Trump "Creates Leverage out of Thin Air" – Highly Passive During China Visit

Trump arrives in Beijing with an empty hand. The US-Iran negotiations have hit a fresh stalemate, and any hope of sealing a peace deal before his state visit to China — which began this Wednesday, May 13 — is all but gone.

Iran refused to budge on treaty terms at the last minute. It went further — publicly declaring its willingness to back China's four-point proposal for peace and stability in the Middle East. On May 11, Iran's Ambassador to China, Fazli, posted on social media that Tehran supports the four principles: peaceful coexistence, state sovereignty, international rule of law, and coordinated development and security. By pivoting to China's foundational principles precisely when treaty language was being negotiated with Washington, Iran was playing the China card directly. The message to Trump was blunt: go ask Beijing to mediate.

Frustrated with nowhere to vent, Trump lashed out in all directions. The US State Department announced a reward of up to US$15 million for information on the financial mechanisms of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The US Treasury simultaneously announced unilateral sanctions on three individuals and nine companies — including four Hong Kong companies, four UAE companies, and one firm registered in Oman — on the grounds that they had assisted Iran in transporting oil to China.

A Reuters analysis put it plainly: with the sanctions timed to the eve of Trump's China trip, the US is almost certainly trying to "create leverage out of thin air." Washington's goal is to manufacture bargaining chips — enough pressure to push China into resolving the Iran deadlock and reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz. "Creating leverage out of thin air" is the right diagnosis. The truth is, Trump has no real cards left to play.

The lead-up to the summit was itself revealing. The US broadcast Trump's mid-May visit to China well in advance, yet Beijing held off on any official confirmation. It was only after the White House announced the visit details on May 10 that China's Foreign Ministry finally confirmed, on Monday morning May 11, that Trump would undertake a state visit from May 13 to 15.

White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly described the visit as carrying "enormous symbolic significance." She framed it around rebalancing US-China relations through reciprocity and fairness to restore America's economic independence. US officials also leaked to foreign wire agencies that the two sides are expected to announce multiple economic and trade cooperation arrangements. These include a dialogue mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment, and the possible establishment of a "Trade Commission" and an "Investment Commission" — though both mechanisms still require further detailing before they can be implemented. The officials also floated the prospect of China announcing purchases of Boeing aircraft, US agricultural products, and energy.

These leaks amount to America's wish list. US officials hammered two themes above all else: China buying more US goods, and China maintaining its supply of rare earths. That is what Washington wants most.

China's priorities, by contrast, are sharply defined. Continuing to supply rare earths is manageable. Buying more Boeing aircraft, energy, and agricultural products is not a problem either — China holds ample foreign exchange reserves. The core demands are different: curbing Taiwan independence movement is a non-negotiable priority, reducing US arms sales to Taiwan is the central issue, and the US must cut out the petty manoeuvres it uses to suppress Chinese industry and maintain stable trade relations.

Diplomatic negotiations are ultimately a test of relative position, and China currently holds the upper hand. Compare this to Trump's previous state visit to China in November 2017. Then, Trump arrived riding high — barely nine months into his first term, full of momentum, on the cusp of launching his trade suppression campaign. His demand was sweeping: China must buy American goods in bulk and commit to staying in the low-to-mid-end manufacturing ecosystem, surrendering any ambition to compete in high-tech sectors. It was, in essence, a Chinese version of the Plaza Accord. China refused. Half a year later, the trade war began.

Nine years on, the US has not crushed China. Chinese industry continues to advance across high-technology sectors. Bringing a new Plaza Accord to Beijing is simply not an option for Trump today. Three specific details show that China is controlling the pace of this summit.

First, the US announced Trump's visit early, but China waited until three days before — May 11 — to make the confirmation public. Beyond signalling that Beijing is unhurried while Washington is not, the delay carried real leverage: until the announcement was made, plans could always change.

Second, China's Ministry of Commerce announced on May 10 that Chinese and US officials would hold economic and trade consultations in South Korea on May 12 and 13 — the day before and the day of Trump's arrival in China. In past US presidential visits, all substantive issues would have been resolved weeks or months beforehand, leaving the visit itself as a celebration and signing ceremony. Holding a working economic meeting in a third country on the eve of the summit signals that core issues remain unresolved. The more eagerly US officials leak optimistic talking points, the more their lack of confidence shows.

Third, the US-Iran war is swaying the entire equation. Washington has managed only a temporary ceasefire — a formal peace treaty remains out of reach. China arranged for Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to visit Beijing on May 5, listening to Tehran's position and showing Iran a measure of respect. With the US now heavily dependent on China to broker a peace agreement, Trump enters the summit as a supplicant — and that dependence makes him even more passive.

Trump's original script read like a conquest narrative. He first invaded Venezuela, captured President Nicolás Maduro, and took control of Venezuelan oil resources. He then attacked Iran, killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and aimed to control Iran's oil supply as well — arriving in China as a conqueror on a winning streak. But Trump badly miscalculated Iran's capacity to counter-attack. The heroic script collapsed into farce. Arriving in Beijing humiliated and empty-handed, Trump will find that China isn't losing any sleep over it — when the storm hits, Beijing doesn't flinch.

Lo Wing-hung

Bastille Commentary

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American officials used to preach the "rules-based international order" at every turn. That phrase now sounds like a punchline. Add one word and it tells the truth: an international order based on American rules.

The World Cup has produced a scandal, and the United States is at the center of it. In the Round of 32 on July 1, the US beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0. But star striker Folarin Balogun stepped on an opponent's heel and picked up a red card. FIFA rules say a red card triggers a one-match ban. That should have kept Balogun out of the Round of 16 clash with Belgium on July 6.

The New York Times reports that Donald Trump got personally involved. He called FIFA President Gianni Infantino the same day. Trump argued the red card was controversial and pressed FIFA to reconsider the suspension.

FIFA folded, but with a twist. On July 5, the governing body confirmed Balogun had violated Articles 14 and 26 of its Disciplinary Code and handed down a one-match ban. Then it invoked Article 27, which allows disciplinary measures to be suspended in full or in part, to defer the ban for a year. Balogun was free to keep playing through the rest of the tournament.

The backlash was immediate and global. Trump, unmoved by the criticism, thanked FIFA for making the "correct decision" and for "correcting a grave injustice."

Belgium did not take it quietly. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot, a former referee himself, said he had spent his career upholding fair rulings. He put it bluntly: "If a phone call truly underpins this incomprehensible decision, then it amounts to undermining the most fundamental rules of football and sport." Belgium's head coach, Rudi Garcia, was even sharper. "I didn’t know that July 5 was equal to April 1 at FIFA," he said, adding that his complaint wasn't about defending Belgium or attacking FIFA. It was about "defending in football".

Other national teams piled on. England manager Thomas Tuchel asked the question everyone was thinking: "Where does this precedent begin, and where does it end?" His point cuts to the core of the scandal. Power and influence can now override sporting judgment, and a single phone call from a global superpower was enough to erase the idea of fair competition.

Maybe football still has a sense of justice. On July 6, Balogun started despite his dirty play, but Belgium still thrashed the United States 4-1. The score itself felt like a curse, a brutal callback to the tournament's own April Fool's farce.

There was a time when the United States looked both powerful and admirable, a country that was simply always right. I grew up watching American Westerns, the kind starring Clint Eastwood, where heroic cowboys gunned down "Indians" cast as savage and brutal. Even the word "Indians" carries that discrimination baked in, reducing Native Americans to "redskins". Those films erased a brutal history: European colonizers massacring Indigenous peoples across the Americas with superior weapons.

Seize the land, wipe out the people, then cast yourself as the hero. American ideology in a nutshell. Turning bloody history into entertainment and exporting it to the world is something only the United States has pulled off this well, and Hong Kong has not been spared its influence.

At the height of American power, even scandals got repackaged as virtues, seamless and airtight. That is no longer the case. As US power declines and its position weakens, the cracks are showing everywhere. A president meddling in a football ruling has now become global news. Similar things likely happened before, when America's power was unquestioned, but back then nobody dared expose them.

Lo Wing-hung