The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Thursday that global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2026, up from its March forecast of 1.9 percent, driven by supply chain adaptation and strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI).
"Given stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, world merchandise trade volumes are expected to grow by 3.9 [percent] in 2026, almost double the 1.9 increase foreseen in the baseline scenario in the March forecast. Merchandise trade growth is further expected to pick up slightly to 4.1 percent in 2027," WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill told a press conference held at the WTO headquarters in Geneva.
While revising up the forecast for merchandise trade growth, the WTO's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report lowered the outlook for commercial services trade in 2026 over the impact of the Middle East conflict.
The forecast for services trade volume growth in 2026 has been revised down to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March.
In 2027, growth rates in volume terms for merchandise and services trade are expected to rise to 4.1 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively, depending on a timely resolution of the Middle East conflict, the report said.
In the report, the WTO projected global GDP growth at 2.6 percent and 2.9 percent in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the figures "reflect trade resilience in action."
Hill said that while the system has proven resilient, that does not necessarily mean it is robust, calling for global efforts to strengthen the multilateral trading system to help ensure that the global economy is better equipped to deal with future shocks.
According to the report, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent in the first half of 2026, exceeding expectations despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict.
The performance reflected the ability of supply chains to adapt to shocks affecting energy, fertilizer and transport markets, the report noted.
The report showed that crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by roughly 24 percent and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 47 percent in the first half of 2026. But increased shipments from other suppliers helped limit the decline in global exports to around 6 percent for crude oil and just 1 percent for LNG. Fertilizer markets also adjusted despite severe disruption, the report said.
Another factor contributing to the higher merchandise trade growth forecast is "a stronger-than-expected" surge in AI-related capital investment, said the report.
In the first half of 2026, AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth, with trade in these products going up 67 percent year-on-year, accelerating from already rapid growth in 2024 and 2025.
As the Middle East conflict disrupted transport and travel services, services trade growth slowed from 14 percent year-on-year in value terms in the first quarter of 2026 to 10 percent in the second quarter, the report showed.
It noted that other services, especially digitally delivered services such as computer and financial services exports, remained resilient and continued to support overall services trade growth.
WTO revises up 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast
The People's Bank of China (PBOC), in outlining its policy stance on the RMB exchange rate on Thursday, said that China has no need and no intention to gain a trade competitive advantage by devaluing the RMB.
The PBOC said that China's trade development is rooted in the improvement of its industries' international competitiveness. It added that, apart from China, some other economies have also seen rapid export growth because their products meet international demand, not because of currency depreciation.
The central bank noted that multiple rounds of RMB appreciation in the past did not hinder China's trade development, nor did China's export share rise faster during periods of depreciation.
"For example, from 2005 to 2008 the RMB appreciated 21 percent against the U.S. dollar. From 2010 to 2014 it appreciated 10 percent. And from 2020 to 2021 it appreciated 9 percent. Over those same periods, China's share of global exports rose by 2.4, 2.8 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively. But when the RMB depreciated 7 percent against the dollar in 2016, and fell more than 8 percent in 2022, China's share of global exports fell by 0.7 percentage points in both periods," said Dong Ximiao, chief economist at Merchants Union Consumer Finance. Moreover, a key structural shift in China's trade in recent years has been a marked decline in its sensitivity to exchange rate movements.
Guan Tao, chief economist at Huafu Securities, said that from the perspective of trade structure, China's export structure has been upgrading and transforming from being dominated by low-end, labor-intensive products to mid- to high-end and diversified products. From the perspective of trade-related financial services, foreign trade firms are making greater use of exchange rate hedging tools. About 30 percent of trade is settled in RMB, and the proportion of firms using forex hedging has also reached around 30 percent, further reducing trade's sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. These ratios are expected to rise further in the future. China, as a responsible major country, has never engaged in competitive currency devaluation during multiple rounds of intense external shocks, and has never pushed the RMB lower to promote exports. In recent years, the countries concerned have launched trade wars, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has sharply accelerated its rate hikes, putting broad depreciation pressure on non-dollar currencies. The PBOC took timely macro-prudential measures to prevent an overshoot in RMB depreciation.
Furthermore, the trading volume of the global foreign exchange market is so massive that it is difficult to continuously intervene in and influence the market, said the central bank.
"In 2025, average daily global forex market turnover was nearly 10 trillion U.S. dollars. The RMB's average daily forex trading volume exceeded 800 billion U.S. dollars, with offshore market trading accounting for about 80 percent. Every transaction is influencing the exchange rate. The central bank basically does not have the capacity to intervene in a way that determines medium- to long-term exchange-rate trends, and no country can sustainably enhance trade competitiveness simply by keeping its exchange rate artificially low over the long term," said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank.
China has no intention to seek trade advantage through weaker RMB: central bank
China has no intention to seek trade advantage through weaker RMB: central bank
