Global banks raise China's growth forecasts for 2025

Leading global banks have raised their forecasts for China's economic outlook in 2025, citing the continued upward trajectory the world's second largest economy has maintained since the start of the year.

International investment bank Morgan Stanley recently increased its GDP growth forecast for China by 0.5 percentage points, citing the stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter and robust investment momentum in emerging industries.

"China's economy had a good start in the first quarter. Companies are showing a keener interest than last year in investing in sci-tech innovation sectors such as advanced manufacturing, new energy, smart driving, and AI applications in robotics, with investment levels expected to continue rising," said Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley.

Similarly, other major foreign financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, Goldman Sachs, and Nomura, have also adjusted their forecasts upwards, reflecting growing optimism about China's economic outlook.

Research reports highlight that China's economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience and potential across various sectors, thanks to policy support, market dynamism, and ongoing industrial transformation.

"Policies, such as expanding the scope of consumer goods trade-in programs and increasing basic pension benefits and medical subsidies for urban and rural residents, are expected to play a key role in boosting consumer confidence," said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered.

Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, artificial intelligence could contribute 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points annually to China's GDP growth. Meanwhile, HSBC reports that favorable policies in China are giving strong support to technological innovation and significantly boosting corporate confidence, which will contribute to more sustainable and comprehensive economic growth.

The foreign financial institutions generally agree that continued macroeconomic policy support will play a positive role in advancing China's economy expansion.

Global banks raise China's growth forecasts for 2025

Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Thursday presided over a State Council executive meeting that studied work on building a unified national market and reviewed and approved a plan for the development of a modern emergency response system during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030).

Noting that building a unified national market is essential to advancing high-quality development, the meeting called for deepening institutional frameworks in areas such as property rights protection, market access, fair competition, social credit and market exit mechanisms.

The meeting also urged efforts to advance high-standard connectivity of market infrastructure to facilitate smooth economic circulation and effectively reduce logistics costs across society.

Emergency management is critical to protecting people's lives and property, the meeting said. It called for accelerating the development of a modern emergency response system, deepening reform and innovation in emergency management, and improving coordinated response mechanisms.

Efforts should be made to strengthen risk prevention at the source, enhance monitoring, forecasting and early warning, and accelerate a shift in governance toward proactive prevention, according to the meeting.

A draft revision of the Law on the People's Bank of China was also discussed and approved in principle at the meeting, which decided to submit the draft to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for deliberation.

Chinese premier chairs State Council executive meeting