Trump "Creates Leverage out of Thin Air" – Highly Passive During China Visit

Trump arrives in Beijing with an empty hand. The US-Iran negotiations have hit a fresh stalemate, and any hope of sealing a peace deal before his state visit to China — which began this Wednesday, May 13 — is all but gone.

Iran refused to budge on treaty terms at the last minute. It went further — publicly declaring its willingness to back China's four-point proposal for peace and stability in the Middle East. On May 11, Iran's Ambassador to China, Fazli, posted on social media that Tehran supports the four principles: peaceful coexistence, state sovereignty, international rule of law, and coordinated development and security. By pivoting to China's foundational principles precisely when treaty language was being negotiated with Washington, Iran was playing the China card directly. The message to Trump was blunt: go ask Beijing to mediate.

Frustrated with nowhere to vent, Trump lashed out in all directions. The US State Department announced a reward of up to US$15 million for information on the financial mechanisms of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The US Treasury simultaneously announced unilateral sanctions on three individuals and nine companies — including four Hong Kong companies, four UAE companies, and one firm registered in Oman — on the grounds that they had assisted Iran in transporting oil to China.

A Reuters analysis put it plainly: with the sanctions timed to the eve of Trump's China trip, the US is almost certainly trying to "create leverage out of thin air." Washington's goal is to manufacture bargaining chips — enough pressure to push China into resolving the Iran deadlock and reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz. "Creating leverage out of thin air" is the right diagnosis. The truth is, Trump has no real cards left to play.

The lead-up to the summit was itself revealing. The US broadcast Trump's mid-May visit to China well in advance, yet Beijing held off on any official confirmation. It was only after the White House announced the visit details on May 10 that China's Foreign Ministry finally confirmed, on Monday morning May 11, that Trump would undertake a state visit from May 13 to 15.

White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly described the visit as carrying "enormous symbolic significance." She framed it around rebalancing US-China relations through reciprocity and fairness to restore America's economic independence. US officials also leaked to foreign wire agencies that the two sides are expected to announce multiple economic and trade cooperation arrangements. These include a dialogue mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment, and the possible establishment of a "Trade Commission" and an "Investment Commission" — though both mechanisms still require further detailing before they can be implemented. The officials also floated the prospect of China announcing purchases of Boeing aircraft, US agricultural products, and energy.

These leaks amount to America's wish list. US officials hammered two themes above all else: China buying more US goods, and China maintaining its supply of rare earths. That is what Washington wants most.

China's priorities, by contrast, are sharply defined. Continuing to supply rare earths is manageable. Buying more Boeing aircraft, energy, and agricultural products is not a problem either — China holds ample foreign exchange reserves. The core demands are different: curbing Taiwan independence movement is a non-negotiable priority, reducing US arms sales to Taiwan is the central issue, and the US must cut out the petty manoeuvres it uses to suppress Chinese industry and maintain stable trade relations.

Diplomatic negotiations are ultimately a test of relative position, and China currently holds the upper hand. Compare this to Trump's previous state visit to China in November 2017. Then, Trump arrived riding high — barely nine months into his first term, full of momentum, on the cusp of launching his trade suppression campaign. His demand was sweeping: China must buy American goods in bulk and commit to staying in the low-to-mid-end manufacturing ecosystem, surrendering any ambition to compete in high-tech sectors. It was, in essence, a Chinese version of the Plaza Accord. China refused. Half a year later, the trade war began.

Nine years on, the US has not crushed China. Chinese industry continues to advance across high-technology sectors. Bringing a new Plaza Accord to Beijing is simply not an option for Trump today. Three specific details show that China is controlling the pace of this summit.

First, the US announced Trump's visit early, but China waited until three days before — May 11 — to make the confirmation public. Beyond signalling that Beijing is unhurried while Washington is not, the delay carried real leverage: until the announcement was made, plans could always change.

Second, China's Ministry of Commerce announced on May 10 that Chinese and US officials would hold economic and trade consultations in South Korea on May 12 and 13 — the day before and the day of Trump's arrival in China. In past US presidential visits, all substantive issues would have been resolved weeks or months beforehand, leaving the visit itself as a celebration and signing ceremony. Holding a working economic meeting in a third country on the eve of the summit signals that core issues remain unresolved. The more eagerly US officials leak optimistic talking points, the more their lack of confidence shows.

Third, the US-Iran war is swaying the entire equation. Washington has managed only a temporary ceasefire — a formal peace treaty remains out of reach. China arranged for Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to visit Beijing on May 5, listening to Tehran's position and showing Iran a measure of respect. With the US now heavily dependent on China to broker a peace agreement, Trump enters the summit as a supplicant — and that dependence makes him even more passive.

Trump's original script read like a conquest narrative. He first invaded Venezuela, captured President Nicolás Maduro, and took control of Venezuelan oil resources. He then attacked Iran, killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and aimed to control Iran's oil supply as well — arriving in China as a conqueror on a winning streak. But Trump badly miscalculated Iran's capacity to counter-attack. The heroic script collapsed into farce. Arriving in Beijing humiliated and empty-handed, Trump will find that China isn't losing any sleep over it — when the storm hits, Beijing doesn't flinch.

Lo Wing-hung

Bastille Commentary

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

Trump woke up with a rare piece of good news: the Iran war is showing signs of easing. He has claimed a ceasefire agreement could be reached within a week. The deadline is pressing — his long-delayed China trip begins next Thursday, 14 May, according to Washington, and arriving in Beijing without a peace deal would be nothing short of an embarrassment.

Here is how the situation on the ground has shifted over the past week.

Iran Softens

Iran has tabled a sweeping new 14-point peace proposal, structured across three phases. The first phase calls for converting the ceasefire into a full cessation of hostilities within 30 days. It extends the truce across all territories involving Israel and regional allies, establishes an international mechanism to prevent a resumption of hostilities, and revises Iran's earlier war reparations demands. Most critically, Iran proposes to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade.

The second phase focuses on Iran's nuclear concessions. Tehran agrees to discuss a complete halt to uranium enrichment for up to 15 years. It rules out the forced dismantlement of its nuclear facilities, but consents to transferring or diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium outside its borders. During this phase, the United States would progressively lift economic sanctions.

Iran's biggest concession here is agreeing to physically move its enriched uranium out of the country, instead of merely agreeing to discuss nuclear issues.

In the third phase, Iran would engage in strategic talks with regional states to build a comprehensive security framework for the entire region. Taken together, this proposal has significantly narrowed the gap between the two sides.

Trump Plays Games

Iran extended an olive branch. Trump responded by playing games. On 2 May, the White House posted a crazy video on X — a looping edit of Trump repeatedly declaring "Winning it, winning it, winning it..." within the span of an entire hour. A day later, on 3 May, he announced the "Project Freedom": a large naval fleet would escort ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz out of the waterway. Strip away the packaging, and the project was a naked attempt to force vessels through the strait by sheer military muscle.

Trump's calculation was clear: pressure Iran into silence, break open the strait, and arrive at the negotiating table with stronger cards. Iran answered with missiles — firing directly at US escort destroyers. Because the designated shipping route ran close to the United Arab Emirates, Iranian missiles also struck UAE oil tankers and oil facilities. In an instant, the promise of peace collapsed into renewed hostilities. International oil prices swung from falling to rising within a single day, with a total range of as much as 8%. Trump had badly misjudged Iran's reaction — and blown the whole thing up.

Trump Backs Down Again

Once Iran fired, Trump found himself trapped. Under US law, a president can wage war without Congressional authorization for only 60 days — and that deadline had already passed on 1 May. Going back to war with Iran would require Congressional approval. Trump had absolutely no confidence he could get it. A deeply ironic spectacle then emerged: when media pressed him on whether Iran's missile strike on US destroyers constituted a violation of the ceasefire and an act of war, Trump transformed into Iran's de facto spokesman. He deflected, hedged, and refused to call it an act of war — calling the Iranian missile strike a "love tap" instead, while insisting the ceasefire was still "in effect." He even admitted the two countries were locked in what he called a "mini war"— then immediately pivoted to say he wanted it ended "now." That kind of white-horse-is-not-a-horse sophistry was never going to hold.

Middle Eastern media, citing sources on 7 May, reported that Iran and the United States had reached a consensus: easing the US naval blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Neither Washington nor Tehran had confirmed the report.

Make no mistake: watching a superpower reverse course so dramatically — and so repeatedly — is a remarkable sight. One can’t but wonder: who would still want to follow this kind of boss?

After calling off the "Project Freedom", Trump quickly put out word that a deal with Iran would be reached within a week. The reality is Trump has run out of room for maneuvering. He cannot go back to war with Iran — Congressional authorization is essentially out of reach — and the clock is ticking toward his China trip. His only viable path is to secure a peace deal before Air Force One touches down in Beijing.

From TACO to NACHO

American elites have given Trump a new nickname to go with his latest blunders. The old label "TACO" — borrowed from the name of a Mexican flatbread — mocked him as  "Trump Always Chickens Out." The new one is "NACHO," taken from the name of Mexican tortilla chips, standing for "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens." It is a pointed jab at Trump's string of miscalculations, with the strait's reopening looking no closer to reality.

One can only hope Trump comes to his senses — turns "NACHO" back into "TACO," faces reality, makes the necessary concessions, and reaches a peace agreement with Iran without further delay. The world has already suffered enough.

Lo Wing-hung