Trump did it again. On 21 April, the US president abruptly announced on social media an extension of the ceasefire period with Iran, claiming Pakistan's leader had asked Washington to "hold off on strikes until Iran reaches an unified proposal." Iran promptly denied this, denouncing it as a ploy to "buy time to launch a surprise attack."
Since the US–Iran war broke out, every cycle of Trump talking tough, softening, then cancelling ultimatums has acted like an invisible hand roiling global energy markets. Wall Street has even coined a dedicated term for it: TACO — "Trump Always Chickens Out." Even more troubling are the questions surrounding Trump's eldest son. He holds investments in online prediction platforms that have seen a string of suspiciously prescient, large-scale trades — raising serious concerns about whether members of the political family are profiting from insider information.
From Panic Selling to Bargain Hunting
TACO, Trump Always Chickens Out, describes a now-familiar Trump playbook: issue a catastrophic threat, trigger market panic, then change course before the real economic pain sets in. The "TACO trade" is the strategy born from this pattern — buying on the dip during panic sell-offs and offloading assets once markets rebound, reaping enormous profits in the process.
Some analysts argue that Trump's economic and geopolitical strategy in his second term is to push established norms, rules, and agreements to the brink of collapse — or even past it — and then watch how markets react. If investors barely flinch, it's a green light. If markets plunge, he steps back from the ledge.
Traders Dedicate a Screen Just for Trump's Posts
Energy markets have experienced wild swings since US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February. The most recent episode came on 19 April, when Trump claimed US forces had seized an Iranian-flagged vessel. Oil prices surged immediately — Brent crude jumped over 4% to USD 94.20 per barrel.
An analyst at financial services firm MST Marquee put it bluntly: "Oil markets continue to gyrate in response to oscillating social media posts by the US and Iran, rather than the realities on the ground which remain challenging for oil flows to resume in a rapid fashion." In the early days of the US–Iran conflict, oil and gas volatility increased by roughly 300%. Sebastian Barrack, head of commodities at hedge fund Citadel, revealed he has set up a dedicated screen solely to monitor Trump's social media activity. He cautioned traders to remember that "these messages may not have been fully considered."
The TACO Effect Fuels an Anomalous Market Rally
Since Trump returned to the White House, he has repeatedly threatened to annex Greenland and Canada, topple Venezuela's government, and even floated firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Each time market volatility exceeds an acceptable threshold, he reins in his rhetoric — which in turn reinforces the TACO trade pattern. The clearest example: "Liberation Day" tariffs sent markets into a tailspin, forcing Trump to delay and scale back the measures.
The Financial Times reported that despite the energy security threat posed by the US–Iran war, and US tariffs climbing to historic highs, the S&P 500 has hit an all-time high. The TACO effect is one factor driving this paradox. Investors do not expect the disruption to last, betting instead that the White House has a limited tolerance for turbulence in US bond and equity markets — so they buy the dip.
The New York Times similarly analysed that this reflects a broader psychological shift in markets. Retail investors have risen in influence, and they understand that geopolitical turmoil rarely inflicts lasting damage on equities. Every downturn is now treated as a buying opportunity rather than the start of a prolonged sell-off.
A Hidden Time Bomb: The Shadow of the 1973 Oil Crisis
Make no mistake: Reuters has warned that the risks from the current Middle East conflict may be greater than any seen in recent decades. For investors seeking historical precedent, the 1973–74 oil crisis offers the most relevant parallel. Even if Trump were to announce an end to the war tomorrow, damaged refining capacity, destroyed infrastructure, and disrupted global energy flows cannot be restored by an executive order or a social media post. Returning to pre-war conditions could take months, if not years.
Shipping costs for goods leaving the Middle East and the cost of insuring vessels in the region have surged to unprecedented levels. Even if US–Iran hostilities formally end, these costs are unlikely to return to normal in the near term. Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University, was frank: "The world economy has shown itself capable of shaking off significant shocks like broad US tariffs, so there is room for optimism that it will prove resilient to the fallout of the war on Iran" — though the economic and geopolitical consequences of the Iran war could prove far more severe, he added.
Insider Trading Allegations: Abnormal Trading Surges Ahead of Posts
The BBC investigated and found a recurring pattern: in the hours or even minutes before Trump's posts or media interviews went live, trading volumes across multiple financial markets spiked noticeably on multiple occasions. On 9 March, for instance, Trump gave an interview stating the war was "basically over" — a remark published at 3:16 PM. But 47 minutes earlier, a surge of bearish bets on crude oil futures had already appeared. Oil prices subsequently plunged 25%, and those who entered early walked away with millions.
On 23 March, Trump announced that the US and Iran had engaged in "very good and productive dialogue." Fourteen minutes before that announcement, an unusually large volume of bearish positions appeared in both US crude and Brent crude markets. A similar pattern emerged last April on "Liberation Day": 18 minutes before Trump announced a tariff pause, an anomalously large trade appeared in an S&P 500 index fund, with someone betting over USD 2 million on a market rally. The market subsequently surged, and that trade may have yielded close to USD 20 million in profit.
Online prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have also seen suspicious activity. Before Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was seized by US forces, an account named "Burdensome Mix" placed an early bet that "Maduro would step down before the end of January 2026," staking just USD 32,500 and walking away with USD 436,000 in profit before the account was deleted. In addition, multiple newly created accounts accurately bet on the timing of US airstrikes on Iran and the ceasefire on Polymarket, collectively netting over USD 1.36 million in profit.
Donald Trump Jr. — Trump's eldest son — is both an investor in Polymarket and a member of its advisory board, while also serving as a strategic adviser to Kalshi. This connection has drawn intense scrutiny over whether members of the political family are using insider information for financial gain.
Why Has No One Been Prosecuted?
Some analysts say this situation bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading — that is, someone trading on information not available to the general public. Others argue the situation is more nuanced: some traders have simply become better at anticipating the president's moves.
Since the passage of the US Securities Act of 1933, insider trading has been illegal for most Americans. The prohibition was extended to government officials in 2012, yet no one has been prosecuted under it to date. Paul Oudin, professor at ESSEC Business School, told the BBC a prosecution won’t be carried out if “they can’t figure out who the source of information is.”
In other words, even when every sign points to insider trading, proving that the information originated from within the Trump administration is a near-impossible task.
Deep Throat
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