Pandas Sent, Rare Earth Held: China-US Summits Blanks

The real story of the China-US summit may be written in the blank spaces of the outcome statements each side issues.

Everyone knows the ostentatious, high-spec reception the United States gave President Xi Jinping was pure Trump. He is a man who bullies the weak and fawns on the strong, and perhaps he really does admire President Xi somewhat. That is why he received him with the highest courtesies.

But on substance, White House officials pull Trump back to reality. Only what can reach consensus gets announced. Anything without consensus is left blank.

Scheduling Chemicals, Sentencing People

The White House statement puts fentanyl first on its list of achievements. It stresses that China agreed to place a class of lethal opioid substances (orphines) on its controlled list.

It adds: "The United States also noted China’s new export controls on two fentanyl precursor chemicals, while strongly encouraging the permanent scheduling of these and other substances and chemicals to help stem the flow of illicit precursors to dangerous narcoterrorists in North America."

China is the world's largest producer of pharmaceutical raw materials. Fentanyl itself is a medicine. Many drug traffickers turn those raw materials into drugs, then smuggle and traffic them into the United States.

The United States wants China to sentence some of the Chinese people involved to death. That sits awkwardly with the humanitarianism Washington has long preached. In the past, the United States even asked China not to execute Americans who trafficked drugs in China, and to release them back to the United States.

But China has always sentenced drug traffickers to death. Dealing harshly with traffickers, in short, poses no great difficulty for Beijing.

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

The White House said President Trump urged President Xi Jinping to ramp up refined petroleum output to stabilize global supply. That is not a hard ask for China.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry listed one outcome: "Iran should honor its commitment to not developing nuclear weapons, and no country or institution can be allowed to impose tolls on international waterways."

Voice of America said China has good relations with Iran. China not only agreed with President Trump's position that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons, but also listed it as the third major outcome of the summit. That, VOA said, is a major breakthrough.

But China has never supported Iran possessing nuclear weapons, and it advocates resolving the Iran nuclear issue through political and diplomatic channels. There is nothing new in that point.

What is truly new is the line that "no country or institution can be allowed to impose tolls on international waterways." China also did not support Iran charging fees for navigation through the international shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz in the past.

But Trump previously said that if Iran charges fees, the United States would also charge fees. This is tantamount to Trump agreeing to no longer say that the United States will also charge fees for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trade: Unspoken Rare Earth Lever

China and the United States agreed to push the "China-US Trade Committee" and the "China-US Investment Committee" into actual operation. Under the trade committee framework, the two countries reached consensus on a proposal to grant each other more preferential tariff treatment on US$30 billion of non-sensitive goods.

The US$30 billion of US exports that enjoy preferential tariffs include agricultural products, fish and seafood, logs and wood products, cosmetics, and medical devices. The US$30 billion of Chinese exports that enjoy preferential tariffs include consumer goods such as small home appliances, toys, holiday decorations, and children's car safety seats.

The US side boasted that China will buy an additional 10 million metric tons of US coal each year going forward, and that it will remove barriers to agricultural market access. According to the Ministry of Commerce's explanation, this is in fact entirely covered within the framework of China's US$30 billion in reciprocal goods imports.

In addition, what the Chinese statement did not mention is rare earths. The US statement said the United States and China will continue working to address US concerns about shortages in the supply chain for rare earths and other critical minerals, with the goal of ensuring that transportation volumes for relevant goods return to an appropriate level.

The Chinese statement did not mention this at all. It is believed that China is retaining control over rare earths as leverage on the Taiwan issue.

Taiwan Left Blank, Japan Stung

Neither side's statement mentioned the Taiwan issue.

Bonnie Glaser, executive director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, a US think tank, said the two sides appear to have more differences than consensus on the Taiwan issue.

But VOA also cited some commentators who argue that President Trump has already shelved $14 billion in arms sales to Taiwan and is unwilling to bring the issue up again. The Chinese side, they suggest, may also want to avoid pushing too hard and straining the relationship between Xi Jinping and Trump.

On Japan, however, the US side is believed to have taken a position at China's request.

One outcome China listed was this: "The two leaders recalled that (the) United States and China were allies in World War II and fought side by side to win the war."

Those two sentences hit Japan very painfully.

Pageantry Over Progress, China Comes Out Ahead

Overall, the two sides produced no groundbreaking new agreement. Danny Russel, who served as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the Obama administration, put it bluntly: the two leaders spent more time on social and ceremonial activities than on actual talks, and the closed-door meeting lasted about 90 minutes.

Russel's verdict: "Pageantry and protocol don't add up to progress. Pandas are cute, but what America needs are rare earths,"

China clearly gained more than the United States. The reception standards were extraordinarily high, and they overawed U.S. allies such as Japan and Europe. But the summit's most practical achievement was simpler: against a backdrop of deep China-US hostility, the two sides introduced no new confrontational measures.

The summary of the China-US outcomes did not mention Taiwan, and China's summary did not mention rare earths. That reflects President Xi's care for Trump's feelings after Trump backed down on the Taiwan issue, and his reluctance to push too hard. The United States has already shelved the US$14 billion arms sale to Taiwan anyway.

China sent two pandas and held back a rare earth card. It knows you're not going anywhere.

Lo Wing-hung

Bastille Commentary

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

The most telling detail in President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States was his expression management.

Xi's Controlled Face

US President Donald Trump gave Xi a reception of exceptionally high protocol. He went personally to Andrews Air Force Base to greet him. It was a courtesy not seen in 62 years and a break with US diplomatic convention.

In the footage, Trump and First Lady Melania stood at the bottom of the airstairs of Xi's special plane, waiting respectfully for Xi and First Lady Peng Liyuan to step off.

The leaders of US allies who had been berated mercilessly by Trump in the Oval Office and left trembling must have had complicated feelings watching that scene.

I paid special attention to Xi Jinping's expression throughout the visit. It stayed relatively solemn. He smiled occasionally, but the smiles were quite restrained. The contrast with other foreign leaders meeting Trump was glaring.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had come to the United States just a few days earlier. Not a single US government official went to the airport to meet her. Yet her expression as she waved at the empty air was 100 times happier than Xi.

I believe this is a form of expression management by Xi.

It takes me back to 2017, after Trump took office. In April that year, President Xi made his first visit to the United States. Trump even specially introduced his granddaughter Arabella, who sang the Chinese song 'Mo Li Hua' (Jasmine Flower) to Xi and recited the 'Three Character Classic' in Mandarin.

It was originally a rather endearing scene. But Xi gave only a very restrained, polite smile and showed no excitement. At the time, I already detected a serious expression on his face. He sensed that China-US relations were not so good, and it seemed to foreshadow the China-US trade war that would start a year later, in 2018.

Now the United States is welcoming Xi's visit with exceptionally high protocol. But China seems to be telling everyone: this is as far as China-US relationship can get. Differences can be managed, no military conflict breaks out, and economic and trade disputes are kept to a minimum. Good enough.

That leaves time. Time for us to focus on the major tasks: developing the country, strengthening the economy, and making breakthroughs in science and technology.

Just Panda Diplomacy

It is entirely consistent with President Xi remarks in his talks with Trump.

Xi said: "We do not need to avoid mentioning competition, but our competition should be a healthy one and should be kept within bounds. It should be a race of catching up with one another, not a wrestle in which one either wins or loses. China and the United States must hold the line of no conflict and no confrontation between us."

"We can certainly find the right path for our two great countries to get along on this planet we both call home. Our two militaries should maintain regular dialogue, and improve mechanisms for crisis communication and prevention. The Thucydides Trap can be overcome"

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/zyxw/202609/t20260924_12030982.html

Competition is the underlying tone of China-US relations, so no one should expect President Xi's visit to produce any major agreements.

The economic and trade committee Trump mentioned was already raised when he visited China in May. Launching an AI dialogue is indeed a new development, but it is not a big deal.

The stronger signal was Xi's gift of two giant pandas, Ping Ping and Fu Shuang, to Zoo Atlanta. A clear friendly gesture.

It carries little substance, but it can still strengthen friendship between the two peoples.

The American public feels this intuitively.

After President Richard Nixon visited China in 1972, China gave the United States the giant pandas Ling Ling and Hsing-Hsing. But when China-US relations turned extremely poor, the panda gift program stopped.

Now that China has resumed sending pandas to the United States, it is also a courteous reciprocation of Trump's ultra-high-standard welcome ceremony.

What truly deserves attention is the reaction from around the world.

Taiwan Takes the Hardest Hit

First, Taiwan.

Taiwan takes the hardest blow. Xinhua has explicitly stated that China raised the Taiwan issue directly during the two leaders' meeting.

In the past, when President Xi met Joe Biden, or Trump before that, he urged them not to support Taiwan independence, or explained the dangers of Taiwan independence. This time, Xi directly told Trump that he hoped the US would adhere to the "correct position" of opposing Taiwan independence.

Taiwanese media read the move as the mainland raising its bar.

China wants to halt the $14 billion US arms sale to Taiwan. Under this China-US relationship, US arms sales to Taiwan can only remain suspended.

Some people ask me whether war will break out in the Taiwan Strait. I say under Trump's rule, even a formalistic improvement in China-US relations can lead to his support for Taiwan falling sharply.

Last year, when Trump returned to office, three US warships still transited the Taiwan Strait in 2025. This year, the number is zero.

Taiwan has lost US support, and the voice of the Lai Ching-te government has also grown quieter.

Japan: A Pawn Discarded

Second, Japan.

Japan has always been America's pawn in East Asia.

As China-US relations soured in recent years, especially with the Biden-era Quadrilateral Security Dialogue involving the United States, Japan, India and Australia, Japan stepped out to provoke China.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi knew President Xi's visit would get high-level treatment. So she moved her trip to the United Nations General Assembly in New York several days earlier, trying to force Trump to meet her first.

In the end, they met for only half an hour. Takaichi beamed from ear to ear, and her expression became a hot topic online in Japan.

If Trump had welcomed Takaichi with the same protocol he rolled out for President Xi, she would probably have to write a book as soon as she got home.

But reality is clear: Japan has become a discarded pawn.

Under Trump's new Monroe Doctrine, he will shift America's focus back to the Western Hemisphere. Japan's only role is to invest heavily in the United States or buy more American arms.

If you want to oppose China, go do it yourself.

Europe's Offside Trap

Third, Europe.

Europe finds itself in an extremely awkward spot.

France's Le Monde said on September 23 that China now has the upper hand. The paper pointed out that under current trends, China's global trade surplus is expected to exceed one trillion US dollars for the second consecutive year.

When China and the United States held an artificial intelligence dialogue, European media noticed one thing: only China could sit at that table and negotiate with the United States.

Now Europe is imitating the United States. It is vowing to invoke "Section 301" tariffs on China to balance the China-Europe trade deficit.

Even the mighty United States launched a tariff war against China last year. It came away battered and bruised.

Europe played the fool by following the United States in opposing China. Now it has fallen into an offside trap.

The Bigger Opening

President Xi's visit to the United States this time was a show. But the global situation is tilting in a direction more favorable to our country.

That situation is creating a peaceful space for us. We can use that space to work hard for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Lo Wing Hung