Ken McCallum, Director General of MI5, highlighted that while China remains a "major risk," a more nuanced approach is necessary given the complex and multi-dimensional relationship between the UK and China.
According to China’s Observers Network, citing a Reuters report, McCallum delivered MI5's annual threat assessment at a press conference in London on October 8. He reported that since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, more than 750 Russian diplomats have been expelled from Europe, which has considerably weakened Russia’s intelligence capabilities. “Expel them, shut them out,” he declared.
Addressing Iran, McCallum warned of an escalating threat to the UK, describing it as growing at an "unprecedented scale and speed." Since January 2022, MI5 and British police have thwarted 20 Iranian-backed plots posing potentially lethal threats to UK citizens.
In contrast, McCallum’s remarks on China were notably more measured. Politico, a US-based news outlet, noted that McCallum remarked, “China is different.” He explained that the economic ties between China and the UK are integral to Britain’s growth and, consequently, its security.
Nevertheless, McCallum reiterated that China remains “a major risk,” emphasizing the need for careful management of certain aspects of the bilateral relationship. When questioned about the perceived "lack of criticism" toward China, he clarified that he was not minimizing the severity of the Chinese threat, asserting that MI5’s focus “remains unchanged.” He added, “The decisions are complex, and it is up to ministers to make strategic judgments regarding our relationship with China.”
McCallum also highlighted the growing threat of terrorism, particularly from al-Qaida and ISIS. “Although ISIS is not as strong as it was a decade ago, after years of suppression, they have resumed efforts to export terrorism,” he stated, referencing the terrorist attack at a Moscow concert hall in March as a “brutal demonstration of that capability.”
Notably, the UK’s new Labour government appears to be indicating a shift in its China policy. On October 9, Reuters reported, citing four sources, that British Foreign Minister David Lammy plans to visit China next week, aiming to reset UK-China relations. Additionally, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is also considering a visit in the near future to restart what was intended to be annual trade and investment discussions between the two countries.
British officials quoted by Reuters indicated that the Labour government seeks to rectify the previous administration's overly confrontational approach towards China while acknowledging that fundamental differences persist in certain areas.
Mao Ning, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reiterated on July 5 that China’s stance on UK relations remains consistent and clear. As permanent members of the UN Security Council and major global economies, stable and mutually beneficial relations between China and the UK are fundamentally in the interests of both nations. Such relations, she noted, also enable the two countries to jointly address global challenges and promote peace and development. China, she stated, is willing to work with the UK to maintain positive bilateral relations based on mutual respect and cooperation.
Deep Throat
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
The recent Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit concluded successfully, ushering in a new chapter in China-Africa relations. Over the three-day summit, China established or upgraded strategic partnerships with 30 African nations, significantly enhancing bilateral cooperation. However, around the same time, the U.S. Embassy in China put forward a series of "Prosper Africa" initiatives, implying that only the United States could bring true prosperity to Africa. In reality, the largest share of Africa’s debt burden originates from private creditors in the United States and other Western countries. This raises the question: Who is truly responsible for Africa's so-called "debt trap," and who is reaping the benefits from Africa's development?
A recent program aired by CCTV offered a vivid illustration of the "debt trap," using the analogy of a watermelon and rubber bands to depict how Africa has become ensnared in a vicious cycle of debt.
In this analogy, each rubber band represents $10 million in foreign debt, and the watermelon symbolizes a developing African nation. Faced with a shortage of domestic capital and an urgent need for development, the country can only borrow from abroad. Under credit ratings assigned by Western institutions, the country is rated a mere B, indicating weak repayment capacity and high credit risk. As a result, it is compelled to borrow at elevated interest rates, paying much higher interest than countries with better credit ratings.
The African nation is burdened with the dual obligation of repaying both the principal and accumulating interest each year. As it attempts to meet these obligations, the metaphorical watermelon is constricted by more and more rubber bands, representing the mounting debt. When the country's GDP grows slowly during this period, its debt remains within a manageable range relative to GDP.
However, the situation deteriorates when Western credit rating agencies downgrade the country's rating further, triggering even higher interest rates on its existing loans. For instance, in one year, the nation struggles to repay $2.8 billion in foreign debt, of which $1.6 billion is principal and $1.2 billion is interest. Despite its efforts, the overall debt continues to grow, reaching $38 billion, or 68% of its GDP. The rising interest rates compel the nation to borrow more simply to service existing debts, perpetuating a cycle of borrowing and repayment.
Over the past decade, this African country's credit rating has steadily declined, while its foreign debt has tripled. Meanwhile, its interest burden has increased sixfold, although GDP has only doubled. The country in question is Kenya, frequently cited in Western media as an example of the so-called "debt trap," with a focus on China’s role in its debt.
Tang Xiaoyang, Director of International Relations at Tsinghua University, elaborates further: following a credit downgrade, rating agencies label the country as a higher risk, which raises borrowing costs through increased interest rates and shortened repayment terms. This imposes immense financial pressure, leading to further credit downgrades—a vicious cycle of debt ensues.
In the debt structure of African nations, private debt accounts for 43% of total liabilities, with the majority of this debt held by private investment firms from the United States and other Western countries. These exorbitant interest rates are what drive African nations into a debt trap, yet the West shifts the blame onto China for Africa's debt challenges. While China and Africa embark on new rounds of cooperation, the U.S. promotes its so-called "Prosper Africa" initiative. But the question remains: Who is truly prospering from this “initiative”?
This brings us to a critical point: Is the West genuinely committed to Africa's prosperity, or is it profiting from Africa's debt burden?
Some Western media claimed that during the China-Africa forum, China promised financial support while avoiding addressing the debt crisis and calls for debt reduction. In response, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning refuted these claims at a press conference.
Mao Ning quoted Foreign Minister Wang Yi, stating that since its establishment 24 years ago, the China-Africa Cooperation Forum has played a crucial role in promoting Africa's development and improving the lives of its people. It has facilitated the construction and upgrading of nearly 100,000 kilometers of roads, over 10,000 kilometers of railways, nearly 1,000 bridges, and close to 100 ports across Africa. In just the past three years, Chinese companies have created more than 1.1 million jobs in Africa. These developments contribute significantly to overcoming Africa's developmental challenges and addressing its debt issues.
Mao Ning reiterated that China is never a major creditor to Africa. According to World Bank data, multilateral and private creditors account for 80% of Africa’s external debt, with bilateral debt representing a small fraction. Despite this, China has consistently helped African countries alleviate debt repayment pressures through both bilateral and multilateral mechanisms and is the largest contributor to the G20 debt suspension initiative. In the Action Plan adopted at the summit, China introduced concrete debt relief measures. China also called on the international community, particularly developed nations and international financial institutions, to take responsibility and assist African countries in reducing their debt burdens and achieving sustainable development.
