Record numbers of wealthy Americans plan to flee the US after election, reports reveal

On November 1, CNBC reported an unprecedented wave of affluent Americans preparing to leave the United States following the presidential election, driven by fears of political and social instability, regardless of the winner. This growing uncertainty has intensified interest in securing second passports or long-term overseas residency.

Dominic Volek, Head of Private Clients at Henley & Partners—a global consultancy specializing in residence and citizenship planning—revealed that Americans have become the firm's largest client base, now accounting for 20% of total clients. “We have never witnessed demand of this magnitude,” Volek stated, adding that the number of Americans making emigration plans has surged by at least 30% compared to last year.

David Lesperance, Managing Partner at Lesperance & Associates, a firm specializing in international tax and immigration law, observed a similar trend. He reported that inquiries from Americans about potential relocation have nearly tripled over the past year.

A recent survey by Arton Capital indicates that 53% of U.S. millionaires are considering emigration after the election, irrespective of the outcome. This inclination is notably stronger among younger millionaires; 64% of those aged 18 to 29 are highly interested in obtaining a “golden visa” through foreign investment programs.

Interest among wealthy Americans in acquiring second passports or overseas residency has existed since the COVID-19 pandemic, often for non-political reasons like retirement or travel convenience. However, CNBC emphasizes that the approaching election and a volatile political climate have accelerated the search for what many describe as a “Plan B.”

Lesperance, who has advised clients for nearly three decades, explained that while tax avoidance has historically driven emigration interest, current motivations now include political instability and fears of violence. Some clients have expressed reluctance to live in a “MAGAed America,” while others worry about potential unrest if former President Donald Trump loses or about Vice President Kamala Harris's proposed wealth tax policy.

Currently, the US levies capital gains taxes only upon the sale of assets. Kamala Harris's proposal seeks to tax unrealized capital gains for individuals with a net worth exceeding $100 million. Despite skepticism among tax experts regarding the likelihood of such legislation passing, even with a Democratic congressional majority, Lesperance stressed that the perceived risk has motivated high-net-worth individuals to seek financial “insurance” through alternative residency options.

Beyond political concerns, factors such as escalating school shootings, the potential for political violence, and rising instances of antisemitism, Islamophobia, and xenophobia are also prompting affluent Americans to consider relocating. Concerns over ballooning federal debt have further fuelled this trend.

As for preferred destinations, Henley & Partners and Arton Capital noted that Europe remains the primary choice for wealthy Americans considering relocation. Popular destinations include European nations such as Portugal, Malta, Greece, Spain, and Italy. However, soaring property prices, driven by foreign investment, have led some governments to tighten rules and increase thresholds for citizenship-by-investment programs. As a result, Caribbean countries like Antigua and Barbuda and Saint Lucia have emerged as attractive alternatives. In Antigua and Barbuda, a $300,000 investment in approved real estate can grant citizenship, offering visa-free access to destinations such as Hong Kong, Russia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and much of Europe.

Americans with ancestral ties to countries like Ireland or Italy can pursue “citizenship by descent,” a cost-effective option compared to investor visas. Additionally, nations like Portugal offer retirement visas, which provide residency and a pathway to citizenship.

Nevertheless, the process of acquiring foreign citizenship or residency can be protracted, involving extensive background checks and bureaucratic delays. CNBC noted that depending on the US election results, already considerable waiting periods may become even longer, potentially extending for months or years.

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Ken McCallum, Director General of MI5, highlighted that while China remains a "major risk," a more nuanced approach is necessary given the complex and multi-dimensional relationship between the UK and China.

According to China’s Observers Network, citing a Reuters report, McCallum delivered MI5's annual threat assessment at a press conference in London on October 8. He reported that since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, more than 750 Russian diplomats have been expelled from Europe, which has considerably weakened Russia’s intelligence capabilities. “Expel them, shut them out,” he declared.

Addressing Iran, McCallum warned of an escalating threat to the UK, describing it as growing at an "unprecedented scale and speed." Since January 2022, MI5 and British police have thwarted 20 Iranian-backed plots posing potentially lethal threats to UK citizens.

In contrast, McCallum’s remarks on China were notably more measured. Politico, a US-based news outlet, noted that McCallum remarked, “China is different.” He explained that the economic ties between China and the UK are integral to Britain’s growth and, consequently, its security.

Nevertheless, McCallum reiterated that China remains “a major risk,” emphasizing the need for careful management of certain aspects of the bilateral relationship. When questioned about the perceived "lack of criticism" toward China, he clarified that he was not minimizing the severity of the Chinese threat, asserting that MI5’s focus “remains unchanged.” He added, “The decisions are complex, and it is up to ministers to make strategic judgments regarding our relationship with China.”

McCallum also highlighted the growing threat of terrorism, particularly from al-Qaida and ISIS. “Although ISIS is not as strong as it was a decade ago, after years of suppression, they have resumed efforts to export terrorism,” he stated, referencing the terrorist attack at a Moscow concert hall in March as a “brutal demonstration of that capability.”

Notably, the UK’s new Labour government appears to be indicating a shift in its China policy. On October 9, Reuters reported, citing four sources, that British Foreign Minister David Lammy plans to visit China next week, aiming to reset UK-China relations. Additionally, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is also considering a visit in the near future to restart what was intended to be annual trade and investment discussions between the two countries.

British officials quoted by Reuters indicated that the Labour government seeks to rectify the previous administration's overly confrontational approach towards China while acknowledging that fundamental differences persist in certain areas.

Mao Ning, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reiterated on July 5 that China’s stance on UK relations remains consistent and clear. As permanent members of the UN Security Council and major global economies, stable and mutually beneficial relations between China and the UK are fundamentally in the interests of both nations. Such relations, she noted, also enable the two countries to jointly address global challenges and promote peace and development. China, she stated, is willing to work with the UK to maintain positive bilateral relations based on mutual respect and cooperation.