Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released on Thursday.
There is 86 percent chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, said the report.
It is very likely (91 percent chance) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline of 1850–1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
The level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was about 1.55 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline.
The five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific indicates a tendency towards El Nino conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028, said the report.
There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year, according to Dr. Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the report.
The 1.5 degree Celsius levels specified in the Paris Agreement refer to the long-term warming sustained over an extended period, typically assessed over 20 years.
Individual years with annual global mean temperatures exceeding these levels do not mean that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach.
Temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency, as the rising trends in global temperature approaches these levels, said the report.
WMO report forecasts warmest year in next 5 years
WMO report forecasts warmest year in next 5 years
