-covered cinderblock homes in tangled alleyways.
“The main difficulties we face are the cars on the roads and the presence of Israeli security forces along the route where I train,” Al-Assi said.
He had to suspend his training several times because of military operations in the camp.
“I would return home feeling hopeless because I couldn't do what I had intended to do,” Al-Assi said.
In the West Bank, runners cannot complete a 26.2-mile (42.2-kilometer) course without hitting a checkpoint or military gate, which is why Friday's marathon route looped around the same circuit twice.
They ran up through the narrow streets of two Palestinian refugee camps and down to a farming town next to Bethlehem where fields are divided by the concrete wall, barbed wire and cameras. The course hooked back to finish at Bethlehem’s Manger Square.
Organizers say the race highlights restrictions facing Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, where checkpoints can disrupt even routine commutes and where open land for hiking, biking and running is increasingly taken by Israeli settlements and outposts.
“Marathon runners anywhere may ‘hit a wall’ under the physical and emotional strain of completing the 42-kilometer race course," they said on the marathon's website.
But in the West Bank, they added, "runners literally hit the Wall.”
At a time when the West Bank’s economy is struggling and in the shadow of Gaza's fragile ceasefire and stalled rebuilding efforts, the atmosphere in Bethlehem was celebratory. Crowds gathered near the Church of the Nativity to cheer runners at the race's early morning start and finish. Bagpipes blared and drummers pounded out traditional rhythms through streets along the route.
On a beachside road in Nuseirat in central Gaza — which is roughly the length of a marathon — 15 disabled people, including amputees, ran a 2K, and a couple thousand of people ran a 5K. Thirteen years after the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, known as UNRWA, canceled a 2013 marathon because Hamas forbade women from participating, the women were back.
Haya Alnaji, a 22-year-old woman who ran in the 5K, said the number of people taking part reflected that Palestinians in Gaza were determined to live and persevere despite the devastation wrought by more than two years of war.
“All of Gaza loves sports,” she said.
Al-Assi was arrested in April 2023, and imprisoned under administrative detention, which allows Israel to hold detainees for months without charge. Between 3,000 and 4,000 Palestinians are being held under that system, according to Israeli rights groups and the Palestinian Prisoners Society.
In October 2023, Al-Assi was sentenced for transferring money to suspicious entities, a charge he denies. Israel closely monitors money transfers — particularly to Gaza — for fear that funds could end up in the hands of militants. Palestinians, however, say donations and charitable contributions are often swept up in the dragnet. Israel’s military, Shin Bet and Prison Service did not answer questions about Al-Assi's charges.
In Israeli prisons — where detainees routinely complain of inadequate diets — Al-Assi said nearly everyone goes hungry. The weight he lost eroded the endurance built through 10 years of training.
“I have more muscle mass than fat, so when I lost weight, the loss came from my muscles rather than fat,” he said. “This had a major impact on my physical fitness.”
He also had to regain the mental fortitude to run a marathon.
“I was emotionally shattered after spending such a long period in prison,” he said.
On Friday, he collapsed to his knees, bowing and thanking God after finishing second overall, as supporters and journalists encircled him. He dedicated his run to Palestinians still in Israeli detention.
“After 32 months in prison, Mohamad Al-Assi is first in his class!” he shouted through tears, raising his hands and looking up to the sky.
__ Imad Isseid contributed from Bethlehem and Abdel Kareem Hana from Nuseirat, Gaza Strip.
A Palestinian amputee runner takes part in the 2-kilometer Palestine Marathon along the coastal road near Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, Friday, May 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinian runners take part in the 5-kilometer Palestine Marathon along the coastal road near Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, Friday, May 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Runners participate in the Palestine Marathon in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Friday, May 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
Runners pass by Israel's separation wall as they compete in the Palestine Marathon in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Friday, May 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
Palestinian Mohamad Al-Assi, who was released from Israeli detention six months ago, runs past Israel's separation wall as he trains ahead of the Palestine Marathon in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Thursday, May 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Sam Metz)
