On November 1, CNBC reported an unprecedented wave of affluent Americans preparing to leave the United States following the presidential election, driven by fears of political and social instability, regardless of the winner. This growing uncertainty has intensified interest in securing second passports or long-term overseas residency.
Dominic Volek, Head of Private Clients at Henley & Partners—a global consultancy specializing in residence and citizenship planning—revealed that Americans have become the firm's largest client base, now accounting for 20% of total clients. “We have never witnessed demand of this magnitude,” Volek stated, adding that the number of Americans making emigration plans has surged by at least 30% compared to last year.
David Lesperance, Managing Partner at Lesperance & Associates, a firm specializing in international tax and immigration law, observed a similar trend. He reported that inquiries from Americans about potential relocation have nearly tripled over the past year.
A recent survey by Arton Capital indicates that 53% of U.S. millionaires are considering emigration after the election, irrespective of the outcome. This inclination is notably stronger among younger millionaires; 64% of those aged 18 to 29 are highly interested in obtaining a “golden visa” through foreign investment programs.
Interest among wealthy Americans in acquiring second passports or overseas residency has existed since the COVID-19 pandemic, often for non-political reasons like retirement or travel convenience. However, CNBC emphasizes that the approaching election and a volatile political climate have accelerated the search for what many describe as a “Plan B.”
Lesperance, who has advised clients for nearly three decades, explained that while tax avoidance has historically driven emigration interest, current motivations now include political instability and fears of violence. Some clients have expressed reluctance to live in a “MAGAed America,” while others worry about potential unrest if former President Donald Trump loses or about Vice President Kamala Harris's proposed wealth tax policy.
Currently, the US levies capital gains taxes only upon the sale of assets. Kamala Harris's proposal seeks to tax unrealized capital gains for individuals with a net worth exceeding $100 million. Despite skepticism among tax experts regarding the likelihood of such legislation passing, even with a Democratic congressional majority, Lesperance stressed that the perceived risk has motivated high-net-worth individuals to seek financial “insurance” through alternative residency options.
Beyond political concerns, factors such as escalating school shootings, the potential for political violence, and rising instances of antisemitism, Islamophobia, and xenophobia are also prompting affluent Americans to consider relocating. Concerns over ballooning federal debt have further fuelled this trend.
As for preferred destinations, Henley & Partners and Arton Capital noted that Europe remains the primary choice for wealthy Americans considering relocation. Popular destinations include European nations such as Portugal, Malta, Greece, Spain, and Italy. However, soaring property prices, driven by foreign investment, have led some governments to tighten rules and increase thresholds for citizenship-by-investment programs. As a result, Caribbean countries like Antigua and Barbuda and Saint Lucia have emerged as attractive alternatives. In Antigua and Barbuda, a $300,000 investment in approved real estate can grant citizenship, offering visa-free access to destinations such as Hong Kong, Russia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and much of Europe.
Americans with ancestral ties to countries like Ireland or Italy can pursue “citizenship by descent,” a cost-effective option compared to investor visas. Additionally, nations like Portugal offer retirement visas, which provide residency and a pathway to citizenship.
Nevertheless, the process of acquiring foreign citizenship or residency can be protracted, involving extensive background checks and bureaucratic delays. CNBC noted that depending on the US election results, already considerable waiting periods may become even longer, potentially extending for months or years.
Deep Throat
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Trump wasted not one second after US forces grabbed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. He made it clear that he was eyeing the country's oil riches. But here's the catch: America's biggest oil companies aren't biting. Industry analysts confirm what the companies won't say publicly—even if these firms wanted back in, Venezuela's crumbling infrastructure and chaos on the ground mean Trump's fantasy of quick oil profits is far from easy to come true.
Trump promises Big Oil will pour billions into Venezuela. The oil giants say they never got the memo. AP Photo
Minutes after the military operation wrapped, Trump stood at a press conference making promises. Major American oil companies would pour into Venezuela, he declared, investing billions to fix the country's shattered oil infrastructure "and start making money for the country". Meanwhile, he reiterated that the US embargo on all Venezuelan oil remains in full effect.
Those sanctions have crushed Venezuelan exports into paralysis. Documents from Venezuela's state oil company and sources close to the situation confirm storage tanks and floating facilities filled up fast over recent weeks. Multiple oil fields now face forced production cuts.
White House Courts Reluctant Executives
Reuters revealed the Trump administration plans meetings this week with executives from major US oil companies. The agenda: pushing these firms to restore and grow oil production in Venezuela following the military action. The White House sees this as a critical step toward getting American oil giants back into the country to tap the world's largest proven oil reserves.
But Trump's eagerness hasn't translated into corporate enthusiasm. Several major US oil companies are taking a wait-and-see approach, watching Venezuela closely. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron all denied any prior communication with the White House about Venezuela. This directly contradicts Trump's claim over the weekend that he had already met with "all" US oil firms both before and after Maduro's capture.
Venezuela sits on roughly 17% of the world's proven oil reserves—first place globally. Yet US sanctions and other pressures have gutted its production capacity. Current output runs around 1 million barrels daily, barely 0.8% of global crude production.
World's largest oil reserves, strangled by US sanctions. Trump's quick-profit scheme hits a hard reality. AP Photo
Only One Company Stays Put
Chevron remains the sole major US oil company still operating Venezuelan fields. The firm has worked in Venezuela for over a century, producing heavy crude that feeds refineries along the Gulf Coast and beyond. A company spokesperson said on the 3rd that the current priority centers on "ensuring employee safety, well-being, and asset integrity," adding they "will continue to operate in accordance with laws and regulations."
ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips previously invested in Venezuela. In the 1970s, the Venezuelan government nationalized the oil industry, reopened to foreign investment by century's end, then demanded in 2007 that Western companies developing oil fields form joint ventures with Venezuelan firms under Venezuelan control. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips pulled out. Neither company has responded to Trump's latest remarks about US capital entering Venezuela.
One oil industry executive told Reuters that companies fear discussing potential Venezuelan business at White House-organized meetings due to antitrust concerns.
Benefits Flow to First Mover
Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, expects Chevron would likely benefit first if Venezuela opens oil projects to the US. Other oil companies, he notes, will watch Venezuela's political situation closely and observe the operating environment and contract compliance before making moves.
Mark Christian, business director at an Oklahoma energy consulting firm, lays out the baseline: US companies will only return to Venezuela if they're certain of investment returns and receive at least minimal security guarantees. Lifting sanctions on Venezuela stands as a prerequisite for US companies re-entering that market.
Reality Check on Oil Profits
Even with sanctions lifted, the Trump administration won't find making money from invasion-acquired oil that easy.
Industry insiders admit large-scale restoration of Venezuelan oil production demands years of time and billions in investment, while confronting major obstacles: dilapidated infrastructure, uncertain political prospects, legal risks, and long-term US policy uncertainty.
Peter McNally, global head of industry analysis at Third Bridge, said, "There are still many questions that need to be answered about the state of the Venezuelan oil industry, but it is clear that it will take tens of billions of dollars to turn that industry around." He then added that it could take at least a decade of Western oil majors committing to the country.
Ed Hirs, an energy expert at the University of Houston, pointed to a pattern: US military invasions of other countries in recent years haven't delivered substantial returns to American companies. The history of Iraq and Libya may repeat itself in Venezuela.
