A Dutch warship sailed boldly into the waters of the Paracel Islands. What it got in return was a swift, forceful response from the PLA. Do European nations genuinely believe the South China Sea is some kind of tourist hotspot?
The Dutch warship sailed in flying the banner of "freedom of navigation." The reality is that banner amounts to a direct challenge to China's sovereignty over the South China Sea. The PLA Southern Theatre Command promptly issued a statement declaring that the vessel had "illegally intruded into the waters of China's Xisha Islands" and had "repeatedly launched its shipborne helicopter to intrude into China's territorial airspace." The result was decisive: the military drove the ship away using electronic jamming measures.
The Dutch side handled the expulsion incident with striking restraint. The Netherlands refused to disclose any details about the "interference" and made no public comment whatsoever — an unusually subdued posture that struck many observers as odd. "Freedom of navigation" operations are designed to project strength.
To be effective, they must maximise the humiliation of China at every turn. America's European allies have long operated on the assumption that China would never dare sink one of their "freedom warships."
And so they sail in and sail out, back and forth — treating the South China Sea like a picturesque Western promenade.
The numbers tell a stark story. According to the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), a Chinese Mainland military think tank, nearly 200 warships from 18 "extra-regional countries" operated in the Western Pacific in 2025 alone — with US vessels making up the majority.
Other extra-regional warships came primarily from Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. By informal estimates, the Western Pacific sees an average of around two surface vessels present each day.
The air picture is equally crowded. In the same year, extra-regional military aircraft flew more than 20,000 sorties over the Western Pacific — including fighter jets, helicopters, transport aircraft, reconnaissance planes, tankers, and bombers — again predominantly American.
In 2025, excluding the United States, six warships from four countries — Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand — transited the Taiwan Strait on five separate occasions. Notably, since 2024, the number of transits by non-US extra-regional countries has risen sharply. More European nations, along with Australia and New Zealand, are joining the rotation. Freedom of navigation operations in the Taiwan Strait are becoming routine — the transits are growing ever more frequent.
The PLA now faces a clear strategic choice. It can deliver a genuine, forceful military strike. Or it can develop a means of action that is both peaceful and measured — a tactic of deterrence without combat, one that quietly but unmistakably removes the Western Pacific, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea from the "freedom playground," while safeguarding China's sovereign interests.
The silent, seamless expulsion of the Dutch warship is likely to become a defining example of the PLA's "civilized" toolkit.
Chinese Mainland media reported that following the electronic attack, international confidence in the Dutch Navy has visibly declined, with its combat capabilities now under serious scrutiny. At the same time, observers noted that having been burned in the electronic warfare arena, European navies are likely to seize this as an opportunity to ramp up investment in areas such as hardened communications systems, electronic countermeasures, and electromagnetic resilience training.
The final verdict, however, is pessimistic about Europe's prospects: Given the sluggish pace at which Europe has developed advanced weapons systems in recent years, even if significant funding is committed, it remains uncertain when any meaningful results will materialize.
The United States suffered catastrophic blows in the Gulf during the Iran war. Its strategic assets have been squandered without restraint under President Trump. Going forward, projecting power in the Asia-Pacific will require marshalling the full strength of all its elite allies just to have any hope of containing China and securing the strategic island chain.
Yet if even America's electronic warfare capabilities proved insufficient against Iran, the prospect of facing China as an adversary is sobering. Frankly, "freedom of navigation" operations should be growing more cautious with each passing round — not less. Otherwise, playing this game all the way to a fatal miscalculation would be a very unpleasant outcome indeed.
Postscript: The Southern Theatre Command spokesperson stated that the Dutch vessel's actions "seriously infringed upon China's territorial sovereignty, maritime and air security, contravened international law and basic norms governing international relations, undermined peace and stability in the South China Sea, and were highly likely to lead to misunderstandings and misjudgments."
That language carries a veiled threat — and not without reason. China's electronic jamming capabilities are formidable. If things go wrong, aircraft could fall from the sky and warships could run aground. At that point, you will have no one to blame but yourselves.
Deep Blue
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