The Western media has often declared "Hong Kong is dead," much like the "China collapse” theory. However, Hong Kong remains resilient, while those who predicted its downfall have faded away. Similarly, China has not collapsed, and foreign governments that anticipated its downfall are collapsing faster.
In 1995, two years before Hong Kong's handover, Fortune magazine published an article by its Asian correspondent, Louis Kraar, claiming that post-1997, Hong Kong's future would be bleak. The cover declared "The Death of Hong Kong", predicting Beijing's control over the Hong Kong government, the replacement of English language with Mandarin, and the People's Liberation Army “which has already formed links with the powerful local criminal gangs known as ‘triads’ strolling the streets, foreign businesses leaving because of unfair treatments, and Hong Kong dollar de-linked with US dollars. This dire prediction ignited global attention.
Twelve years later, in 2007, Fortune's sister publication, Time magazine, refuted this conclusion. In a 25-page report marking the 10th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover, Time acknowledged that Fortune had "badly and wrongly predicted" Hong Kong's demise. The article noted, "Hong Kong is more vibrant than ever."
Unfortunately, Louis Kraar passed away in 2006 at the age of 71, and thus did not witness Hong Kong's repeated recoveries from adversity.
Recently, Hong Kong has experienced a series of pleasant events, including the historic winning of two Olympic gold medals and the birth of twin pandas to Ying Ying at the age equivalent to 57 human years. Some attribute Hong Kong's success to good fortune, but there are deeper factors at play.
Geographical Advantage: Located at the edge of the Pearl River Estuary, Hong Kong has a natural deep-water harbor. It’s position also makes it an aviation hub and a crucial place for exchange and interaction between China and the West.
Take a look around the world, all dynamic cities are built on critical locations by the sea. With our Motherland functions as our hinterland, we have become the hub that connects the world.
A Strong System: "One country, two systems" is the key to Hong Kong's long-term success. The country has seen the rise of mega cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, with population size and economic scale larger than that of Hong Kong. Hong Kong has no way to compete with those big guys if we are under the same system. However, the “two systems” sets us apart and Hong Kong can now maintains its advantage and fulfill its special role as a bridge to the outside world.
But of course we cannot just count on “two systems” and ignore the “one country” factor. Hong Kong has survived political turmoil only because of the stabilizing force demonstrated by the Central Government at critical moments.
Hong Kong's Spirit: Ultimately, Hong Kong's success relies on its people and its “Can do” spirit. Despite limited resources, Hong Kong's population is hardworking and resilient, believing that even a small place like Hong Kong can achieve extraordinary success.
Chief Executive John Lee recently repeated the remarks made by some visionary investors that those who bet against Hong Kong's long-term prospects will ultimately lose. Although we must not lose sight of the current challenges including the impact of U.S. interest rate hikes and the less-than-exciting business atmosphere, history shows that Hong Kong repeatedly overcomes difficulties. Therefore, betting against Hong Kong is unwise.
Wing-hung Lo
Bastille Commentary
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
Trump's Venezuela play just gave Western progressives a masterclass in American hypocrisy.
Steve Bannon, Trump's longtime strategist, told The New York Times the Venezuela assault—arresting President Nicolás Maduro and all—stands as this administration's most consequential foreign policy move. Meticulously planned, Bannon concedes, but woefully short on ideological groundwork. "The lack of framing of the message on a potential occupation has the base bewildered, if not angry".
Trump's rationale for nabbing Maduro across international borders was drug trafficking. But here's the tell: once Maduro was in custody, Trump stopped talking about Venezuelan cocaine and started obsessing over Venezuelan oil. He's demanding US oil companies march back into Venezuela to seize control of local assets. And that's not all—he wants Venezuela to cough up 50 million barrels of oil.
Trump's Colonial Playbook
On January 6, Trump unveiled his blueprint: Venezuela releases 50 million barrels to the United States. America sells it. Market watchers peg the haul at roughly $2.8 billion.
Trump then gleefully mapped out how the proceeds would flow—only to "American-made products." He posted on social media: "These purchases will include, among other things, American Agricultural Products, and American Made Medicines, Medical Devices, and Equipment to improve Venezuela's Electric Grid and Energy Facilities. In other words, Venezuela is committing to doing business with the United States of America as their principal partner."
Trump's demand for 50 million barrels up front—not a massive volume, granted—betrays a blunt short-term goal. It's the classic imperial playbook: invade a colony, plunder its resources, sail home and parade the spoils before your supporters to justify the whole bloody enterprise. Trump isn't chasing the ideological legitimacy Bannon mentioned. He's after something more primal: material legitimacy. Show me a colonial power that didn't loot minerals or enslave labor from its colonies.
America's Western allies were silent as the grave when faced with such dictatorial swagger. But pivot the camera to Hong Kong, and suddenly they're all righteous indignation.
The British Double Standard
Recently, former Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith penned an op-ed in The Times, slamming the British government for doing "nothing but issuing 'strongly worded' statements in the face of Beijing's trampling of the Sino-British Joint Declaration." He's calling on the Labour government to sanction the three designated National Security Law judges who convicted Apple Daily founder Jimmy Lai of "collusion with foreign forces"—to prove that "Hong Kong's judiciary has become a farce." Duncan Smith even vowed to raise the matter for debate in the British Parliament.
The Conservatives sound principled enough. But think it through, and it's laughable. The whole world's talking about Maduro right now—nobody's talking about Jimmy Lai anymore.
Maduro appeared in US Federal Court in New York on January 6. The United States has trampled international law and the UN Charter—that's what Duncan Smith would call "American justice becoming a farce." If Duncan Smith's so formidable, why doesn't he demand the British government sanction Trump? Why not sanction the New York Federal Court judges? If he wants to launch a parliamentary debate, why not urgently debate America's crimes in invading Venezuela? Duncan Smith's double standards are chilling.
Silence on Venezuela
After the Venezuela incident, I searched extensively online—even deployed AI—but couldn't find a single comment from former Conservative leader Duncan Smith on America's invasion of Venezuela. Duncan Smith has retreated into his shell.
Duncan Smith is fiercely pro-US. When Trump visited the UK last September amid considerable domestic criticism, the opposition Conservatives didn't just stay quiet—Duncan Smith actively defended him, calling Trump's unprecedented second UK visit critically important: "if the countries that believe in freedom, democracy and the rule of law don’t unite, the totalitarian states… will dominate the world and it will be a terrible world to live in."
The irony cuts deep now. America forcibly seizes another country's oil and minerals—Trump is fundamentally an imperialist dictator. With Duncan Smith's enthusiastic backing, this totalitarian Trump has truly won.
Incidentally, the Conservative Party has completely destroyed itself. The party commanding the highest support in Britain today is the far-right Reform Party. As early as last May, YouGov polling showed Reform Party capturing the highest support at 29%, the governing Labour Party languishing at just 22%, the Liberal Democrats ranking third at 17%, and the Conservatives degraded to fourth place with 16% support.
The gutless Conservative Party members fear offending Trump, while voters flock to the Reform Party instead. The Conservatives' posturing shows they've become petty villains for nothing.
Lo Wing-hung
